CNN/ORC International Poll -- December 17 to 21, 2015
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Trump 39%
Cruz 18%
Carson 10%
Rubio 10%
Christie 5%
Paul 4%
Bush 3%
Huckabee 2%
Kasich 2%
Fiorina 1%

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Question 19C
We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.

Base = Registered Republicans
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MOE 4.5%

C. Donald Trump
Favorable 72% [+45]
Unfavorable 27%
Heard of, no opinion 1%

D. Ted Cruz
Favorable 74% [+55]
Unfavorable 19%
Heard of, no opinion 4%
Never heard of 3%

E. Ben Carson
Favorable opinion 66% [+42]
Unfavorable opinion 24%
Heard of, no opinion 4%
Never heard of 6%

F. Marco Rubio
Favorable opinion 73% [+58]
Unfavorable opinion 15%
Heard of, no opinion 8%
Never heard of 4%

well, trump has 100% name recognition. not surprising.

what is a bit surprising is that even 1% don't have an opinion on him. i would expect that number to be zero. but i suppose there are some people out there who "need to hear more from him" to make a decision. not sure who those people are though.

The martyrdom arises naturally from the mythologising about the omnipotent enemy. It's also a form of narcissism, or is fueled by narcissistic tendencies. It's fun, of a sort, to be the last sane voice etc.

I wouldn't call it formally martyrdom. So like, a martyr is persecuted for failing to reject a belief.

But the bitching about "Happy holidays" and school Christmas plays and whatever other things addle the right-wing lizard brain aren't quite that if you listen closely to their complaining.

It's pretty clearly something slightly different: they feel dispossessed. That is, they had at least the imagination that they once possessed something but no longer have it.

Then you can fit it nicely to the whole plen-t-plaint nature of unrelated but deeply related (for them) cultural gripes about political correctness and reverse racism and feminazis bothering them and whatever else.

In the end, various battle tales from the War on Christmas are just more grist for the "American culture, political and otherwise, used to be dominated by nice white Christians, isn't anymore <PriceIsRightLoserHorn.mp3>" feeling that resides deep in the hearts of huge amounts of dumb-white American mainlining FNC and AM radio into their brains. They don't seem to be casting themselves formally as martyrs but as the victims who had their things taken away. Some may see this as not much different than martyrdom but I don't think you can understand the appeal of MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN and YOU DIDN'T BUILD THAT and other JUST COMMON SENSE TRUTH TELLING appeal of right-wing populism without understanding the deep well of dispossession white America feels that they had something taken away from them due to, whatever, lack of vigilance against the great forces of political correctness or whatever the ****.

And then from there, you see more of the end game: martyrs seek relief or is happy to die a hero's death for their commitments. If the collective right-wing of America felt truly martyred like an early Christian, you could easily compromise with them, or you wouldn't see the perpetual revulsion for trivial slights like you do.

In contrast, the dispossessed want their **** back. From there you understand better why the normal, pedestrian art of political bargaining and compromise is lost on the contemporary right-wing movement. They feel like sneaky forces have taken something from them unjustly and want it back. Their unwillingness to compromise or meaningfully engage in the political process beyond being angry and demanding things is characteristic not of a martyr, but of someone who feels like they had something stolen from them. It's frankly a much better frame to view the current political climate in.

It's professional victimhood.

no, only the blacks and the womens can be professional victims

ask wil

Dialogue is easy when the people posting generally hold the same views.

Almost time to change the thread title to "who will be Trump's running mate"?

Have to see how much losing Iowa will hurt the guy who constantly brags about being a winner though.

Ticket will be Cruz/Christie.

IIRC, TRUMP started the race with net negative favorability, even amongst republicans. Now it's +45%.


gameoverman.jpg

When do we change the titke of the other thread to "tragic birth of the American fascist party"?

No doubt a repost, but frankly it rewards multiple viewings.



We'll need to add another floor to the Smithsonian for the Cruz exhibit, because this is some next-level ****, Sam I Am.

Just perfect that an ad for a scummy for-profit "university" ran before that Cruz video.

Look at this page breaking down Trump's favorability among Republicans. All groups of Republicans love the guy:



(Page 34 of the poll)

Even groups that aren't in the "Trump base" love him by huge margins. Here those groups are, with Cruz's and Rubio's numbers in the same categories:

Evangelicals: Trump +48%; Cruz: +58%; Rubio +51%
College graduates: Trump +37%; Cruz: +62%; Rubio +77%
Self described moderates: Trump +27%, Cruz: +41%; Rubio +46%

So in these three groups that I've highlighted, Trump has very good favorability ratings, even though Cruz and Rubio have even better ratings. The fact that Trump's numbers are so good in these groups makes me really question the wisdom of people (like Adanthar) who are super confident that Trump has an impenetrable ceiling and will crumble when the field narrows. Based on these numbers, there's no reason to assume that when a bunch of candidates drop out, Trump won't hoover up a lot of those votes.

Basically, I'm saying that the GOP really has fallen in love with Trump. His favorability in the GOP in this poll is +45% (72% to 27%). In the same poll in July, Trump's favorability in the GOP was only +9% (51% to 42%, page 30 of this poll, which sadly and inexplicably doesn't break down favorability within GOP subsets). +9 to +45 is a gigantic shift, especially for someone who was so well known. I can't think of anyone else who has ever had a positive shift like that, and I just don't see any reason to think that it's magically going to shift back. Maybe it will. I hope it will.


I'm not predicting that Trump will win. I still, despite everything, still have some amount of faith in the Republican party voters, and I know that there's still a lot of time left before Iowa and a lot of volatility still to happen. But... how is it going to happen? I'm really at a loss.

As if to prove the point about the easy appeal of victimhood. Steven here can't even go on the internet without finding people who disagree with him! That's NOT FAIR.

Fair enough. Care to expand a bit on why it's obvious Trump has a hard ceiling? I don't think that's obvious at all.

Maybe the better question is how high his hard ceiling is. He will get most of what remains of carson's support and the assumption that cruz will take support from trump presumably works both ways. If he takes half of carson and half of cruz supporters he has over 50% nationwide and a clear path to victory.

Fwiw I think a good argument is that trump's chance of victory is tied to cruz's chance of implosion.

Is it a commonly held idea that Carson supporters will likely fall to trump? It seems like they have very different appeals

They both appeal to people who are dumb as **** and want non-establishment candidate so I think quite a bit of overlap

The right has been making this idea even more explicit since 2008. "Taking America Back," is a common talk radio topic and, of course, Trump's slogan "Make America Great Again" is basically saying the same thing.

Polls showed Trump second choice of a third of Carson supporters a month ago. Trump has grown in support & favourability since. When the field narrows further third and fourth choices start becoming important too.

Donald J. TrumpVerified account
‏@realDonaldTrump
Hillary, when you complain about "a penchant for sexism," who are you referring to. I have great respect for women. BE CAREFUL!


"BE CAREFUL!"

Mess with the bull, you get the horns.

"Women are great people. I have a lot of respect for women. But Americans never win against women anymore. If I'm president America will be doing a lot of winning."