Quote:
Originally Posted by mmbt0ne
Cruz's NY comments hurt him the most because of what it does for Trump's delegate count in high-delegate states.
NY is proportional, but triggers to winner-take-all on the district and state levels when a candidate gets >50% of the vote in a district or statewide.
NJ is winner take all
CA is winner take all
All of those states are likely to associate positively with the dog-whistle concept of NY values.
That's 318 delegates, or just over 25% of what someone needs to win the nomination.
At the end of the day, Iowa's proportional so the only real thing you're chasing is momentum. No one's going to build a significant delegate lead there. If Cruz wins he's gotta hope for a big bounce coming out or else Trump is gonna waffle crush him across NH (proportional, Trump's up 30:11), SC (WTA, Trump up 11) and NV (pro, Trump up 33:20) leading in to Super Tuesday.
Cruz is actually winning California right now but NY is lost to both him and Trump, its almost certainly going Rubio win with votes spread across the field. NJ looks all but locked up for Trump.
Cruz can kick NY as much as he likes and it probably doesn't affect him there. I also suspect kicking NY does nothing to harm his California support either California Republicans are way closer to Iowans than New Yorkers when you break them down, just linking the two because of their progressive liberal movements misses the fine details.
He is playing a long game delegate gathering strategy building a big machine for the entire race and not just concentrating on a single early state like Christie is for eg, however he needs Iowa and giving up delegates in NY to get an Iowa win for that early momentum and more importantly breaking the trump momentum is huge.
Trump winning all four then going into March as the presumptive unbeatable winner is a disaster for Cruz. Impressions matter.