Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
Maybe we'll see. I feel like you don't have any data backing you up here and you're just extrapolating from people you know and what you read on the internets. As another way of looking at it, Bernie had 240,000 donors in 2016 and people were waxing lyrical about how grassroots his campaign was, but 240,000 people who mostly live in coastal Democratic strongholds are a total irrelevancy electorally. There are more Bernie diehards than that of course but many of them would vote Dem anyway. I agree Bernie running would be a huge problem for the Dems but I don't think he'll do that.
The argument in the 40/30/30 case would simply be that 1) in the election of Bernie vs Establishment, most people voted establishment and 2) Harris is the compromise candidate in an election where nobody won a majority. I don't even think that is an argument without merit. Possibly I'm colored here by the fact that I live in a country with what you guys call instant runoff voting. That someone can get a plurality of the first-preference votes and not win is completely normal. FPTP elections are idiotic imo, but I'm aware that Americans are used to them.
I totally understand the 40/30/30 argument and agree that it has merit, especially if we actually had some form of ranked choice (we do in SF, which came excruciatingly close to defeating the corporate Dem mayor last year). You would have to then argue that > 65% of Biden's votes "would have" gone to Harris (or the other way around) which doesn't ring correct to me, but it's a moot point for now.
The point is how it would be perceived and that most people would not understand or care about the logical argument. You could see it in SF when the mayor was close to losing, morons raging on Twitter that the person with most 1st place votes might not win (yes, that's an "internets" thing).
Bottom line though is:
1) A Green or like candidate is probably going to run (especially if a centrist is nominated).
2) Given tight margins in swing states, Democrats are highly vulnerable to third party left candidates in general elections, and indisputably lost 2000 by many times less votes than the Green took. (They actually won in 2000 according to most FL recounts, but oh well!)
3) SOME reasonably significant percentage of people would feel disenfranchised and be furious, irrationally or not.
4) This would be enough people to be of very, very serious concern for Democrats.
If you tell me right now that it'll be 40/30/30 and the DNC hands it to Harris/Biden, I think I'd bet on Trump.