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Old 02-21-2019, 12:07 PM   #4151
MrWookie
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by Inso0 View Post
Because 10% is a suspect number, and enough people have decided that they aren't willing to turn over 100% of the control over their healthcare to the government to potentially shave a couple of points off the cost.

Also, who are these currently poor uninsured people? If you aren't covered right now, it must be by choice. It has never been easier to obtain subsidized healthcare coverage than it is today.
They are in your backyard.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:31 PM   #4152
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink.

A study just came out on this from the Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy out of UW Madison.

Highlights:

Wisconsin doesn't have a coverage gap. Those who would move to Medicaid already have access to subsidized coverage.

Expanding Medicaid will increase the cost of healthcare on Wisconsinites with private insurance, on average, by $177 per year – up to $700 for a family of four.

Emergency room visits would actually increase in Wisconsin, by over 52,000 visits per year.

In total, Medicaid expansion is expected to cost Wisconsin over $1 billion per year – borne in large part by increases in private sector healthcare costs.

Even when ‘savings’ to the state are included – Medicaid expansion will cost Wisconsin $600 million per year.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:43 PM   #4153
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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What do you think the correct % of passport ownership to be?
More than 5%, or more specifically - post Black Friday if a person wants to play in online poker, he or she should be able to provide some proof that they actually exist as a human. I was somewhat surprised at how many were unable to do this, in any way, a few years ago, but perhaps you believe that is fine, and that is a lifestyle option if one is not trying to sign up for an online poker room with the expectation of doing a withdrawal at some point.

I say all of that with the awareness that nearly everyone in this forum has nothing to do with the online poker industry currently, but the ID comment did bring back some fond memories of poker players wondering if a utility bill in their ex-girlfriends name would work. After that, many of those without any ID decided it was too much effort to get one, so they chose to stay on Lock Poker where they were happier.

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Old 02-21-2019, 12:46 PM   #4154
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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More than 5%
This is Murrica, bro. We don't leave the Motherland.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:51 PM   #4155
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Nor drive in it with a license apparently.
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Old 02-21-2019, 02:58 PM   #4156
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Old 02-21-2019, 03:13 PM   #4157
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

I don't know if this has been discussed or not in this thread, but I'd really be surprised if the Democratic ticket didn't include two of the current (or soon-to-be announced) candidates. Maybe like a moderate/progressive combo. Anyway, I think the last time that an opponent turned into a running mate was back in 1980 when George Bush was picked by Reagan. Seems like a no-brainer for this to happen in 2020, but I dunno, it has been 40 years.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:23 PM   #4158
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Anyway, I think the last time that an opponent turned into a running mate was back in 1980 when George Bush was picked by Reagan.
Edwards was an opponent of Kerry in 2004, and Biden an opponent of Obama in 2008.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:30 PM   #4159
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Edwards was an opponent of Kerry in 2004, and Biden an opponent of Obama in 2008.
Yikes. My memory must be going. Thanks for the correction.
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Old 02-21-2019, 03:51 PM   #4160
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

How do you do reparations for blacks? We need massive changes in public policy towards poor people but are they going to spin that as reparations?
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:10 PM   #4161
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Am I right in expecting the Democratic ticket (president/VP) will be very likely male+female and white+non-white in some combination? I hope/don't think they will make the same mistake again and go "well, Tim Kaine speaks Spanish. That should be enough to turn out the Hispanic vote".
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:51 PM   #4162
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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How do you do reparations for blacks? We need massive changes in public policy towards poor people but are they going to spin that as reparations?
An easy first step (and it is only a first step) is to make all public colleges and universities free for all blacks. Many of them were built by slave labor and it's a very minor reparation to allow them to attend those schools for free that their ancestors built.

Would love to make private colleges/universities built by slave labor free as well, but I don't think that the government can mandate that.

Side note: it should go without saying that those schools should be free for everyone.
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Old 02-21-2019, 05:06 PM   #4163
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre View Post
Am I right in expecting the Democratic ticket (president/VP) will be very likely male+female and white+non-white in some combination? I hope/don't think they will make the same mistake again and go "well, Tim Kaine speaks Spanish. That should be enough to turn out the Hispanic vote".
I don't know about exactly that combination, but it's 99+% sure to not be two straight white guys.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:11 PM   #4164
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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We need massive changes in public policy towards poor people but are they going to spin that as reparations?
This sounds stupid but I wonder what would happen if all blue chip/5* black high school athletes in southern states went to college out of state as a protest.

Can you imagine no top black recruits going to Alabama to play football?

"No, sorry sir, I'm not interested in UGA until the state fixes its systematic racism when it comes to voter suppression."

"Sorry, Duke and UNC, the gerrymandering in your state causes me enough concern I'm taking my talents to the University of Delaware"
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:26 PM   #4165
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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This sounds stupid but I wonder what would happen if all blue chip/5* black high school athletes in southern states went to college out of state as a protest.

Can you imagine no top black recruits going to Alabama to play football?

"No, sorry sir, I'm not interested in UGA until the state fixes its systematic racism when it comes to voter suppression."

"Sorry, Duke and UNC, the gerrymandering in your state causes me enough concern I'm taking my talents to the University of Delaware"
Doesn't sound stupid at all.

Remember those protests at the University of Missouri a few years ago? There was a guy doing a hunger strike until the president resigned and nothing happened.

A few days later, the football team said that they weren't playing the bowl game or even practicing until the president stepped down. He was out in less than 24 hours.

High level college sports is an enormous deal.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:38 PM   #4166
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Economist Robert Browne wrote the ultimate goal from reparations should be to "restore the black community to the economic position it would have if it had not been subjected to slavery and discrimination".[8] He estimates a fair reparation value anywhere between $1.4 – $4.7 Trillion, or roughly $142,000 for every black American living today.[8]
Wealth distribution in America doesn't work that way. You'd have to give like half of this money to Oprah.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:51 PM   #4167
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Bernie Sanders “not crazy about eliminating the fillibuster” guess he’s canceled
That's the perfect position to have though. Now he can avoid being asked about it 10,000 more times and continue to stay on message and be the most popular politician in the country. He's the only candidate that won't take the bait which is why he would be the best choice to stop Trump.
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:50 PM   #4168
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre View Post
Am I right in expecting the Democratic ticket (president/VP) will be very likely male+female and white+non-white in some combination? I hope/don't think they will make the same mistake again and go "well, Tim Kaine speaks Spanish. That should be enough to turn out the Hispanic vote".
The Kaine choice for VP might have been one of the all-time bad choices in the history of politics. Hillary might be president right now if she picked Booker as VP.
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:45 AM   #4169
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Being pro reparations seems like a hugely toxic stance for the general election. Could the Dems possibly do anything more than that to motivate Trump voters to turn out?
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Old 02-22-2019, 01:15 AM   #4170
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Old 02-22-2019, 01:32 AM   #4171
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

There are reports that Harris is supporting reparations too, but I'm skeptical based on the reporting:

Quote:
Last week, on the popular radio show “The Breakfast Club,” Senator Kamala Harris of California agreed with a host’s suggestion that government reparations for black Americans were necessary to address the legacies of slavery and discrimination. Ms. Harris later affirmed that support in a statement to The New York Times.

“We have to be honest that people in this country do not start from the same place or have access to the same opportunities,” she said. “I’m serious about taking an approach that would change policies and structures and make real investments in black communities.”
OK, but that just sounds like standard issue meaningless boilerplate. "Change policies and structures to empower communities to provide opportunities to lift themselves out of poverty", that kind of thing.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:54 AM   #4172
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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The Kaine choice for VP might have been one of the all-time bad choices in the history of politics. Hillary might be president right now if she picked Booker as VP.
I think this is a tough claim to make. I mean, I'm not saying Kaine was a great VP choice... But is your thought that Booker gives her a boost among African-Americans? She already won the black vote by 80 points, which is pretty standard for Dems - not quite Obama levels. Going back over her short list, if I could pick anyone from the short list, my rankings would be:

1. Sherrod Brown
2. Tim Ryan
3. Cory Booker
4. Tim Kaine

Like, I think if you ran a sim out with Kaine versus any of the others on the short list, you have a better chance of winning with him than say Warren, Castro, Perez, Garcetti, Becerra, Vilsack, etc.

But given the razor-thin margins throughout the rust belt, I think going with a prominent rust belt Dem would be the strategy in hindsight. Out of people that were speculated about but never considered, Bernie, Klobuchar and Franken might all get her the win. Of course, this is Al Franken pre MeToo allegations, I'm basing this on who these people were in 2016. Obviously I wouldn't advocate for him as a VP pick now with what we know.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:12 AM   #4173
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Kaine was chosen mostly to shore up the swing state of Virginia, and Clinton did win that state by 5 points while losing virtually every other swing state in the eastern half of the country, so you could argue it achieved what it set out to do. It speaks to the incompetence of the Clinton campaign that they thought that an affluent state like Virginia was the best place to give themselves this helping hand, like they clearly had no idea what the profile of voters they were in danger of losing looked like.

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She already won the black vote by 80 points
Not really the point, the aim is to help turnout. You can use the running mate in communities where they are well known and liked as the figurehead of the GOTV effort.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:27 AM   #4174
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

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Kaine was chosen mostly to shore up the swing state of Virginia, and Clinton did win that state by 5 points while losing virtually every other swing state in the eastern half of the country, so you could argue it achieved what it set out to do. It speaks to the incompetence of the Clinton campaign that they thought that an affluent state like Virginia was the best place to give themselves this helping hand, like they clearly had no idea what the profile of voters they were in danger of losing looked like.
The bolded is the key, and it all comes back to what we discuss whenever we re-re-re-re-re-litigate 2016. HRC's campaign ignored states they needed to be in, and they failed to understand how Trump and his different base was challenging them in areas they weren't expecting.

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Not really the point, the aim is to help turnout. You can use the running mate in communities where they are well known and liked as the figurehead of the GOTV effort.
Yeah, I get that and I agree, but black turnout overall was only down 4.7% from 2012, and some of that was probably due to voter suppression... So I guess my questions (and I don't know that these answers are readily available) would be how much was it down in states that voters weren't suppressed that were in play, and how much does Booker as VP change that?

Of course, this also all relies on Clinton's team sending him to Milwaukee, Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Detroit instead of Atlanta, Charlotte, Tallahassee and Richmond. I suspect they would have used him poorly in terms of the electoral map.
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Old 02-22-2019, 04:28 AM   #4175
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Re: Who will run against Trump in 2020?

Just gonna drop this here because it blows my mind every time I think about it:

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At least publicly, Schumer has no worries about his party’s dwindling fortunes among working-class white voters. “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”
I mean, I can't even come up with a worse prediction of the 2016 election than that after I already know what happened. It belongs in the annals of quotes like "Stocks have reached a new and permanently high plateau".
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