Balls is a rank outsider and has absolutely no public appeal as leader, he's worse than Ed. His wife on the other hand... http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...-labour-leader

Labour majority favourite for next government too, although it's tight between that, a Tory majority, and Tory/Lib Coalition. http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/...ext-government

Agree with your points on Clegg. Interestingly (maybe playing it fast and loose with that word), my Mum is running for the Lib Dem party presidency this summer after Tim Farron's second term. Might email Paddypower to see if I can get odds on that

I hadn't realised Labour is the theoretical front runner today, though in reality I expect Conveniences ate still ahead when you factor in expectations for the next year.

Balls lack of support in the wider public is equalled by his support in the financers of the party. I don't recall offhand how Labour elects leaders nowadays, if all party members get an equal vote then sure he almost certainly can't win.

I agree with most of the points above. Milliband just doesn't have much in the way of public appeal and for Labour to be only slightly ahead after a few years of 'austerity' and cuts tells you all you need to know. They don't really have anyone else who immediately jumps out as being popular with the electorate. David Milliband was the obvious one but the short sightedness (stupidity) of the unions basically put paid to that.

As for the Lib Dems. To me they've always been a party of opposition that go for populist polices (possibly with the exception of their stance on Europe) that you can come up with when you have the knowledge that you'll never actually be in government. Now that they are in government, albeit in a coalition, and having to deal with the reality of making decisions their supporters are having to take their heads out of the clouds and they don't like what they see.

I think the tuition fees details for both Labour and the Libs tells you a lot about them and the validity of their campaign positions.

It is hilarious that the Libs have lost a lot of support because they got into some power and influenced a lot of policy with solid proposals like making taxation more progressive getting passed.

The childishness of thinking they should have not formed a coalition if they had to abandon some of their campaign policies is hilarious to see. The party deserves better than the supporters they had.

I've always, maybe incorrectly, pegged a lot of the lib dem support as being students who are impressed with their right on policies. It's easy to support a party who avoid any unpopular policies if you don't actually expect them to get into government.

Balls is not 2 the left of miliband. Balls is linked to brown too much to have any major appeal, plus he would never win the party leadership vote due to lack of support with labour MPs and members. Yuevtte cooper is god awful, she is terrible on question time and doesn't seem able to hold an intelligent debate but when has that ever been an issue. She just seems so fake and pathetic to me. Two strong outsiders to me would be Tristen hunt the shadow education minister and chukka umunha? Spell check! on my phone so can't double check. Those would be a clear break from the past and they offer a better chance of winning the 2020 election.

Do you guys seriously not think UKIP will win many seats? They crushed the Lib Dems in the European elections and at least to me they seem poised to beat them in the next general election.

Time will tell but the European elections aren't really seen as being all that important so they are ideal for a protest vote. A general election is a different beast altogether.

Not much correlation between success in european vote and the big one. UKIP will do amazingly well if they win 2 seats.

I'd set the o/u on UKIP seats at 3-4

Okay, so looking at politicalbetting.com, UKIP could totally beat the Lib Dems by 5% of the total vote and crush the other 3rd parties and still not win a single seat? And the Lib Dems could win 19! That's screwed up.

Like by what % of the total vote would UKIP have to get to start gaining more seats than the Libs? Anyone have one of those swing calculators we can play with?

And lol at thinking Cleggie did well in the Euro debates. You could smell the stink from over on this side of the Atlantic. But I guess it is hard to argue for an outdated, bloated, over regulatory, and bureaucratic super-state.

When you guys finally vote to leave the EU. It'll be a really good day.

Balls is not the frontrunner nor is he to the left of Milliband - who's as leftist a Labour leader as you could expect to get right now.

According to the markets the most likely outcome of the next election is a Labour win.

UKIP's support is pretty well dispersed all over the country and they are not at all entrenched in any constituencies. For all their faults the Lib Dems have very good local branches and MPs, and can focus their resources on the constituencies they feel they will win. In contrast, UKIP will struggle to field 5 competent candidates and, whilst enthusiastic, their grass-roots is not as efficient as the Lib Dem members. Finally, many potential Lib Dems will tactically vote Labour (or, less occasionally, Tory) whereas I get the feeling 'Kippers are more likely to just vote Ukip regardless of whether or not they have a chance in that particular constituency, so they may very well achieve a higher raw vote % than the Lib Dems without winning a seat.

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I think the most interesting thing to reflect on after this government is said and done will be the no vote in the AV referendum. If it had passed then this UKIP tremor could have genuinely turned into the earthquake Farage promised.

Yea that is a great observation, it would have been quite ironical if the Liberals had achieved their life time goal of electoral reform just in time for UKIP to reap the fruits of their labour.

I'd say its the reversed of screwed up.

UKIP are having a huge real impact on british politics entirely in line with and due to their electoral support. they have an excellent chance of forcing a in-out referendum which is their raison-d'etra.

It simply not the case that political sucess/influence is measured in seats.

Totally agree with you about Cleggie doing well in the debate. It was a pathetic apology of a performance and reflected in their result.

Farage made the telling point that he was expecting to be debating with somone who was pro-EU, not someone who defended the EU by saying it didn't do much apart from trade and would continue to not do much.

If Cleggie had actually argued for the EU he would have taken a lot of flack but also gained a lot of credit, he would have been a proper leader and might well have a following.

Some crazy as **** amount probably. It's not about winning votes across the country, it's about winning a majority in a small area. When you are just billing yourself as the breakaway racist wing of the conservative party you don't do well except across a large area or in low low turnout elections.

Whoever put the line at 3.5 seats is probably optimistic of their chances. I could reasonably see them getting one or two but they certainly never win enough to be a factor.

Yeah, 3 is an overestimate. FWIW I think you can get better than evens on >0 seats.

Conservative cabinet reshuffle: David Cameron targets women and Ukip

Questions to the Prime Minister, July 17th, 2014

Lol, again, its just called PMQs. The video title says as much.

Don't let them change ya Row

Since there were no Questions to the Prime Minister this week, and in honor of William Hague stepping down as the Foreign Secretary, I've decided to post some of his best moments in parliament.