Clearly, the SNP

Has the figure though which was being asked for, £4b over 10 years. Though apparently that's a big fat lie, actually scots been rolling in cash, SNP funneling billions into secret offshore tax havens

Hmmm. I'm all for conspiracy theories, SNP is a bourgeois party and mainstream scottish papers are tools of the ruling class ofc. But this is rather far fetched even for me. For instance where is the money going and why do tories love scots not to cut their budget, where is your graph and figures from? You may poo poo my link but at least that was a study carried out by a prof, commissioned by a union which has no reason to promote or undermine SNP.

If you're trying to claim the figures I posted are false then come right out and say it, but you should know better. Those figures I posted are the Scottish government's own.

If you wish to make an argument from incredulity rather than on the basis of the facts then go ahead.

Lol, just lol.

No I'm genuinely confused because what you are saying makes zero sense and isn't backed up anywhere. Except this one graph you post, which has no cite and contradicts every newspaper article and report I have seen.

exactly lol

seriously though you need to do better than this graph.

And the Welsh are lying as well, **** welsh.

https://beta.gov.scot/news/joint-cal...ent-austerity/

I was interested in this, mostly out of pure curiosity as I don't have particularly strong feelings either way about the SNP/how Scotland's finances are being handled, and so I've spent way too long looking over the budget reports you got these from. Simply put this is a complete misrepresentation of the data.

For starters, you might notice the local government figure has a superscript 2 by it, which if you'd read would have told you that a large amount of the money previously accounted for under that category was moved elsewhere from 2013-2014 onwards. Including the amount that was moved to other categories results in the spending in that area being essentially flat.

As for specifically health spending, that has risen by ~18% (11,181M to 13,168M) over this period, where the overall discretionary budget has gone up by ~7%. Incidentally about a 1/4 of this overall discretionary budget increase is due specifically to devolved powers being used to raise extra money for spending - 450million from devolved borrowing powers and 71million from increasing the higher rate tax band in line with inflation, as opposed to the larger increase to 45,000 in the UK generally. I'm struggling to see where this narrative of SNP austerity is coming from.

One graph I post? The figures I posted are lifted directly from the Scottish government budget document. Can't link as I'm on my phone but if you got to the Scottish government site and search for 'budget' you'll find it. You'll have to go to the very end of the document though as it's hidden away at the back funnily enough. The graph is posted from a site that done an analysis of the figures but I'll post it when I get home. It should be fairly obvious though that a figure that has increased by over 10% in 7 years is unlikely to result in a big real term cut as the period concerned, till fairly recently, had very low inflation (and even a period of deflation).

Now all that being said do you have any comment on the big cuts to local government budgets during the period the Scottish government budget has gone up?

Did you just ignore my post responding to those figures? The big cuts to local government is a complete misrepresentation of the data due to changes in how the values were reported from 2013-14 onwards and accounting for that the "big cuts" is actually almost exactly flat in £ and a small cut (roughly in line with the overall cut) in real terms.

I haven't looked it up yet, but the onus is on you to respond to willd at this point

Ah, I'm forgetting that Police and Fire Services are no longer included in that figure. However it is the case that Local Government is being underfunded in comparison to the Scottish Govt budget. Here's the Accounts Commission's latest report:

http://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/new...ze-on-councils

The Scottish Government provides around two thirds of council budgets. This fell by 5.2 per cent in 2016/17 to £9.7 billion.

“Councils continue to face significant financial and demographic challenges, and the scale of these continues to grow. Council budgets are under increasing pressure from a long-term decline in revenue funding (in real terms) from the Scottish Government, and council services are under pressure from an ageing and growing population. Policy and legislative requirements are also changing how councils work and the services they must deliver.”

It should be noted that it would've fallen further but the Greens forced the SNP to reduce the cuts to Local Government in order to get their support to pass the budget. It couldn't pass without the Greens support.

We can also look directly to the Scottish Parliament Information Centre for confirmation of the changes:

https://digitalpublications.parliame...rnment-budgets





I'll get back to you re NHS spending tomorrow

To add to the above Kevin Hague does some great work looking at these things and his analysis is used by politicians etc

Here's his blog on the impact of UK austerity on the Scottish budget for 2017/18:

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/201...scotlands.html

And here's a look at the spin involved in the budget document:

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/201...sh-budget.html

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/201...t-part-ii.html

http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/201...-part-iii.html

Still looks like a 9 percent cut over the 10 year period. Dont know why looking at a cumulative figure is less accurate than year on year, let's assess the total damage. I'm no fan of the SNP, they are as complicit as local labour councils for rubber stamping cuts. They may or may not be able to more progressively implement cuts but if the money isnt there to begin with it would make a lot more sense to tell May, Hammond et al, and support the kind of politics labour is now advocating.

And, with 3 young kids looking at a combined student debt of 200k, not being able to vote from 16 and prescription charges give me SNP right now over tories/ new lab any day.

It's almost like 37% is not a minority. WTF are you on?


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Also big lol at the concept of decade remembering exclusivity. They remember the 50s but not the 70s. Wat?


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I can now confidently say that I know far more about the Scottish budget than would ever be useful to me. I can also say that I still don't know enough to have a clear view as to how the general UK austerity is effecting it. The main area that I can't quite get my head around is the borrowing power of the devolved government, and whether it is fair to include that when comparing to the budget provided from Westminster before this power was given to Scotland directly.

If Westminster is borrowing less due to the fact that Scotland has the power to borrow money directly now, and that this is at least partially responsible for some of the reduction in revenue available to Scotland, then it does seem fair to compare spending power directly. However if the revenue available to Scotland would be the same even if they didn't have the power to borrow directly then comparing it seems fair to compare the values pre and post devolution without the additional borrowing (this is what is done in the budget report and is a large part of the criticism in the blogs Husker linked). Unfortunately I don't know how or even if it's possible to make any sort of estimate as to the effect of this so can't really get any further with that analysis.

What can be said, I think fairly, is that the spending power of the Scottish Government has been somewhere between flat to slightly increasing in real terms y/y for the last 4-5 years. I also think it's accurate to say that specifically funding for local governments has been down relative to the overall budget over that time period. However spending in other areas, in particular health, has increased quite significantly relative to the overall budget, so I guess it's a case of what is being prioritised and what your opinion is on that as to how you would view the SNP's managing of the budget.

I would add the commitment to reduce borrowing is an ideological pursuit which the SNP seem in principle opposed to. As you say, the extent to which borrowing affects these figures isn't clear.
Also agree this is essentially a question of budgeting priorities eg. hospital beds vs school books vs social care vs students vs infrastructure etc which isn't really cause for strong disagreement.

Thanks for taking the time to look at it and I agree the issue around borrowing does muddy the waters a bit.
Ultimately clarity isn't helped by the attempts to spin the figures presented in the budget document, as detailed in the blogs above. The respected Fraser of Allander institute, who are frequently quoted by Scottish government ministers when it suits them, made the following point about the budget:

"Final Thoughts

It is debateable whether or not comparisons just with 2010/11 are appropriate. 2010/11 marked the year when the Scottish Government’s RDEL budget was at its historic peak following years of significant growth. The 2017/18 RDEL budget in real terms is around that in 2007/08.

And of course, the Scottish Government can – if it wants to – increase its discretionary budget by raising tax. And here lies a weakness in the Scottish Government’s argument. Budgets are about choices. The Scottish Government this year will raise just over £100m from its policy to set a lower threshold for the Higher Rate of income tax than set in the rest of the UK. But it could raise substantially more than this if it chose to, through its control over income tax and land and property taxation in Scotland.

In our view none of this debate is helped by the way in which the Scottish Government presents its budget.

The information in the budget isn’t particularly easy to understand. And the selective data that the government presents often appears designed to support their arguments rather than to help inform debate.

As we will argue in a blog tomorrow, an improved budget process is a necessity. With the Scottish budget now dependent not simply on a block grant from Westminster but on devolved taxes, debates are only going to get even more complex. We urgently require a process that is more fit for purpose."

Their recommendations are linked here but I've highlighted some below:

https://fraserofallander.org/2017/01...udget-process/

"3. The format of the Draft Budget Document needs to be overhauled

The Draft Budget document is confusing and overly complex. It is difficult for even seasoned public finance professionals like ourselves to follow.

Improvements should include:

The Budget document needs to be clearer on the split between factual information/data and policy/political interpretation. At the moment it is a muddle between a policy document and the authoritative source of budget data.
Rather than helping to clarify the complexities of public sector budgets, the current document often only adds to the confusion. Different chapters focus on different definitions of spending (e.g fiscal DEL, total DEL or TME) for no apparent reason. Some settlements – e.g. the exact settlement for local government – aren’t even in the budget at all but published elsewhere. Greater consistency is needed.
A time series should be published from – at the very least – the start of the last spending review (and ideally longer).
The practice of apportioning monies to one portfolio but appearing elsewhere in the actual accounts needs to be clarified. The verbal sparring around local services vs. local government budgets this year is a case in point.
"

"6. Information showing how the new fiscal framework is working needs to be more transparent

The new fiscal framework is inherently complex. The result is a budget process that does not naturally lend itself to transparency. For example, under the new framework there is the potential for budgets well into the next decade to still to be impacted by the fall-out from any forecast errors made this year!

Some suggested ways to help tackle this include:

Related to the above, it will also be important to clearly set out what is driving changes in the overall budget– is it because of UK cuts to the block grant, better/worse economic performance in Scotland (or the UK) or technical adjustments to the fiscal framework?"

Ultimately I'd argue, and others already have done much better than me in the blogs linked above, that they don't actually want to improve the clarity and transparency of the figures for political reasons, i.e. blame 'Westminster' for everything.

And re the original discussion about the funding cuts to local authorities it looks like even more are on the way...

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/1...n_budget_cut_/

So with the actual release of the budget today it seems like that article was unfounded, or at least exaggerated. In cash terms funding for local governments will be up ~£100mil and in real terms down ~£60mil - certainly nowhere near the £300mil mentioned in the article. Additionally with the public sector pay rises (2-3%) and NHS funding increase at double the rate of inflation the SNP-driven-austerity rhetoric doesn't seem to ring true.

who is this supersoldier you blokes have been hiding

There's still a real terms cut and Local Authorities will also need to find the money to fund the (welcome) 2-3% pay increase.

However we also need to look beyond the numbers at the politics behind it. Now that the SNP are a minority government they need the support of the Greens to get the budget through. Last year the Greens only agreed to this after reducing the cuts to local govt by £160m.
Since then they have repeatedly banged on about two things they'd expect in the budget, an inflation level increase for public sector workers and fair funding for local authorities. The SNP won't get a budget through with larger cuts and indeed the Greens have said today that they won't support the budget that was announced unless funding to local govt is increased.

To quote one of their MSP's today:
"The MSP said councils had for years been treated as "second cousins" in Scotland's political system, and had been forced to "accept crumbs from the table from the Scottish government".

He added: "We want a real terms increase (in council budgets) and that would involve somewhere in the region of £150m as I calculate it this morning". "

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotlan...itics-42365171

The tax changes in the system announced in the budget have seen people earning around £50k getting a tax cut, whereas many below this level will see a tax increase. The SNP have said this is an 'anomaly' in the system.
It's expected the Greens will push for this 'anomaly' to be corrected and the increased income, along with income from elsewhere, given to local govt.