This was the 5th post of the thread. Well Done Sir!

I think the 2012 cycle will go down in the books as RMoney managed to avoid the implosions of his competitors. He's a lousy campaigner, and a worse gaff machine than Biden. But his peers were even worse.

Romney is a pretty horrible POTUS candidate, and will get killed.

1. Not likable, huge unfavorables, boring as ****
2. Holds extreme positions out of the mainstream
3. No new ideas
4. Facing a super awesome campaigner and politician who is an incumbent
5. Inferior organization / ground game
6. Economy getting better at the worst time

and other stuff i am forgetting

What are these, exactly? I thought the consensus on Romney is that he is such a panderer that he'll never hold a position out of the mainstream of the electorate he'd trying to appeal to. So even if some of his current positions are out of the mainstream of the general electorate, he'll change them once he gets into full-on GE mode.

Romney's no super-candidate, but he doesn't have any ROflaws like Goldwater or McGovern. He's a bit like Kerry, but it wouldn't have taken much for Kerry to win.

After that convention R.Money is sprinting to the center imo.

Running hard right in the primary and then sprinting to the center is much tougher in the days of YouTube, imo.

Also in the days of 30 debates watched by tens of millions.

Though I wonder, due to Romney's reputation as a flip-flopper, he might stay on the right because there will be sharper eyes on him than a typical candidate.

According to Intrade, Santorum (or any other non-Romney's) chances of being the Republican nominee are lower than that of Clinton or Biden becoming the Democratic nominee.

Sounds like could be +EV to assassinate Obama.






I'm kidding! Please don't ban me, Wookie.

Please don't investigate me, Secret Service.

Delete that post. The SS is crazy.

Prediction: Santorum drops out before Pennsylvania. Getting crushed in your home state is one thing, getting crushed twice in your home state is the worst* that can happen to a politician.

*wide stances and related stuff being the exception

Corporations are people.

He likes to fire people.

All underwater mortgagers should go bankrup and rent from new owners.

Irish Setters should be strapped to cartops.

No abortion, ever.

No evolution.

No climate change.

He supported the Blunt Amendment.

he backed the anti-union laws in Wisconsin and Ohio.

He said the automakers should go bankrupt.

He has no opinion on Afghanistan. Ten years, he doesn't know enough.

He wants to put Bush economics advisers in charge of tax, trade, and budget.

He hates internet poker.

if only this wasn't mainstream

bonus quote from the old who will be the nominee thread (nov 2010 thread). feel free to guess the poster. he was 'no way romneying' a lot, and when pressed for his breakdown of the frontrunners chances went with:


anyhow, now that it is in the bag (and has been for a while), i just wanted to make a bad beat post that while i did get a dece bit of action down, black friday and no internet pokers only allowed me to get down about 15-20% as much as i had intended. but i think there is some small edge when both dvaut1 and myself are thinking romney is the 'lock of the week' and he is at +300, +200 etc

and now i am no nate silver, and i am just a dumb hick poker player and ron paul supporter from kentucky, but i will re-iterate to all of you that i think that obama 2012 at -200 is printing printing printing. i know that dvaut may have said he only thinks obama is ~60ish% (i think?), but i think the true line is pretty, pretty crazy. (like 10-1+ crazy)

obama 2012, put the money in the bag my friends. this tip is a rootbone, 2016 will cost you

Yeah if I had the money to invest....Obama to win would get a big slice.

I doubt I would have bet on mittens pre-michigan. A mortal lock who still has national primary polls under 40% with half plus of the contests done.

I'm still diagnosing misconceptions I had. The biggest was that some voters stuck with newt. If Romney pulls it out, I think he owes Gingrich and Adelson more than anyone. I'm still baffled by palins non-interference. I thought Santorum knew how to campaign.....if I can brag on one thing it was being mystified by why his early polling was so bad. I didn't give enough credence to local press reporting on how stupid Perry was....even in circa2002 the economist had him pegged as an idiot.

The biggest mistake about Romney was not remembering the early phases of the 2000 primary. With good polling, Elizabeth Dole dropped out. She saw the array of money and organization a bad candidate she could beat, dollar for dollar, bush43 had, and despaired. I guess 2010 wasn't what we thought it was? Money still trumps conservatism in the GOP.

ya if I had any gs to wager I'd happily put them towards Obama getting it, not gonna be very close imo, and the lines are off at this point

political lines are more skewed by emotion than even sports, which is kind of surprising (see RP on intrade, for example)

I'd make sure I had the cash to cover my Obama bet if polling flipped and Romney got into -125 range.

I give RMoney a point for not just using his cash this time to run. Maybe he reviewed the Whitman, Fiorino, & McMahon debacles where cash can actually cause a loss. Or maybe he's not as liquid as he thought. He still sucks as a campaigner. They discussed his presentation this morning, how he should just be the boardroom guy, keep him in suits & ties. My first thought was Brownie from the Katrina fiasco. The picture just doesn't fit for the campaign trail.

in b4 "This website has been confiscated as a measure of National Security" with a DOJ emblem

above

He is more likeable than the rest, he holds positions that are most accurate, he does not need ideas, leave the ideas to the American public, facing an obvious con-man as incumbent, message will be broadcast, economy getting better.

So my car is a person too?

Should people also not have the right to freely congregate and assemble?