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Old 08-06-2017, 06:39 PM   #26
JoltinJake
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
The other dark horse I don't want to name since I'd like to bet on him (it's a he), but I think he has an excellent chance and will be very mispriced by the market when betting on 2020 begins.
Jason Kander fits this description for me.

He doesn't have a position to jump from right now, but I'm not sure that kind of thing matters anymore. He's got the goods. Dunno if he'll run this time, though. He's only 36.

I like Warren and Booker otherwise. It's going to be a crowded field so people who stand out will do better. The Gillibrand / Kaine types won't stand a chance IMO.

Not sure what happens if Bernie and/or Biden runs, though. Could be complete chaos.
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Old 08-06-2017, 07:29 PM   #27
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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If there's one thing this last election taught us, it's that charisma is a must have. If you don't have that, you've got nothing.

I think Cory Booker has to be considered the favorite, but he's got baggage - it's kind of an open secret that he's gay, and that might not play well in the battleground states. However, he's got the charisma, presence, and intellect to get the job done.

One of my dark horses is Martin Heinrich. I think he's very unlikely, but I want to keep an eye on him - I think there's a good chance he'll end up as the VP pick of whoever the eventual nominee is.

The other dark horse I don't want to name since I'd like to bet on him (it's a he), but I think he has an excellent chance and will be very mispriced by the market when betting on 2020 begins.

I think the Rock could actually win (unlikely but possible) - if there's one thing this last election proved, it's that we are an intellectually shallow and reality TV oriented culture. He's got a massively positive Q score.

Kamala Harris is DOA. People like to talk her up because it's a good way to virtue signal, but putting aside the potential merits of her candidacy (I personally don't like her, but to each his own), she would have basically zero chance in a general election and I can't see her winning the nomination either.
There are rumors floating around that Cory is gay. It shouldn't matter one iota to anyone with a functioning brain cell, but regardless, it's nothing but innuendo anyway.

Heinrich is an interesting guy.

Not really sure why Kamala would have "zero" chance in the general election. Is there any Hillary voter anywhere who'd switch from her to Trump? Hell, the fact that she's a woman of color alone probably flips Michigan to her, given that the reason HRC lost it was depressed turnout on the D side, mostly from minorities. It's not like Trump managed some massive groundswell of support there; his raw vote total (2.279m) was LESS than GWB got (2.314m) in a losing effort in 2004.
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Old 08-06-2017, 07:41 PM   #28
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Couple questions:

1) Who do you want to win the democratic primary?
2) Who do you think will actually win the democratic primary?
3) Who will win the 2020 election.. Trump? Some other republican (Assuming Trump doesnt make it 4 years)? or a democrat?
Much too early to make projections, but what the hell. If I had to pick right now....

1) Jeff Merkley
2) Cory Booker (vomit)
3) The democrat. Trump's numbers are in the toilet now, with no national crises and a still rising stock market.
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Old 08-06-2017, 08:05 PM   #29
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb View Post
There are rumors floating around that Cory is gay. It shouldn't matter one iota to anyone with a functioning brain cell, but regardless, it's nothing but innuendo anyway.

Heinrich is an interesting guy.

Not really sure why Kamala would have "zero" chance in the general election. Is there any Hillary voter anywhere who'd switch from her to Trump? Hell, the fact that she's a woman of color alone probably flips Michigan to her, given that the reason HRC lost it was depressed turnout on the D side, mostly from minorities. It's not like Trump managed some massive groundswell of support there; his raw vote total (2.279m) was LESS than GWB got (2.314m) in a losing effort in 2004.
I agree it shouldn't matter if Cory Booker is gay or not, but if people with functioning brains determined who became President, Trump wouldn't have gotten elected. I think it matters a lot, but I don't think it's insurmountable.

As for Kamala: She has basically zero chance for a number of reasons. First of all, she's not a particularly good politician. She's kind of stilted and scripted as a speaker, which is exactly the sort of thing people hate - people want authenticity, and she doesn't project that.

As far as getting elected to the Senate, she got elected in a state that Democrats always win where she was the overwhelming favorite of the Democratic establishment. Her opponent was Loretta Sanchez, who probably set the all time record for fewest functioning brain cells in a Senate candidate and was way out of her league in running for Senate. Loretta struggled to raise funds and made a number of unforced errors on the campaign, so in my opinion it wasn't an impressive win at all.

So to summarize, she's gotten to the Senate by being connected behind the scenes in a heavily blue state, being seen as an effective attorney general, and by essentially being anointed by the DnC establishment (kind of like how Hillary got elected in New York, except substitute AG for First Lady.)

Now, as to why she's unelectable in a Presidential election: Besides being a poor retail politician, she is both a minority and a woman. The country isn't nearly as progressive as you might like to think that it is - I think there are an awful lot of people who voted for Hillary (a white woman) who wouldn't vote for Kamala (a minority woman.) I don't like saying that, but I think you have to look at the world for how it actually is and now how you might wish it to be.

But most importantly (and this is what precludes any possibility of her ever being elected President): She was Willie Brown's mistress (a married black man who was the former mayor of SF). Willie Brown allegedly did a lot of favors for her over the years to help her advance her political career, and even if there is no fire there, there is more than enough smoke for the Republicans to torpedo her campaign. Watch "Get Me Roger Stone" on Netflix - this is the sort of adversary that you have to deal with if you want to become President of the United States, and there's no way she could ever overcome that.

So, I hate to say it, but my argument for why she has zero chance is basically as follows: 1.) She's not as impressive of a candidate as the Left thinks she is, 2.) America is a racist and sexist place, and 3.) The affair with Willie Brown is a fatal flaw that she will never be able to overcome.
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Old 08-06-2017, 08:30 PM   #30
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Everyone

I mean the bar is set so low that even The Rock mentioned running.

Personally, I'm cheering for Kirsten Gillenbrand
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Old 08-06-2017, 08:43 PM   #31
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

So if we get 8 years of a gay black president after that we should basically expect that Nazi Spencer guy to be the republican nomination, right?
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Old 08-06-2017, 08:44 PM   #32
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

It is mind boggling how badly Kander did in that case. Wtf is wrong with those people?
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Old 08-06-2017, 10:58 PM   #33
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by Malachii View Post
I agree it shouldn't matter if Cory Booker is gay or not, but if people with functioning brains determined who became President, Trump wouldn't have gotten elected. I think it matters a lot, but I don't think it's insurmountable.

As for Kamala: She has basically zero chance for a number of reasons. First of all, she's not a particularly good politician. She's kind of stilted and scripted as a speaker, which is exactly the sort of thing people hate - people want authenticity, and she doesn't project that.

As far as getting elected to the Senate, she got elected in a state that Democrats always win where she was the overwhelming favorite of the Democratic establishment. Her opponent was Loretta Sanchez, who probably set the all time record for fewest functioning brain cells in a Senate candidate and was way out of her league in running for Senate. Loretta struggled to raise funds and made a number of unforced errors on the campaign, so in my opinion it wasn't an impressive win at all.

So to summarize, she's gotten to the Senate by being connected behind the scenes in a heavily blue state, being seen as an effective attorney general, and by essentially being anointed by the DnC establishment (kind of like how Hillary got elected in New York, except substitute AG for First Lady.)

Now, as to why she's unelectable in a Presidential election: Besides being a poor retail politician, she is both a minority and a woman. The country isn't nearly as progressive as you might like to think that it is - I think there are an awful lot of people who voted for Hillary (a white woman) who wouldn't vote for Kamala (a minority woman.) I don't like saying that, but I think you have to look at the world for how it actually is and now how you might wish it to be.

But most importantly (and this is what precludes any possibility of her ever being elected President): She was Willie Brown's mistress (a married black man who was the former mayor of SF). Willie Brown allegedly did a lot of favors for her over the years to help her advance her political career, and even if there is no fire there, there is more than enough smoke for the Republicans to torpedo her campaign. Watch "Get Me Roger Stone" on Netflix - this is the sort of adversary that you have to deal with if you want to become President of the United States, and there's no way she could ever overcome that.

So, I hate to say it, but my argument for why she has zero chance is basically as follows: 1.) She's not as impressive of a candidate as the Left thinks she is, 2.) America is a racist and sexist place, and 3.) The affair with Willie Brown is a fatal flaw that she will never be able to overcome.
Agree with all this and didn't even know the Willie Brown thing.
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Old 08-06-2017, 11:02 PM   #34
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by SuperUberBob View Post
Everyone

I mean the bar is set so low that even The Rock mentioned running.

Personally, I'm cheering for Kirsten Gillenbrand
If The Rock is a semi-serious contender, I'd like to throw a vote at Charles Barkley.
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Old 08-06-2017, 11:03 PM   #35
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Of course, I've made no secret that I'm ready for AI to run this ****, so Zuck I guess. Unless Musk is willing to give up his three hours of sleep a night and win the presidency.
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Old 08-06-2017, 11:47 PM   #36
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by Ineedaride2 View Post
If The Rock is a semi-serious contender, I'd like to throw a vote at Charles Barkley.
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Of course, I've made no secret that I'm ready for AI to run this ****
So I'm confused.

Are you a proponent of Barkley, or Iverson?
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Old 08-06-2017, 11:55 PM   #37
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Practice.. we talking bout practice.. debate prep
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Old 08-07-2017, 12:01 AM   #38
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

AI vrs Trump in a debate

'Listen, you orange sack of lipids, there's one thing I forgot to tell you. I grew up in the woods!'
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Old 08-07-2017, 01:08 AM   #39
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Booker is the bet here imo. Young and seems to want it. Rousing speaker. Telegenic. Black candidate is a very good way for Dems to get out the black vote they need to win.

Warren is pretty old and I don't think she's all that interested.

Michelle is a sucker bet for wishful thinkers, she is not running.
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Old 08-07-2017, 04:12 AM   #40
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

I think Biden and Bernie are going to run with one of them getting the nomination but man are they old.

Also think Kasich might try to get the nomination if Trump is still around.
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Old 08-07-2017, 04:26 AM   #41
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Rumours that Jamie Dimon is up for it.
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Old 08-07-2017, 05:30 AM   #42
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

UK citizen here - why isn't Bernie higher up that list?

Surely the cluster**** of the last election might have people thinking that he was actually the best option...
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Old 08-07-2017, 05:35 AM   #43
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

he's about 90 years old
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Old 08-07-2017, 07:22 AM   #44
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Isn't that like a qualifying criteria of being American prez?

Maybe I selectively looked for it but I remember a **** tonne of posts from people saying Obama was too young...
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Old 08-07-2017, 07:38 AM   #45
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

avg prez age is about 55. obama was 47

drumpf is the oldest ever at 70

bern would be 79 on inauguration day
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Old 08-07-2017, 08:58 AM   #46
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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So I'm confused.

Are you a proponent of Barkley, or Iverson?
Well played.
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:02 AM   #47
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Sounds reasonable.

Surprised Bill Gates has no odds...
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:31 AM   #48
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Unibet's offering Kim Kardashian at 501/1. Seems like free money
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:40 AM   #49
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Bernie Sanders is 75. Four years older than Trump, an obese, dementia-addled frailboy who is afraid of stairs. Bernie will be underpriced because gamblers will largely be upper class finance types who have convinced themselves he can't win because "too old." Yeah, that's the ticket. Too old.
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Old 08-07-2017, 09:52 AM   #50
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

according to sources on the ground, your late 70s/early 80s are spent feeling tired, aching, and forgetting to take your various medicines. also every couple of months you wake up and another random body part is permanently knackered for no particular reason

i dont think he will feel up to running for prez. will be v impressed if he does
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