Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeC2012
Given the current crop of candidates, what do we think Trump's "break even" approval rating is--the one where if he attains it (and he runs) he's a favorite to win in 2020?
It looks like he was around 45 right after the election, this seems like a good estimate to me. Thoughts?
In a vacuum, I think it's higher, because I expect turnout to be higher among D/I, and lower among R... But the problem is that if Trump is still in office at that point, the amount of voter suppression they may be able to manage - and the amount of influence Russia will have, may have a more significant impact than the increased turnout.
So in those circumstances, I could even see him winning with sub-40% approval.