This is mainly just waffle to be honest. If you want to use business as an example it's common for a business to carry large debts but it's losses (deficits) that cause their downfall.

This is all very basic stuff.

Yea it must have been all the confidence around 2008 that caused the deficit to shoot up.

That was me. I got it at 9.8.

Lay lay lay?

Nigel Farage is 'person of interest' in FBI investigation into Trump and Russia

I'm saving my "one time" for no overall majority but can someone else use theirs on farage ending up in US federal prison please?

Amber Rudd's dad died on Monday but weak and wobbly May still sent her to face the music.
Cowardly

Yo, long time lurker here. As someone who works in social care I would just like to say this...

F**K MAY
F**K THE TORIES
F**K MORE CUTS TO SOCIAL CARE AND THE NHS

JEZ WE CAN!!!!

I think the polls are wrong. The electorate is in a nihilistic mood worldwide and this country is no exception. I am telling you from someone who lives in a 'safe' Tory constituency that the worm is turning. Several dyed in the wool Tories on my street can't stand May and are coming around to JC. The most Tory til I die man I know has decided to vote for the Lib Dems. Tory voters at work are in two minds. Something is happening here and you don't know what it is, do you, Mrs. May?

Fixed the youtube for you mr lurker

good man!

Would be a waste of a one time.

Yes you could lay it at lower odds. If that's what you're asking?

I'm not so sure. Tory voters usually get under-estimated by pollsters in general elections. I wouldn't be surprised if they get under-estimated yet again. Equally, Labour relies more on young voters, who usually lie in bed half the day and don't bother turning out to vote.

You could be right, but there is too much uncertainty in possible turnout to be sure.

It continues

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/...10676501278720

I went to a lecture by a leading psephologist recently, on the subject of the election.

His view is that by far the likeliest outcome is a Tory majority whose size depends on the number of young people turning out to vote.

More interestingly he thought that anything much less than a majority of 80-ish will significantly weaken May and could be the end of her, and expects a 9 point Tory victory margin to translate to around a 50 seats majority.

She's on QT later on in the day - seems perfectly reasonable to spend some time preparing for that, especially when she wasn't scheduled to appear on WO anyway.

She would resign if she didn't get a majority of at least 80?!!

Not immediately, but his view was that backbench Tory MPs would be extremely unhappy with her for not delivering the rout they (and most people) expected, and the weakening of her authority over the party in conjunction with a pretty poor performance during the campaign might lead to her early demise.

I said much less than 80-ish. No one thinks a majority of 75 is a disaster, but calling an early election to increase one's majority from 17 to only 30 or 40 would be.

Teresa May looked awful on TV yesterday. Haunted to the point of ill health.

I commented to someone at work today that she looks like a waxwork figure. I don't want to go all Trump but I wonder if maybe there are health issues? She's only early 60's so it would be unusual.

EDIT: I didn't realise she has Type 1 diabetes.

She does suffer from type-1 diabetes, so I expect it will be taking it's toll during an election campaign.

Perhaps she could claim disability benefit...oh wait....

The young are coming out to vote this time. The youth of this country are getting shafted in the housing market, shafted at work and are pissed off that they have no time in the week left over to party. This Tory government has been hitting them hard and there is a palpable awareness of that fact.

More than willing to come and eat some humble pie if I'm wrong but I think this is a Trump-Clinton scenario with TM as Clinton- deeply unpopular, seen as part of the establishment, seemingly lacking in basic empathy, 'unassailable' lead in the polls... and JC as Trump- not a 'typical politician', 'tells it like it is', swelling support among a pissed off working class...

Also going to go out on a limb and predict the 'shy tory' factor to be reversed this time with normally right-leaning voters saying f**k it and rolling the dice on election day.

Evidence purely anecdotal but I meet lots of new people every day in my job, work closely with multiple health bodies and meet often with working class families and the anger towards the Tories and TM is very real let me tell you. Talk of an 80 Tory majority laughable IMO.

ZING!

I posted this on the Political Betting thread but I'll post it here as well. Harrow West Labour Win is available at 3.5 @ 888, Unibet (that platform). Got on at 3/1. There's a low chance that the tories are winning this seat. Good local MP, even if Labour end up on a low national vote there going to be up in London disproportionately compared to the rest of the country.

And another ominous sign for Theresa is BAIDS' insistence that she'll canter on June 8th. Having lurked the politics forum and the sport forum on and off for a number of years I have learned one thing- BAIDS- always right when it comes to football, always wrong when it comes to Politics.

I still wouldn't discount her hitting the Tories privately-acknowledged target of an 80 majority, but it's going to be much tougher than expected.