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Old 08-25-2017, 07:14 PM   #101
stinkubus
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by Rizzeedizzee View Post
Trump is focusing on his 30-35% core because his advisors are likely telling him (IMO, correctly) that the 2020 election, and perhaps all elections going forward, will be about winning a plurality of votes, not even close to a majority. Having seen what happened in 2020, more people likely will just say ^(#% it and run as an independent and just forget primaries entirely. With enough of those in the field, his 30-35% could be plenty to win.
Trump supporters votes in congressional primaries are the only thing standing between him and impeachment.
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Old 08-25-2017, 07:17 PM   #102
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Some people think Pence will try to primary Trump in 2020. The funny thing would be if Trump tries to primary President Pence in 2020 after President Pence's pardon protecting Trump from indictment for the criminal activities that got him impeached. If Trump were impeached and pardoned would anything prohibit his running for President again?


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Don't think so, and there has already been a POTUS who served two non consecutive terms. Mike Pence would get slaughtered in a national primary, imo. His appeal is limited to the areas of the country which were on the short list for shooting locations for the film "Deliverance".
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Old 08-25-2017, 07:34 PM   #103
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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AI vrs Trump in a debate

'Listen, you orange sack of lipids, there's one thing I forgot to tell you. I grew up in the woods!'
I laughed at this
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Old 08-25-2017, 07:37 PM   #104
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

I want Warren to win the primary
I think Booker or Warren will win the primary
I think the Dem will win the presidency and it won't be close
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Old 08-25-2017, 07:42 PM   #105
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

It's going to be moot if the Dems can't turn the tide at the state level by 2020. Another round of redistricting that they won't control and they will be gerrymandered into irrelevancy for decades.
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Old 08-26-2017, 04:44 AM   #106
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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It's going to be moot if the Dems can't turn the tide at the state level by 2020. Another round of redistricting that they won't control and they will be gerrymandered into irrelevancy for decades.
+1. They're not winning the battleground states with a woman or anyone of Jewish descent, the whites will show up in numbers to ensure that. Maybe Booker or the Rock if they can get enough voter turnout by minorities in those swing states. The Democratic party is unfortunately perpetuating the stereotype and LOL at Hillary you can throw that money into the campfire.
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Old 08-26-2017, 06:33 PM   #107
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

If the Rock runs he will crush everyone imo
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Old 09-03-2017, 10:08 AM   #108
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

I love Joe Kennedy. Grandson of Robert. Go view some of his you tube videos, follow him on social media. He will be President someday. Why not 2020?

He has walked the progressive walk. He has chosen to help people all his life. He genuinely wants to better peoples lives. He comes off as an earnest man wanting to make a difference. Check for yourself.
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Old 09-03-2017, 11:20 AM   #109
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

I don't know him, but he'd have to be uncredibly super awesome for it to not be completely stupid. The Dems running a Kennedy would be almost as bad as running a Clinton.
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Old 09-03-2017, 11:26 AM   #110
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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If the Rock runs he will crush everyone imo
It's absurd we're talking about The Rock as a potential Democratic candidate for President

But i'd be fine with it at this point to guarantee Trump goes down in flames, good luck trying to describe the Rock as un-manly or try and one up him on the debate stage with one liners when he's The Rock and Dwayne Johnson does generally seem like a good person.

Warren is a risk but would be an excellent President. I love Bernie but he's too old and has too much baggage, but it should be an economic progressive they run. Booker's fine, but not particularly exciting.

Mark Cuban would be interesting too. Booker is the only certainty to run imo and Warren is obviously likely to if she thinks she can win

It's retarded that you have to go full celebrity to lock in the win over Trump but the most guaranteed win of all time is Dwayne Johnson if he's actually serious about running for President and decides to do it as a Democrat.

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Old 09-03-2017, 11:31 AM   #111
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

If it had to be an actor I'd want Matt Damon.
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Old 09-03-2017, 01:05 PM   #112
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

According to The Hill, Obama's people are pushing Deval Patrick.
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Old 09-03-2017, 01:25 PM   #113
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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It's going to be moot if the Dems can't turn the tide at the state level by 2020. Another round of redistricting that they won't control and they will be gerrymandered into irrelevancy for decades.
I understand and appreciate the cynical take but there are theoretical limits to gerrymandering. The 2020 Census is also going to erode the Presidential electoral power of the Rust Belt states full of whites the GOP is now ascendant in, and give more electoral power to the southwest and Sun Belt states where the Democrats are more competitive. GOP is still also in demographic death -- they are reliant on a bunch of older voters and not doing much to win over people born after 1965. Effects of the 2020 Census won't be seen in 2020 election but the point remains.

It's a complicated picture. Some dourness is appropriate. "Irrelevancy for decades" is a hottake. The GOP has some pretty deep problems here and their redistricting tricks can't fade the deeper problems with racial minorities and younger voters. That's what the voter suppression schemes are for. But to bet on their long term durability is tricky too.

tl;dr summary: state races are critical, gerrymandering effects are real, GOP can't truly institute minority rule with just gerrymandering but with more systemic changes and other failures (e.g., voter suppression, collapse of judicial independence, lack of a left response).
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Old 09-03-2017, 06:09 PM   #114
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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I don't know him, but he'd have to be uncredibly super awesome for it to not be completely stupid. The Dems running a Kennedy would be almost as bad as running a Clinton.
I disagree. My mom typically leans right, but hates Trump. She'd be considered part of the religious right, but she didn't like the way he spoke of women. She loved JFK, though, and speaks fondly of him whenever he comes up... I think she'd like Joe Kennedy, and I'd imagine a lot of people who were teenagers and young adults when JFK won would have fond memories of him and be predisposed to like Joe Kennedy.

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I understand and appreciate the cynical take but there are theoretical limits to gerrymandering. The 2020 Census is also going to erode the Presidential electoral power of the Rust Belt states full of whites the GOP is now ascendant in, and give more electoral power to the southwest and Sun Belt states where the Democrats are more competitive. GOP is still also in demographic death -- they are reliant on a bunch of older voters and not doing much to win over people born after 1965. Effects of the 2020 Census won't be seen in 2020 election but the point remains.

It's a complicated picture. Some dourness is appropriate. "Irrelevancy for decades" is a hottake. The GOP has some pretty deep problems here and their redistricting tricks can't fade the deeper problems with racial minorities and younger voters. That's what the voter suppression schemes are for. But to bet on their long term durability is tricky too.

tl;dr summary: state races are critical, gerrymandering effects are real, GOP can't truly institute minority rule with just gerrymandering but with more systemic changes and other failures (e.g., voter suppression, collapse of judicial independence, lack of a left response).
Regarding the bolded - that may be true if there is a fair and accurate 2020 Census. But, as one example, Texas has thus far grown twice as fast as the country overall since 2010, while New York has barely grown. Losing an electoral vote or two in New York, while 3-4 go to Texas, is very possible.

Making it worse, to summarize the article linked, Republicans are trying to block the use of predictive data/modeling and underfund the Census so it relies mostly on direct mail response and voluntary online submissions. These methods undersample minorities, and in conjunction with putting the fear of God into immigrants through ICE, Latinos are more likely to try to duck the Census.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...o-fail-w492666

Anecdotally, I dated a girl who worked on the 2010 Census, and she said minorities were more likely to try to avoid being counted because they didn't trust the government...

Basically, the demographic trends favor the left overall, but the right has the power and can use Census tricks, voter suppression and gerrymandering to hold it.
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Old 09-03-2017, 07:54 PM   #115
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Cuse,

How did your mom feel about Ted?
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Old 09-03-2017, 08:53 PM   #116
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Cuse,

How did your mom feel about Ted?
Probably doesn't have a strong opinion about him either way, she wouldn't have ever had an opportunity to vote for or against him since she didn't vote in Democratic primaries, and didn't follow politics closely enough to know a lot about him as an out-of-state Senator.
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Old 09-03-2017, 09:05 PM   #117
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Ted was a national figure and a favorite target of conservatives.
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Old 09-03-2017, 09:33 PM   #118
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Ted was a national figure and a favorite target of conservatives.
I know, but my mother is the type to only pay a little attention, usually in the lead up to the election. Most of her political info would come from church, too, and the main reason she was conservative was that she was pro-life. So she'd research a few issues on the races she'd vote in, and watch presidential debates, and that was about it.
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Old 09-03-2017, 09:47 PM   #119
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

I know it's American civic duty theory 101, but the idea of people giving a lot of weight to the debates, especially people who don't generally follow the issues and are trying to decide who is right during the debate, is pretty loltastic.
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Old 09-03-2017, 10:10 PM   #120
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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I know it's American civic duty theory 101, but the idea of people giving a lot of weight to the debates, especially people who don't generally follow the issues and are trying to decide who is right during the debate, is pretty loltastic.
I agree, but that's how a huge chunk of voters do it... Probably the majority of voters.
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Old 09-03-2017, 10:28 PM   #121
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

**** Booker can suck a d he is horrible.
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Old 09-04-2017, 09:41 AM   #122
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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I don't know him, but he'd have to be uncredibly super awesome for it to not be completely stupid. The Dems running a Kennedy would be almost as bad as running a Clinton.
Why is that? Its been 40 years.

He's not some entitled rich kid. He's been working with the poor and speaking out on progressive issues his whole life. Check his bio. Check what he is saying and advocating.
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Old 09-04-2017, 09:55 AM   #123
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Regarding the bolded - that may be true if there is a fair and accurate 2020 Census. But, as one example, Texas has thus far grown twice as fast as the country overall since 2010, while New York has barely grown. Losing an electoral vote or two in New York, while 3-4 go to Texas, is very possible.

Making it worse, to summarize the article linked, Republicans are trying to block the use of predictive data/modeling and underfund the Census so it relies mostly on direct mail response and voluntary online submissions. These methods undersample minorities, and in conjunction with putting the fear of God into immigrants through ICE, Latinos are more likely to try to duck the Census.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics...o-fail-w492666

Anecdotally, I dated a girl who worked on the 2010 Census, and she said minorities were more likely to try to avoid being counted because they didn't trust the government...

Basically, the demographic trends favor the left overall, but the right has the power and can use Census tricks, voter suppression and gerrymandering to hold it.
Sure, all true. Note that the GOP share of Presidential vote in Texas has been on a downward trend since its high point in 2000 (GWB native son effects obviously may have an impact ldo). The bolded is likely. Also possible: the Democrats are truly competitive in Texas by 2024/2028. The Democrats were either closer or basically equivalent with the GOP at the Presidential vote level in Georgia and Texas compared to Iowa and Ohio; and the GOP has been scheming with voter suppression stuff for a while now. If we still think Iowa and Ohio (and New Mexico and Virginia) are swing states, then so too have Georgia and Texas entered the picture due to the effects we're talking about.

So: the right is already using voter suppression and gerrymandering. It's good to be very aware of the effects and fight back hard against them but casting it as some unbeatable plan is also not useful, nor is it true that their plans are uniformly successful or effective. The courts have pushed back on some of the GOP plans. And entities like Trump's voter fraud commission show the GOP is pretty ham-handed about it anyway.

The point is that it's not clear that GOP disenfranchisement schemes are going to override the demographic pressures they face, so that "Democrats irrelevant" for decades remains a hottake. The GOP does have a lot of power and not that much democratic power to back it up, but the Republican party looks like it's pretty feckless and in disarray; these aren't the Harlem Globetrotters of politics out there even if the Democrats remain the Washington Generals.
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Old 09-04-2017, 09:15 PM   #124
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

No one
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Old 09-04-2017, 10:36 PM   #125
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Sure, all true. Note that the GOP share of Presidential vote in Texas has been on a downward trend since its high point in 2000 (GWB native son effects obviously may have an impact ldo). The bolded is likely. Also possible: the Democrats are truly competitive in Texas by 2024/2028. The Democrats were either closer or basically equivalent with the GOP at the Presidential vote level in Georgia and Texas compared to Iowa and Ohio; and the GOP has been scheming with voter suppression stuff for a while now. If we still think Iowa and Ohio (and New Mexico and Virginia) are swing states, then so too have Georgia and Texas entered the picture due to the effects we're talking about.
The bolded seems very optimistic.

https://www.270towin.com/states/Texas

2016 43.2%-52.2% (+9)
2012 41.4%-57.2% (+16)
2008 43.7%-55.5% (+12)
2004 38.2%-61.1% (+23)
2000 38.0%-59.3% (+21)

The charismatic Obama only got -12 and -16 while the nut-low Trump still got +9.
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