Explanation: TRUMP

Senatorial record: only a problem if you ever vote for anything

one thing about the next in line GOP pattern is that the next in line has also been the most organized, perceived to be the most electable, and generally cleared the heavy tier opposition out of the way. this year, that person will not exist in 2020, but Cruz comes by far the closest based solely on his Obama 2008-esque organizational skills, and anyone matching up against him in four years is going to have to match/beat Trump at neutering him. that is not an easy task.

This also undermines your thesis. If this is true, why would losing to Hillary all of a sudden necessitate a radical overhaul?

The GOP needs to drastically retool (pun intended) if they want to consistently win the Presidency.


But they can stay the course if they just want to hang onto what they've got while mostly being the party of obstruction. They have big organizational, structural, and financial advantages at the Congressional and state levels.

I love how republicans are circle jerking each other about how the democrats will go through the exact same thing in ten years.

As if you start with a succession of very qualified and or universally popular candidates then somehow you end up with the left equiv of trump out of nowhere.

The evidence I guess is a guy who has been a congressman forever and has fought for civil rights for five decades is going to come second and will get more votes in the process than anyone the republicans could put up against Hillary. Which somehow leads to Oprah 2028 I guess.

They are already convinced Hillary will fail is a certainty, dismissing the fact the only person in American politics today more qualified to be president in terms of achievements is currently in his second term so couldn't run.

who's been saying that?

The West Virginia primary awards 34 delegates and works like IL - voters vote for the delegates, who have the candidates they're pledged to next to their name (or none if they're uncommitted).

Small problem: it's a statewide election, and with 17 original candidates, there are 220 at-large delegates on the ballot. Voters have to pick 22 of them from the list that starts some way down this page, in addition to picking three of the twenty or thirty delegates that are only on the ballot in their own district. This might will cost Trump a couple of delegates, no doubt the ones with funny names, and more importantly it's also really funny so I'm glad this is happening:

https://apps.sos.wv.gov/elections/candidate-search/

Also, because he's not really running for anything in particular, Kasich has 10 pledged delegates for the 22 at-large slots, 2 each in districts 1 and 2 and none in district 3.

I don't see how Cruz can be perceived as most electable if he gets crushed in 2016. If he loses a close race then yeah he could probably take it again in 2020. But the conservative mentality with their ideology is that the ideology can't fail but individuals can fail the ideology. You saw this clearly in 2012 when they rallied around Romney as a solid conservative only to go back to hating him and branding him a RINO as soon as he lost to Obama. If Cruz loses, they wont blame the ideology but could easily turn on Cruz, that he didn't look presidential, that he sounds fake and looks like a gay vampire, or whatever.

Monmouth Poll of New York Donald Trump 52% John Kasich 25% Ted Cruz 17%

Some good news for #NeverIkes

You guys are crazy if you think gop is going to take this away from trump. I know everyone here loves discussing doomsday and apocalypse scenarios. If trump has significantly more delegates he is going to be the nominee. They will suck it up and take the loss in the general, then rig the rules so something like this doesn't happen again. If they hijack this from trump they risk losing a huge portion of their base that will never vote Republican again. The establishment will be thinking long term job security for themselves and their children to continue the oligarchy. I mean you guys really seem to be out of touch with the people of the Republican party at this point. Most of these people already have crazy conspiracies about Obama ect, imagine an actual conspiracy that steals the nomination from the one they love so much.

PredictIt debuted a new market today: will TRUMP (well, they said "will any candidate", but lol) get over 50% of the vote in NY?

Not saying that the establishment will steal the nomination from Trump, but you are the crazy one if you think Republicans are incapable of doing the stupid, counter-productive thing.

If the NYValues vs. 9/11 clip mattered outside of New York Cruz would have dropped out the next day. As it is he's only going to finish second if Kasich concedes two days early again, meaning the anti-Trumps have no one to rally around. Trump breaking 50% isn't a lock but even a worst case for him is like a 48/26/26 finish.

Trump spoiled it, go harder right next time

ez game

Hearing Kasich to drop out rumors here in Ohio talk radio world. Meeting today with donors and Portman. They are speculating he's done. I think it more likely he's hitting up GOPe donors if they want him to play spoiler through the northeast, which I have to imagine they do. Cruz has no appeal in northeast or rust belt

I think Trump is very likely to fall a little short of 50% in NY. It seems like the establishments negative Trump barrage of ads and endorsements and such that they launch into full force the week leading up to each states primary makes it so Trump under performs his polling by a few points as he loses late deciders.

"over 50%" doubles as a Kasich dropout market pretty well if it comes to that

My son told me a joke his teacher told the class today(he's 12)

Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Hillary Clinton get in a plane crash who lives?

TRUMP did a little better among late deciders in WI. He mostly underperforms polling because his supporters are unreliable voters.

If the wrong kid tells his parents that joke, that teacher going to have a fun conference on their hands.

If you haven't watched the video of Rick Scott getting lambasted in a Starbucks, I recommend it. Good lol from me. She says a bad word at the beginning FYI (*******).

Ted Cruz is extremely competitive in NYC

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/717777958467932161

I enjoyed the cameraman's "sweet" at the end there.

I mean, isn't this basically their problem? The establishment has been trying to pivot to win elections and a solid part of their base won't have it. That's why I figured the Democrats would see the blood in the water and elect Bernie before the GOP got their **** back together.

The endorsements and ads are going to matter a lot less in NY because there aren't any good NY Republican surrogates like Walker and Ryan and the advertising is a lot more expensive. Cruz and his super PACs might punt on the state anyway.

The anti Trump Superpacs should continue to go hard if they have the money. It worked in WI why stop now?