It's easy to see him running. Harder to see if he can build momentum.

Good question.

As a rule-of-thumb, I think that laws should be enacted as local as possible. For example, if I'm a barber and the city in which I choose to do business has a license requirement to cut hair, I can start my business in a city that doesn't have that requirement.

I believe that most states have a state income tax, but some do not. If I don't want to pay state income taxes, I move to a state that doesn't have a income tax. Unfortunately, I can't escape a federal income tax without leaving the country.

In general I'm not a fan of many laws, but I can choose to live somewhere with fewer laws. But I can't do that with federal laws.

Hope that helps to clarify my position.

Unless the federal government finds a substantial new income stream and/or significantly reduces spending, I think bankruptcy is a realistic possibility.

The rise of new currencies like Bitcoin are probably going to accelerate, allowing people to hide their money from the government.

Almost nobody prominent in either of our major parties have any serious plan to reduce the debt. Mr. Trump is actually increasing the debt with his hawkish foreign policy and tax cuts.

The US government cannot go bankrupt or become insolvent due to debt which is denominated in US dollars.

Who wudda thunk it, right?

That's technically true, since the government could pay off all its debt by printing more money.

I guess "technically" post WW-I Germany didn't go bankrupt, but their currency essentially became almost worthless which plunged them into a deep economic morass.

The beauty of fiat currency.

At some level the Beto discussion may be irrelevant. Like in the event that he wins, I'd rather he not run due to not wanting to give up an EXTREMELY valuable Senate seat.

But if Beto wants to be president, is there a better time to run than 2020 after winning Texas in 2018? Probably not. So unless the party apparatus puts a **** ton of pressure on him to prevent that, it seems like he'll do it if he wants to be POTUS.

(While I don't want him to run in that scenario, I also don't want the DNC to try to block him - at least not beyond a sit down to discuss how valuable his seat is and how he'd be given a prominent administration position if he lost it in 2024 to keep him relevant for 2028 and beyond.)

The Pres candidate doesn't matter that much. Everyone remembers Barry O as a legendarily excellent candidate, but he won by only 7 points against a weak ticket at a time where the fundamentals were terrible for Republicans. Candidate quality is prob worth +-2 points. Hypothetically, maybe Senator Beto is fully +2, but I'm sure you can find someone who is +1.7 to run instead without giving up a Senate seat.

Fundamentals were strong for Republicans in 2012 and Obama still crushed it.

Don't think fundamentals should ever be considered strong against an incumbent Pres. That counts for a ton. We have had three consecutive two term Pres's, and it would probably be five consecutive two term Pres's if Ross Perot didn't exist.

When the economy is in a recession, the incumbent is always at a disadvantage.

Also, I really think beating the establishment favorite in the 2008 primary was solid campaigning.

I was thinking about this, and I believe he can gain the prominence he needs by losing a close race if doing so raises his profile enough to become a major house leader in the Dem party. I don't know if Minority Leader (or Majority Leader if the Dems re-take the House) is in the cards, but I could easily see him becoming the whip.

Or maybe if Pelosi or Ellison become Speaker and he becomes Majority Leader, that could springboard him to a national profile.

It's still a heavy lift to get to POTUS from the House, but if it's going to happen I could see that being the path.

Isn't he resigning from his house seat?

So how about an even money bet (with interest bearing escrow) as to whether the US bond rating will drop below CCC at any point in the next 5 years. If it goes CC, C or D indicating bankruptcy you win if not I win.

Edit : I can probably personally get up to $5,000 for this. If you want to go higher I bet I'll be able find people willing to take my side.

Cite?

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08...onal-campaign/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...18#District_16

Well I guess that changes the situation then. Unless he gets a seat from somewhere else.

Yeah, I'm having a real tough time envisioning a reasonable path of:

1. 3-term house member
2. Loses bid for senate
3. ???
4. Plausible option for president

Still a better resume than Trump's though.

DNC panel adopts rule requiring candidates to run, serve as a Democrat

lol dnc, just what the party needs, more needless conflict

Jfc.

Seems reasonable to me. I never understood how a socialist could run for the democratic nomination anyway.