Couple questions:

1) Who do you want to win the democratic primary?
2) Who do you think will actually win the democratic primary?
3) Who will win the 2020 election.. Trump? Some other republican (Assuming Trump doesnt make it 4 years)? or a democrat?

As of today the betting site Paddy Power has the following democratic candidates with the best odds to win the presidency:

Elizabeth Warren 15/2
Michelle Obama 14/1
The Rock 16/1
Mark Zuckerberg 16/1
Joe Biden 18/1
Cory Booker 18/1
Kamala Harris 18/1
Bernie Sanders 20/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/other-...rp_ids=2711243

lol @ The Rock and The Zuck both having the same odds.

Sort of amazed Hillary isn't on there as a 20:1 shot, tbh.

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So I'll start by saying I donated to Bernie Sanders campaign and ended up vomiting as I voted for Hillary in Michigan purely to stop Trump.

1. My #1 pick if I could personally elect the president, it'd be Nina Turner. Bernie I think might be too old by then even though I do think he's in above average shape. Things can just go down hill fast at that age.

2. Most likely, in order IMO: Warren, Harris, Booker.

3. Assuming it's Trump, I don't think Booker or Harris could defeat him. The left hate them. Some of us voted for Hillary, less would vote for another establishment politician. (I would vote green in a Harris or Booker vs Trump).
Elizabeth Warren would demolish Donald Trump.

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If I had to bet I think I would go towards the democratic nominees that aren't Warren. I can't think of anything more suicidal than nominating a 70 year white woman that has already been in the GOPs crosshairs (famous last words). I have a hard time seeing the GOP winning the presidency if it isn't Trump for whatever reason.

I would put a bet on each of

Cory Booker 18/1
Kamala Harris 18/1
Joe Biden 18/1
Kirsten Gillibrand 33/1
Andrew Cuomo 33/1
Al Franken 33/1
Amy Klobuchar 40/1
Tammy Duckworth 50/1

But I am bad at betting so don't listen to me

Hilldawg is a 50/1 shot

Chelsea is a 150/1 shot

Surprised Caroline Kennedy made the list but not Joe Kennedy III.

Why is Michelle Obama 14/1 ? I can't imagine she would want to run.

If Michelle runs I'm quitting my job, moving to a swing state, and volunteering 24/7.

Dems are dedicated to electing a woman, so Warren or Harris. I didn't realize how old Warren is.


Have the Dems no one from the Midwest?

I think Mueller might run for the republicans, should have good chances after putting some shade on Trump through his investigation.

I'm voting for microbet as a write in.

If he wins reelection in 2018 I'm hitching onto the Sherrod Brown bandwagon. An Ohio Senator who'll be important in carrying a swing state. White guy. Democrats will need to run a white guy to beat Trump. I like Hickenlooper and Jerry Brown as backups.

Does The Country Really Want To Go Through That?

The New York Times had an interesting article (yesterday) noting how Vice President Mike Pence seems to be positioning himself for a 2020 run for the Presidency. (Pence has formed his own PAC and has been holding private meetings with major GOP donors.)

The implied (but not explicitly stated) belief within the GOP - by ambitious GOP pols like Pence, Ohio Governor John Kasich and Nebraska senator Ben Sasse - is that Trump is a dead man walking. Politically, Trump's presidency is in the process of crashing and burning thanks to the Russia mess and declining poll numbers. It could be that these pols, being Washington insiders, are better clued-in about the Mueller investigation and have come to the conclusion that Trump is going down. (The Times story noted the obvious - that a calamity at the polls for the GOP in the 2018 mid-term elections would be blamed on Trump, accelerating a spate of challengers if he's still in office by the time 2019-2020 rolls around.)

A Trump spokesperson was quick to dismiss all this talk as "baseless" and so forth ... A spokesman for VP Pence declared that the Vice President remains a steadfast and loyal supporter of President Trump and all this speculation about Mr. Pence planning to run [against his boss] in 2020 is scurrilous [false] innuendo unworthy of comment. (But, this spokesperson didn't flat out deny or emphatically assert that his boss is not planning to run for President in 2020. He played it coy ...) This is the classic textbook definition of a non-denial denial.

The tea leaves are suggesting that Trump will be a one-term President, but who really knows? Trump seems like the cat with nine lives. So far, he has managed to confound every political prediction (including my own) that there was no way he would:
(1.) Even consider running for President, (2.) Win the Republican nomination, and (3.) Beat Hillary and actually get elected! Trump seems like that monster (Methusela?) that every time you chop off its head, another one grows back in its place.

Right-wing blowhards like Michael Savage are predicting a "civil war" if Trump is removed from office while certain GOP politicians - like Pence, Kasich, and Jeff Flake - are acting as if Trump's demise is a foregone conclusion. (Senator Flake has even written a book decrying the rise of Trump and the [concurrent] demise of the GOP.)

As a self-confessed "librul" one might think I would be overjoyed with the spectacle of Trump going down. Not really. I lived through the spectacle of Watergate. This kind of turmoil is not good for the country - or the world. When you have this kind of instability at the very top of the U.S. Government, it encourages "bad actors" in other parts of the world to do (or attempt to do) things that they shouldn't. If Trump is suddenly distracted by an impeachment proceeding and there is a foreign crisis, nobody can predict how that would turn out. These are the ingredients that produce really bad outcomes.

Trump's real worry is not so much impeachment - which he probably thinks he can survive - but the possibility of being tried (and convicted) for various criminal offenses once he leaves office. Obstruction of justice and various financial crimes, (i.e. money laundering, tax evasion, bribery of foreign officials, violation of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act), appear to be the top candidates of Mueller's probe. In short, Trump may be in plenty of [legal] trouble.

To avoid putting the country through the hell of another Watergate-style period of chaos, it might be better to work out a "deal" with Trump. It would be a replay of the Nixon scenario. The deal would be that in exchange for Trump agreeing to voluntarily resign the Presidency, (the sooner the better), ceding his office to Vice President Pence; all charges and/or potential charges [against Trump] would be dropped. Like Nixon, Trump has lost his reputation (as it was) from all this - he's becoming an object of ridicule and derision - so what good would it really do to prosecute him and try sending him off to prison? It might make Bill and Hillary - and some super liberals - gloat and feel happy, but does the country really want to go through that? If Republicans lose at the polls in 2018, that will be punishment enough for Donald J. Trump.

I would love for him to go to jail. He is a great example of the criminal rich who should be in jail and would already have been there if not for wealth and influence (see e.g. bribe paid to Pam Bondi). I put him in a similar category as Martin Shkreli, who will be facing jail time.

The MAGAs will do **** all if Trump goes to jail. The teenage to 25 year old choads will send more death and rape threats to reporters and Democrats, but that's the only movement that will arise. Outside of that, you may get a handful of militia groups going Y'all Qaeda, but only a handful. The vast majority will go about their business riding rascals in Walmart and peaking through the curtains to see what the black neighbors are up to.

As for the questions,

(1) Bernie or Liz Warren.

(2) Bernie or Booker.

(3) Really hard to say. Trump has already won one election while being 20 points underwater in approval. Incumbent advantage is significant as well. Both Bush II and Obama had zero net approval as they decisively won second terms. Given structural advantages for Republicans, I can see him winning again even as disliked as he is now. I can very easily see a repeat of 2016 where he wins the EC but loses the popular vote. It may come to be accepted as the natural way Republicans win Presidential elections, because it's so unfair that rural areas... (insert the usual talking points). If I had to call it right now, I'd say there is at least a 40% chance Trump is President in Feb 2021.

Steve Bullock is someone who could appeal to the middle of the country. He'd also have the quality of coming on late as a name no one had mentioned, like Obama. Or Trump.

I don't think Elizabeth Warren will excite people.

I love Kamala Harris. I shudder to think of how the remaining MAGA people would react in the streets if a woman of color took their man out of office.

I would like to see Kirsten Gillibrand in the mix. She tends to do very well in areas that are normally deep red in upstate NY, which are not dissimilar from the rest of the country. She would have appeal in places like OH and MI.

I think that, based on the maps in 2018 and 2020, it's entirely possible that a Democrat winning in 2020 would still face a 51-49 or 52-48 R-controlled Senate and thus get very little done initially.

Not textbook for a guy like Pence. It falls a level short.

Pence's denials are usually flat out lies. He's not bothered by saying "Nooo" or "Of course not" when he straight up means yes. His response here is a message (to donors?) IMO.

you guys are all gonna get on the kaine traine eventually

.

https://law.stanford.edu/directory/david-alan-sklansky/

If there's one thing this last election taught us, it's that charisma is a must have. If you don't have that, you've got nothing.

I think Cory Booker has to be considered the favorite, but he's got baggage - it's kind of an open secret that he's gay, and that might not play well in the battleground states. However, he's got the charisma, presence, and intellect to get the job done.

One of my dark horses is Martin Heinrich. I think he's very unlikely, but I want to keep an eye on him - I think there's a good chance he'll end up as the VP pick of whoever the eventual nominee is.

The other dark horse I don't want to name since I'd like to bet on him (it's a he), but I think he has an excellent chance and will be very mispriced by the market when betting on 2020 begins.

I think the Rock could actually win (unlikely but possible) - if there's one thing this last election proved, it's that we are an intellectually shallow and reality TV oriented culture. He's got a massively positive Q score.

Kamala Harris is DOA. People like to talk her up because it's a good way to virtue signal, but putting aside the potential merits of her candidacy (I personally don't like her, but to each his own), she would have basically zero chance in a general election and I can't see her winning the nomination either.

Wasn't Booker the one dating a female instagram poet like half his age?

Jerry Brown is too old - he's 79, and the election is 3 years away. Would be a good candidate if he was 10 years younger.

Not sure, I just know that he's unmarried (which is weird if you're a politician, since marriage helps you get ahead), there are rumors that he's gay, and he's refused to publicly address them. That's usually an excellent indicator that someone is in fact gay.