I would say the bigger issue is people critical of the dem establishment don’t really have a unified message to begin wit other than dems suck. During a banking fueled recession it’s all about financial regulation. Now that unemployment is at 3% nobody cares about that everybody has moved on to how bad the dem establishment is on immigration, which nobody cared about in 2016. All far right grievances of their own party fit under the umbrella of white Christian persecution which allows an election to election carryover and compounding effect.

Unfortunately if Bernie gets the nom I think it becomes way more likely some dumbass like Bloomberg says they have no choice but to run as an independent

More unfortunately, there is no way Bernie will win even if there is no independent candidate running.

I don't know enough to handicap the practical disadvantages for Bloomberg of running as an independent vs. entering the Democratic primary.

But you are certainly correct that he is more likely to enter the race in one way or another if he concludes that Bernie is otherwise the runaway favorite on the Democratic side.

Why would Bloomberg enter as a Dem if he thinks Bernie is a runaway favorite to win the nom? Do you think he's that stupid? Why he'd run as an independent is obvious and it wouldn't be to become POTUS.

I wasn't clear. By runaway favorite, I meant "runaway favorite over competitors other than Bloomberg." In other words, for Bloomberg to enter, he has to think that he is presenting a third alternative between Trump and a far left candidate (by US standards, not world standards).

I don't think Bloomberg will run for president as a vanity project or to achieve some business objective. He's different from Trump in that respect. (I'm sure there is a vanity element to flirting with running, but that's different than actually running.) He has to believe he can win. That's why he didn't run in 2012 or 2016, and that's why, at the end of the day, I don't think he'll run in 2020.

If he runs as an independent it will because he prefers Trump to Bernie or Warren or someone like that.

I meant to imply that he'd be stupid to think he could beat Bernie in the nomination if it looks clearly like he's the front runner. I guess if no one else at all were to run against Bernie or if someone like Warren was splitting the progressive vote he might reasonably think he had a shot.

What makes you think Bloomberg doesn't have the same basic human vanities and greed that everyone else has?

bloomberg will crush bernie in the dem primary. someone post that tweet about how dem establisment loves to show they can implement "republican*" policy more effectively and more efficiently and just better than repubs.

* meaning the supposed traditional repub policy like fiscal conservativity, lool market based solutions, tough on crime bills and reduction of welfare.

Why on Earth would the dem primary be Bloomberg vs Sanders? Everybody else decides they just don’t want the job?

Are we talking about the same Michael Bloomberg who just hosted a fundraiser for Pete ****ing King

He does. He just doesn't have them to the degree that Trump does, and he doesn't have them in sufficient degree to run if he is virtually certain he can't win.

If he wanted to run as a vanity project with no prospect of winning a la Ross Perot, he would have done so in 2012 or 2016.

According to Wikipedia:

"King was ranked as the most bipartisan member of the U.S. House of Representatives during the 114th United States Congress in the Bipartisan Index created by The Lugar Center and the McCourt School of Public Policy that ranks members of the United States Congress by their degree of bipartisanship (by measuring the frequency each member's bills attract co-sponsors from the opposite party and each member's co-sponsorship of bills by members of the opposite party)."

That's pretty much how Bloomberg thinks of himself. That's why he has mostly been perceived as a threat to run as an independent. Running in the Democratic primary is an option for Bloomberg only because (i) he thinks it is easier to sell moderate Republican economic policies to Democrats than it is to sell moderate Democratic social policies to Republicans; and (ii) it is impractical to run in the Republican primary against an incumbent Republican president.

Seems like the exact type thing of candidate the DNC would love to get behind.

Based on the Dems strategy, Bloomberg is the perfect candidate. A Republican who can pass himself off as a Democrat because he was once mayor of ultra-liberal New York City.

Bloomberg? Nada chance. Way too much baggage. Too old. Same with Bernie and Warren.


The elder leaders of the Dem party need to step aside and let younger candidates take on the leadership of the party in the Trump era. They have presided over the loss of every branch of government. How could someone new perform worse?

BETO says it's time for impeachment

Would love seeing Beto run. If AOC was old enough, I'd be curious to see her make a run as well.

It's a Hail Mary play, but I like it.

Over the past month it appears as if Elizabeth Warren has been gearing up for a Presidential run. What are the policy or electability concerns that have everyone swooning over Beto and AOC but not talking seriously about her yet? (Hint: that's a rhetorical question. She's a more experienced, serious and capable version of both. Her most difficult path will be to the Democratic nomination because the establishment doesn't want her pissing off the banking executives that fund the party. If there's a downturn in the economy that casts big banks as the villains again it won't matter. Anyone who believes she doesn't crush Trump in 2020 is buying into lies being spread to stifle a progressive shift in the party.)

AOC is 28. POTUS candidate have to be at least 35 to run.

Only problem is that Warren is as beholden to corporate interests as Hillary was. That'll basically be the attack on her from day 1. Look the Democrats are trying to shove another Hillary down our throats. Vote Trump because Warren is like Hillary. The only thing stronger than love for Trump among deplorables is hate for Hillary.

I'd feel most comfortable voting for candidate who are Justice Democrats like AOC (when she's of age that is).

AOC is a future pipedream. If Beto can beat Cruz, then the assumption is Beto wins Texas in a general presidential election, and if Texas goes Blue in a presidential election...gg. But first Beto has to beat Cruz which isn't going to be easy.

I mean obviously Beto shouldn't be a serious contender if he loses to Cruz. Jason Kander is now running for major of Kansas City. Beto will have to take a step back if he loses to Cruz. But if he wins...

I think Warren is in a good position from a brand standpoint right now. Democrats are ready for a fight.

My guess is this feeling will only intensify by 2020. Mueller's report will likely be out by then, and Trump will likely still be in office. People won't be looking for a pragmatist, or a statesman, or a compromiser, or even an inspirational figure. They will be looking for a brawler. And nobody plays that role better than Warren.

Who is AOC?