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06-04-2017 , 10:35 AM
Pardon?
06-04-2017 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by diebitter
Aww thought experiments to try and will the future. That's sweet.
I don't think Silver is trying to will anything. He seems to be an establishment democrat which would make him a UK conservative roughly speaking.
06-04-2017 , 11:56 AM
Former Senior MET officer on Sky this afternoon and accused May of lying about police numbers and cuts and said we are less safe because of them. He was asked 3 times if he was accusing the government of lying and three times he said yes.




Doesn't seem to have made it to the BBC yet. Is it now a case that reporting news breaches impartiality?

Last edited by epcfast; 06-04-2017 at 12:24 PM.
06-04-2017 , 12:55 PM
It's Sunday and they probably have to get a government spokesperson to comment in the interests of 'balance'.
06-04-2017 , 01:06 PM
Unfortunately I think even the dullard that is Theresa May can see how to finagle an advantage out of this for Thursday's election by introducing tougher measures against suspected terrorists.
06-04-2017 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Unfortunately I think even the dullard that is Theresa May can see how to finagle an advantage out of this for Thursday's election by introducing tougher measures against suspected terrorists.
Sure, but it's equally easy for Labour to point to today's "Enough is enough" soundbite as a declaration of failure. She's been Home Secretary since 2010, and has cut police funding and stretched resources to such an extent that she's lost the confidence of the officers.

Combine this with the arrogant, patronising "There's no magic money tree" quote from the other night and Corbyn has an open goal here. The tories pledge to squeeze public funding and minimise the tax burden on the mega-wealthy; Labour proposes the exact opposite and this is a great example of why Labour's way is better for everyone.
06-04-2017 , 02:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by epcfast
My original point was that this was a clear grab for people's assets - and it is.
You argued against that and can change the subject and ramble on all you like.
It's you who have tried to steer the direction of the argument elsewhere, not me.

I have clearly argued the new system is less fair to people who have care at home, and more fair to residential care. So, some people will be worse off, and some will be better off, but in all cases they will now be guaranteed £100k instead of £23500, and as many people who start off needing home care regress to residential care, then it will affect less people than you original argued.

And I still think that if the current system was the one being brought in, and the cap being lowered from £100k to £23500, then there would be a far bigger outcry.

I'd also add that just because I think the new system is "better", doesn't mean it's ideal, or even good. They are both poor, but the new one less so.

Anyway, I've enjoyed the discussion and although I've not changed my view, it has made me reflect on them. It's good to see someone who can clearly argue their position without resorting to personal attacks after 2 posts when their argument starts to unravel.
06-04-2017 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LostOstrich
Sure, but it's equally easy for Labour to point to today's "Enough is enough" soundbite as a declaration of failure. She's been Home Secretary since 2010, and has cut police funding and stretched resources to such an extent that she's lost the confidence of the officers.

Combine this with the arrogant, patronising "There's no magic money tree" quote from the other night and Corbyn has an open goal here. The tories pledge to squeeze public funding and minimise the tax burden on the mega-wealthy; Labour proposes the exact opposite and this is a great example of why Labour's way is better for everyone.
Sure, but last night's attack enables the Tories (backed by the media) to make their traditional strongholds of security and its close-relative defence the main talking points until Thursday.
06-04-2017 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Sure, but last night's attack enables the Tories (backed by the media) to make their traditional strongholds of security and its close-relative defence the main talking points until Thursday.
You'd think so but they didn't do that with the concert attack last week. The approach has been slightly different this week, but I'm not sure any one will notice.
06-04-2017 , 03:21 PM
True. Call me a cynic but the average of polls gave the Tories +9 then but +6 now.
06-04-2017 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldgoat
Corbyn needs to follow suit and go big on police resources.
easiest decision ever

go round telling people that at a time when the terrorism alarm is in the red zone, the tories keep cutting the police budget in order to give the money to banks and people are going to die as a result. i mean really spice it up

plus this line of attack has the added bonus of being slightly true
06-04-2017 , 03:29 PM
.. as well as consistent with their actual policy.
06-04-2017 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV
I'm not really a fan of 538/Silver. They a lot of credit for being smarter than election pundits: they are but that is damning with faint praise. They really screwed up in 2015.

That said there just might be something to this article. I recall a story about two game theorists going to a conference in a taxi and discussing the optimal amount they should tip. The taxi driver got fed up with the both of them and threw them out on the street before reaching the conference.

This may be what is happening with electorates. They may just be sick of being told what to think.
From a betting perspective then, what's the best thing to go for?
06-04-2017 , 04:07 PM
Anything over evens for Tories under 370 seats looks good to me assuming no nationwide torrential downpours on Thursday.
06-04-2017 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
It's you who have tried to steer the direction of the argument elsewhere, not me.

I have clearly argued the new system is less fair to people who have care at home, and more fair to residential care. So, some people will be worse off, and some will be better off, but in all cases they will now be guaranteed £100k instead of £23500, and as many people who start off needing home care regress to residential care, then it will affect less people than you original argued.

And I still think that if the current system was the one being brought in, and the cap being lowered from £100k to £23500, then there would be a far bigger outcry.

I'd also add that just because I think the new system is "better", doesn't mean it's ideal, or even good. They are both poor, but the new one less so.

Anyway, I've enjoyed the discussion and although I've not changed my view, it has made me reflect on them. It's good to see someone who can clearly argue their position without resorting to personal attacks after 2 posts when their argument starts to unravel.
We'll have to agree to differ.
I've never argued the merits of either policy - just pointed out that this was clearly a grab on those assets they've had their eyes on for ages.

In the meantime Jeremy Corbyn again talks sense and is showing how much more capable he is than May.

06-04-2017 , 04:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Anything over evens for Tories under 370 seats looks good to me assuming no nationwide torrential downpours on Thursday.
What about anything over evens for Labour getting 220 seats or more?
06-04-2017 , 05:04 PM
Spreadex has Labour seats between 199-205 aorn
06-04-2017 , 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiTabling
From a betting perspective then, what's the best thing to go for?
I'll put that in the betting thread since I'm posting too much gambling stuff in this one.
06-04-2017 , 05:32 PM
NSFWish

Spoiler:
06-04-2017 , 05:40 PM
Well seems Labour finally decided to go big on police cuts as Corbyn has made a speech this evening. Just need to make some party political video's of when Theresa May dismissed effects of police cuts at police federation events. Also attacked May over not releasing Terror funding report just because it contains Saudi Arabia.
06-04-2017 , 05:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thethethe
NSFWish

Spoiler:
A*
06-04-2017 , 07:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBV
I'll put that in the betting thread since I'm posting too much gambling stuff in this one.
I will await your post there.
06-05-2017 , 07:16 AM
Labour really going for it over police cuts. JC calling for May to resign is being reported.
06-05-2017 , 08:01 AM
JC said he supported those calling for her resignation but said that the best place to deal with it is the election on thursday.
Still nothing on the BBC about the ex Met officer saying she's lying abut police numbers.
06-05-2017 , 08:14 AM
Who knew?

Quote:
Your result: Left wing

Left wing: you favour equality and social change
http://www.whoshouldyouvotefor.com/index.php

The 2017 post-manifesto election version suggests I should vote conservative - I assume because of my opposition to re-nationalisation and cutting university fees, whereas everything else I'm pretty neutral.

      
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