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Who will run against Trump in 2020? Who will run against Trump in 2020?

03-07-2018 , 10:56 PM
I spend considerable amounts of time decoding what should be relatively straightforward business related emails. Way too many people cannot put simple thoughts into writing, often resulting in multiple follow-up emails just to make sure there are no misunderstandings.

Never mind good creative writing.
03-07-2018 , 11:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
I guess I have to explain that if it was agreed that Rice would easily beat Trump the next step would be to come up with a candidate that captures as many of her attributes as possible without the downsides of her unwillingness to run and her too many unacceptable positions.
What attributes would the hypothetical winning candidate be looking to capture other than Rice's policy positions?
03-07-2018 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jbrochu
I spend considerable amounts of time decoding what should be relatively straightforward business related emails. Way too many people cannot put simple thoughts into writing, often resulting in multiple follow-up emails just to make sure there are no misunderstandings.
You are describing a widely-shared experience.
03-07-2018 , 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
I guess I have to explain that if it was agreed that Rice would easily beat Trump the next step would be to come up with a candidate that captures as many of her attributes as possible without the downsides of her unwillingness to run and her too many unacceptable positions. Its all going to be irrelevant soon enough though as more and more countries are pleasant enough so that the smartest of their citizens no longer dream of comng here to help prop up mediocre minds who think spelling and writing skills equate to intelligence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
The point was that she is a Nowadays very rare) moderate Republican who would get a third or so of Republican votes. I already wrote that Oprah would also have a good chance but she wouldn't have this edge that could possibly make up for the edge Oprah has. But in both cases being black has nothing to do with it as it could hurt as much as help. People who think that their race it was my major consideration are simply exceptionally stupid.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
What attributes would the hypothetical winning candidate be looking to capture other than Rice's policy positions?
That's easy, we just need to find a moderate Republican that holds fewer Republican views but that would still somehow get 1/3 of Republican votes.

Why are you people so stupid?
03-10-2018 , 10:07 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/10/polit...ent/index.html

Good news for the Democrats if true.
03-10-2018 , 10:11 PM
Care to explain why it's good news?
03-10-2018 , 10:25 PM
Because Warren would make it a top priority to reduce income inequality, that's not something the Democratic party really wants. Bad news for progressives, but yeah, good news for Democrats.
03-10-2018 , 10:36 PM
Mainly because I don't think she can win. (Full disclosure -- I don't think any progressive candidate can win the general, but I don't think a progressive candidate can win even the primary unless the progressive vote is consolidated behind a single candidate.) I also expect that a general election between EW and Orange would be even more of an insult contest that any election involving Orange is bound to be.

FWIW, I'm not a Warren hater. I think she is plenty smart and well-intentioned. But I think there is a lot of visceral hatred out there for her that cannot be eradicated, much of it for the wrong reasons..
03-10-2018 , 11:12 PM
If you don't think she can win the primary why would it matter that she's not running?
03-11-2018 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkubus
If you don't think she can win the primary why would it matter that she's not running?
Where did I say she couldn't win the primary? I definitely think she could win the primary, especially if the progressive vote is not split. But I don't like her chances in a general election.
03-11-2018 , 09:41 AM
The US is not ready for a female president. If Hillary was male, she would have beat Trump bigly believe me.
03-11-2018 , 11:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjam!n
Why Rice isn't regarded as an incompetent idiot baffles me? She was National Security Advisor during both the greatest intelligence failure and the greatest strategic blunder of American history.
Rice as a Dem? She has no charisma. She was wrong on Iraq and a lot of issues. Why would Dems picj her? She has the George W. stain all over her.

I'm on the record as wanting a policy candidate. But, they also have to have a little charisma. I'm sticking with Joe Kennedy.
03-11-2018 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matty Lice
The US is not ready for a female president. If Hillary was male, she would have beat Trump bigly believe me.
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03-11-2018 , 12:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Where did I say she couldn't win the primary? I definitely think she could win the primary, especially if the progressive vote is not split. But I don't like her chances in a general election.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Mainly because I don't think she can win. (Full disclosure -- I don't think any progressive candidate can win the general, but I don't think a progressive candidate can win even the primary unless the progressive vote is consolidated behind a single candidate.) I also expect that a general election between EW and Orange would be even more of an insult contest that any election involving Orange is bound to be.
See bolded.
03-11-2018 , 01:08 PM
A progressive would have a better chance in the general than in the dem primaries.
03-11-2018 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
What attributes would the hypothetical winning candidate be looking to capture other than Rice's policy positions?
The balls to crush 17 other candidates + Hilary... without which all you have is roadkill like Jeb Bush.
03-11-2018 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zer0sum
The balls to crush 17 other candidates + Hilary... without which all you have is roadkill like Jeb Bush.
That's Rice's main selling point as a candidate? Her huge brass balls? OK.
03-11-2018 , 04:09 PM
i don't see how it takes "balls" to pander to racist white people in the usa. those are the ones who own most of the guns and who end up committing most of the murders/terrorism. it would be brave to stand up to the terrorists. hillary has balls.
03-11-2018 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkubus
See bolded.
Yes. If you completely ignore the part where I said "unless the progressive vote is consolidated behind a single candidate."

Do I really need to spell out what I am saying? OK.

If no progressive candidate makes a serious attempt to win the primary, then it goes without saying that a conventional Democratic candidate will win the primary. If multiple progressive candidates make a serious attempt to win the primary, then I believe that a conventional Democratic candidate is highly likely to win the primary. If progressives rally early around a single candidate, then I believe a progressive candidate very well could win the primary.

If a progressive Democratic candidate comes out of the primary, I believe that candidate could defeat Trump, but very likely will lose to Trump, especially if that candidate is Elizabeth Warren.

If a more conventional Democrat comes out of the primary, I believe that candidate very likely will defeat Trump in the general, but could lose.

I readily concede that (i) all this depends on who the "conventional" Democratic candidate is, and (ii) the line between conventional and progressive is blurry.

I think that a lot of people are wrongly assuming that because a very conventional Democratic candidate to Trump, a progressive candidate is a better choice to beat Trump.
03-11-2018 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo

I think that a lot of people are wrongly assuming that because a very conventional Democratic candidate to Trump, a progressive candidate is a better choice to beat Trump.
It looks like you're missing a few words in that sentence, but if you're trying to paint Hilary as a "very conventional Democratic Candidate", you're way off.

She was the first woman major party candidate for president. That alone takes her out of conventional territory. She may have espoused conventional policies, but she was definitely not a conventional candidate.
03-11-2018 , 04:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
A progressive would have a better chance in the general than in the dem primaries.
What are your thoughts on Garcetti? I'm guessing he is way too Clinton-wing of the party for your taste.
03-11-2018 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LFS
What are your thoughts on Garcetti? I'm guessing he is way too Clinton-wing of the party for your taste.
As far as I can tell he's cool. The biggest fault of the Clinton wing is being warhawks and I guess that doesn't come up much as a mayor, so who knows about that. You mentioned his "failures" on the homeless, but that's not just an LA issue. Have you been to Portland or Santa Cruz lately? And, as you noted, LA structurally has a weak mayor.

Does he seem like a disingenuous suit mouthing popular platforms while making sure that they don't actually become policy? Hard to tell, but my impression (not based on a lot) is probably not.

There's some misperception about my policy positions. That's partly because people think having one extreme position (say 'open borders') means having all extreme positions and partly because I argue a lot with certain posters about their Third Way kind of positions. That's partly out of my distaste for it, but partly because that's about all that's available to actually disagree with around here.

Last edited by microbet; 03-11-2018 at 05:10 PM.
03-11-2018 , 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Melkerson
It looks like you're missing a few words in that sentence, but if you're trying to paint Hilary as a "very conventional Democratic Candidate", you're way off.

She was the first woman major party candidate for president. That alone takes her out of conventional territory. She may have espoused conventional policies, but she was definitely not a conventional candidate.
I left out the word "lost". My mistake.

Except for being a woman, HRC struck me as a very conventional Democratic candidate -- famous last name, a bit wonkish, long history in government, no important policy departures from the previous Democratic administration, etc.
03-11-2018 , 05:59 PM
Let Garcetti run and be elected Governor of Calif. Until he does, he's a nonentity. If he can't beat Gavin Newsome, he's a nonentity. Newsome's so charismatic that he couldn't even convince his wife to share his views.

Quote:
In December 2001, Newsom married Kimberly Guilfoyle, a former San Francisco prosecutor and legal commentator for Court TV, CNN, and MSNBC and who is now a prominent personality on Fox News Channel. The couple married at Saint Ignatius Catholic Church on the campus of the University of San Francisco, where Guilfoyle attended law school. The couple appeared in the September 2004 issue of Harper's Bazaar, a fashion magazine, in a spread of them at the Getty mansion with the title the "New Kennedys."[3][91] In January 2005, they jointly filed for divorce, citing "difficulties due to their careers on opposite coasts."[92] Their divorce was finalized on February 28, 2006.[93]
03-11-2018 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
I left out the word "lost". My mistake.

Except for being a woman, HRC struck me as a very conventional Democratic candidate -- famous last name, a bit wonkish, long history in government, no important policy departures from the previous Democratic administration, etc.
I agree with all of that, it's just that the being a woman thing was highly unconventional, and quite likely the difference maker.

      
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