https://twitter.com/libdemdeposits

£169k

it would appear that CNN has commandeered one of your buses and was possibly on it the entire night

Well that was better than I expected. Balls gone, the correct PM chosen, snp will get to cry into their porridge for five years and will speed up English votes on English issues and ukip fell flat.

EU referendum is likely to be to stay but that is the only concern I have about the result.

Gin,
What is the deal with NI in Scotland?

Do the Tories have a majority? American here so just woke up...went to see what happened in the midlands and it listed cons on 326, and holding Nuneaton and Rugby (and pretty much all the midlands).

Prob that they get even more money from Westminster

Yes, they're at 327 at the moment and are expecting a few more still.

Yes, NI = Northern Ireland, not National Insurance

Ah got it

Getting money moved from Scotland and the south east into the north of England which has massive under investment needs to be a big priority in the next gov imo

Definitely, but I think that much of the real challenge is to get the private sector to be far less London-centric and make their investments, head offices and future expansion further north, and in the south west.

Governments throwing money at this somewhat intractable problem seems to produce prettier towns with better amenities, but seems to have little effect on endemic poverty.

With this 5 year fixed term thing, it seems the Tories are locked in power until 2020.

He still had to command a majority. There's some rule that if they lose a confidence vote and can't win one within 14 days then it's another election.

Also if 2/3rds of the house vote for a new election which seems a less likely route but could happen if the tories found they couldn't govern (maybe lose a bi-election or 2 along the way) and wanted a new election without losing a confidence vote. Could have great fun and games if the opposition wanted a vote of no confidence so much they opposed this option but also couldn't easily win a no confidence vote.

That's how I understand it anyway but it's all new.

yeah, it's somewhat reminiscent of the major government in '92 except much less unstable. that said, it wouldn't take too much to destabilise things as it stands, backbenchers getting rustled over local issues, eurosceptic defections if cameron starts messing around with renegotiations, etc etc.

Those who want an informed opinion on the FTPA would do well to give this a read:

http://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2011/...2%80%99s-ship/

well in theory yes a vote of no confidence is a risk and a marginal majority is risk.

However this is the break down
Seats
Conservative Party
David Cameron
330
It is rumored there could be some conflicts of opinion on certain issues but I doubt they would seriously want to issue a vote of no confidence against there leader and risk losing power.

Labour Party
Ed Miliband
232
opposed to the Tories on most policies, so 232 votes will go against Tories in most issues or in confidence vote.


Scottish National Party
Nicola Sturgeon
56

Drastically opposed to the Torys and will likely try to be a thorn in there side on every issue.

Liberal Democrats
Nick Clegg
8
typically known as a left wing party and known to have been "punished" by a lot of there core voters for supporting Tory will likely be eager to distance themselves from Tories to try win back this vote.


Democratic Unionist Party
Peter Robinson
8
agrees with the Tories on quite a few issues and is often seen as right wing not likely to be opposed to Tories however they have some controversial views on gay rights. Cameron would be careful to not be seen to closely with them. If it came down to, they would likely support the Tories if needed but Cameron would definitely want to avoid been seen as aligned with them.

Sinn Féin
Gerry Adams
4
they usually abstain so will likely not have much affect on anything and can be taken out of the equation.

Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
Leanne Wood
3

anti tory socialist side

Social Democratic and Labour Party
Alasdair McDonnell
3
anti tory and socialist
Ulster Unionist Party
2
has had ties with Tories before likely to lean towards Tory
UK Independence Party
Nigel Farage
1
former Tory differing opinions on Europe but likely to support tory policies
Green Party
Natalie Bennett
1
very anti Tory
Others
1 I guess this is the speaker who is meant to be a political in there position so doesnt count

Yep.

Pretty sure Cameron will push on with the referendum which defuses so much of the eurosceptic problem for him. They will push him for harder negotiations but that's mostly noise and fury rather than votes in parliament. In practical terms they can't ask for much more than letting the people decide. If they have the referendum and 'out' wins then it will be mayhem but it's effectively no chance imo.

Other issues rarely matter that much even if they lose a fair few.

so for the Decent and common sense

Conservatives Yay
330
DUP
8
Cameron would not want to rely on there support and I am pro gay rights so would not want to see this either but if push comes to shove they likely to back Tory side.

ultra unionist party
2
has been aligned with Tories before not likely to turn on them

UKIP
1
was once a Tory MP would not want to see labor getting in unlikely to turn

total

330 tory+ 8 DUP 2UUP +1 UKIP= 341 Tory side

National socialist side (I like to add the word National in for associating it with more extreme versions of itself which it has worrying though less dangerous signs off from its supporters)

Labor
232
SNP
56
Lib Dems
8
plaid
3
social democrat
3
green 1
=lab 232+ SNP 56+ lib dem 8+ plaid 3+SD 3 + green 1= 303

this leaves us with
341 v 303 making 644 relevant votes. it means the National socialist side would have to take 20 votes away from the right side which may not seem like much but a bi election would not do it you would need a full back bench rebellion. or the likes.

I am sure Tories would like to be in a stronger position it would be misleading to describe there position now as strong However it is not as weak as some are making out.

I think it is conceivable if enough back benches and core support from marginal right wing parties feels strong enough on a particular or particular issues then Cameron may have difficulty getting policies relating to that whatever it may be through.

However I do not believe a vote of no confidence is realistic and I do not believe it likely that such a parliament would deviate far from the core Tory philosophy.

I think I'm actually suffering from political fatigue. We had the referendum in September last year after a long, long campaign and then we've gone into a general election and next year there will be a further election campaign for the Scottish parliament. Will also need to throw in a Euro referendum somewhere down the line as well now.

Hopefully the back benchers will have learned the lessons of the Major administration and such disagreements and dirty laundry as there may be will be aired privately.

It's kind of a catch 22 where improving services and/or cutting business rates will improve private investment in the area etc. I dont have a generally positive view of councils, esp not here in the teesside area, but giving them the options to have money to invest in services and lower business rates is definitely a positive if the cash had strings so they couldn't just horde it or do something goofy like invest a load in the flowers fund to make the place pretty three months of the year but do virtually nothing to help people.

More investment like Nissan being attracted to Sunderland or more locally to me Darlington building an entertainment complex in the town centre right now will have knock on positives and fundamentally cash from central gov will let these projects happen.

First time I've looked in detail at the results and I've just realised the SNP's vote was only up 3.1% and yet this took them from 6 to 56 seats

I'd assumed a much larger increase.

A bit can be done but infrastructure makes the real difference.

There has to be a critical mass of people working in the area, able to get to the other main areas and able to live somewhere decent they can get to work from.

Quality affordable transport links and superb internet connectivity are probably the main prerequisites these days. Then any investment starts to make a huge difference.

Yeah one of the things, IMO, that differentiates parliamentary systems is how much more intra-party dissent is frowned upon on all but the most trivial issues. Though one could say this is occurring more and more in the US