I think the lower his ratings go the more likely other Republicans are going to look at running.

You are probably right about it not affecting Sarah but I think it somewhat effects whether Christie or Ryan runs.

The reverse happened in '92 when GHWB looked unbeatable so all the top-tier Dems stayed out, then in '96 Clinton looked so beatable that every Rep with the slightest chance ran for the nomination.


Funny how things work out.

I don't doubt that more wannabes would run if they thought Obama was weak. But it's quite late for Christie or Palin to jump in. Besides, I think their major consideration would be whether they could win the nomination, which has little to do with Obama's numbers.

It sounds like there is a lot of money still on the sidelines. Like even though he's the front runner Romney is behind his 2007 fundraising pace...and he wasn't the frontrunner then. Entering late has obvious disadvantages, but equally obvious advantages. Most people don't really start paying attention to the race until October, if a candidate announces in late September or early October they would get a big bump of free media just when it is most useful.

And while certainly the possibility of winning the nomination is important, odds of Obama are important for both Christie and Palin. Palin will not be pretty enough to run again in 8 years, and I doubt Christie wants to wait 8 years to run for president either.

Just no way Palin can win? Agreed unless she is heads up with Paul. Is their no cognitive dissonance with you RP guys when it comes to accessing RP's chances to win? Palin out polls RP now and she hasn't announced.

****, your use of "you guys" followed by "chances to win" is really ****ing with my sense of grammar.

There's no way palin wins.

<-------anything but a fanboi

Man I hope Palin runs. That would be soooooooo awesome.

Sorry, i will try to improve.

LOL. What is this too late crap? Reagan announced in November.

Palin has been running for President for 3 years, where have you been? Told everyone here last month she was a cinch to get into this race and I got laughed at.

Did I miss something? Palin still isn't in this race.

One must have their head in the clouds to to think she will not officially enter very soon.

Intrade has her at a less than 50% chance of even declaring.

She has essentially no chance of winning.

I've written something up on this before, but I'd be surprised if she runs. She's smart enough to know her influence drops significantly when she loses any attempt.

Please, God. Pleeeeeeeeeeeease

She just wants attention and money without having to work hard for it. No way it is a lock that she will actually run imo

this. palin running means willow is a lock for next year's dancing with the starzzzz

Palin can definitely win the nom

no, she can't. For the same reasons Bachman cant win.

Palins popularity amongst Republicans is something like 25% like and 65% hate. She just doesnt have widespread support in the base nor is she going to win over the haters.

Read this article earlier:
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...-his-hand.html
Huntsman may actually be the favourite for the GOP nomination if the stars line up right

Lolololololol phill

Palin has 68/25 favorable/unfavorable rating among republicans, higher than almost any other republican running. She has a 38/55 rating among the general population.

http://www.pollingreport.com/p.htm

Palin is one of the few who could announce this late and be a serious contender, but she needs to do so soon before all the money lines up behind someone else (probably Perry).

I think you're letting your desires get in the way of your judgement. You may wish that Palin had no chance, but this doesn't make it so.


Palin is very popular with the Republican primary electorate. She taps into a sense of grievance with the status quo that is very powerful. Palin is also the closest the GOP has to a rock star right now. Even people who don't follow politics know who Sarah Palin is. Somehow, after half a term as the Gov of a state with a tiny population and a short failed run at national office, she's become the most famous Republican eligible to run for the WH (GWB & Arnold say hi).


edit: I'm talking "fame" in a People magazine/celebrity worship sense of the word

This late? This is not late imo.

I originally thought this too, but after a few days it will just be depressing that someone so stupid is given attention and taken seriously by anyone.