Actually, that's funnier when you think of her as the VP of the J. Peterman catalog lol.

What's the Over/Under on the 2020 candidate being someone we have not mentioned so far ITT ??

I hear people butcher the use of "over/under" at least once a week. I thought 2+2 would be one of the few places immune from this. Oh well

Over/Under on my agreement with you?

Over and/or under on him using it wrong on purpose?

There are some candidates that I think could win the Democratic primary that I don't believe have been mentioned ITT yet, unless it was way upthread.

That's not how o/u works, though.

Care to elaborate? Genuinely curious.

There was an article about this the other day. Apparently trump is obsessed by this question. He’s terrified of Biden running. He thinks Warren/Gilibrand/Sanders would be a cakewalk.

Biden almost certainly regrets not running in 2016. Wouldn't be surprised if despite his advanced age he tries to run in 2020.

joe “kids these days have it too easy” biden

joe “young people should stop complaining because back in my day...” biden

Found it. http://theweek.com/speedreads/748927...3-think-failed

By far the most interesting development there is that Trump seems focused on running in 2020. I was thinking him saying "we made America great again! Mike Pence will make an excellent president!" and retiring to the golf course was much more likely.

Well, I think an upstart candidate could win... Joe Kennedy is the main name that comes to mind. His last name helps the fact that he's a general unknown nationally, he's good at connecting the issues to the average person and making people care, he could use a lot more polish though, and I'm not sure he wants to be POTUS. But if he does, and runs, he has a shot.

FWIW I think he's a better candidate than POTUS at this point - would like to see him add some polish and experience.

Had to google to make sure you aren't talking about the anti-vaxxer Kennedy. That's Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Democrats Score Special Election Upset In Wisconsin GOP Stronghold

Schachtner, the chief medical examiner for St. Croix County, won by 9 percentage points.

Republican Sheila Harsdorf had held the seat since 2001, but she left in November to become Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s agriculture secretary. In 2016, Harsdorf won re-election by 26 percentage points, and Trump beat Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by 17 points. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney won the district in 2012.

...

The conservative Americans for Prosperity spent at least $50,000 on ads, and the Wisconsin Alliance for Reform and Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce threw in another $80,000.

On the Democratic side, Greater Wisconsin spent $30,000, and the National Democratic Redistricting Committee spent $10,000.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...m-presidential

According to the latest data from Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, provided exclusively to The Hill, Biden has 27 percent among Democrats.

The next closest candidate is Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), at 16 percent, followed by 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and media mogul Oprah Winfrey, each at 13 percent.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is the only other candidate to pull double-digit support, at 10 percent. Rounding out the field are Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), with 4 percent support each. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) gets 2 percent support and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) is at 1 percent.

I have a borderline irrational hatred of Biden that goes beyond him being a neoliberal dinosaur. I find him personally repellent. I of course would pull the lever for a yellow dog against Donald Trump, but if Biden wins the primary, it will be painful for me.

Do polls 2 years prior to the first primary have literally any predictive value?

God help us if it does. Top five spots are four people born in the 1940s and a ****ing talk show host.

It just seems like a list of "who have people heard of". Really hope this is true.

If Oprah Winfrey runs in a large Democratic field, why would it be any different than what went on with Trump? The first poll would have her way, way, ahead and she would gradually build on it as the candidates drop out.

the first poll has joe biden way ahead

Probably similar. A few progressives running would split the progressive vote. A few establishment Dems running would split the centrist vote. No one splits the Oprah vote.

Nah they're mostly name recognition. It's only predictive comparing the 100% recognition people. That number is awful for Bernie though since his name recognition should be close to peak.

Yes and this is in contrast to early 2016 GOP polls which had Trump way ahead ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ls/republican/ ). The reason Trump was a surprise nominee was that people expected other candidates' support to consolidate, but they never did.

It's even tougher for me to imagine support consolidating in favor of Oprah. If she continues to run 10 points behind Biden, she's probably screwed.

RCP average graph at the start of 2014 has Christie>Jeb!>>>Rand=Cruz=Rubio as the only guys in double digits

I see a poll from a few days ago that has Biden 5 points ahead of Bernie (26 to 21), but a poll in December (22nd I think) that had Bernie #1 and Biden #2.

Trump, while an obviously celebrity clown, did fill a very obvious and clear political void in the GOP electorate -- blood and soil nativist racism -- that the rest of the GOP essentially wasn't meeting the demand for. It's tempting to chalk up Trump's win to his apolitical reality TV show persona but it's critical not to ignore he developed a very specific brand of right-wing racist populism that is hugely popular among the GOP electorate and no other candidate was really delivering on.

Put simply, all those beta cucks in the GOP field besides Trump ran away from say Birther nonsense whereas Trump doubled down, much to the delight of the right-wing base. The other mealy mouthed GOP presidential aspirants might have said they wanted strict immigration controls but the DACA kids can stay or whatever. Trump said we'd build a 40 ft wall and Muslims should stay out. That's what they really wanted.

As it's not clear Oprah really fills that role at all on the left and I would not make her the favorite in a large field without more information.