The current case? It's written in 2015. Before England decided to vote for us all to leave the EU.

Even the article says these obstacles can be overcome. It makes even more sense to do it now, seeing as the alternative is just as much of a step into the unknown.

Husker not doing too well in this thread.

Don't worry I'll post the financial case when I get home. There's a reason we haven't seen one from the anyone who supports independence. In fact we could say there's billions of reasons.

I look forward to your in depth comparison of the financial case against independence and why the current course of brexit is so much more stable.

Also, can I borrow your crystal ball and does it work with turns and rivers on Pokerstars?

It isn't that hard to come up with a case for independence if they want to rejoin the EU, which seems to be the idea.

Pre-Brexit I think it would have been fairly simple to make a case that you turn Scotland into Luxembourg and act as a haven for international tax fraud. That's probably what Britain will do.

If I were Scottish I would vote to leave the UK with the aim of rejoining he EU.

But it is going to be funny watching those who insist that the UK cutting ties with our biggest trading partner is extremely costly, suddenly not being so bothered about it when it comes to Scotland leaving the UK.

If it isn't so hard to do you have to wonder why no one appears to have done it. Instead all we get are some general slogans and rhetoric with no substance.

You're basically on track with the second part of your post here.

Yes, very much so - join the gravy train like Ireland did and hopefully not make a total bollocks of it.

Okay so lets look at the case for remaining in the UK (outwith the EU) and leaving the UK (and joining the EU)

First of all, what are the benefits of being within the UK?
At the moment Scotland is running a massive deficit of almost £15bn (actually £14.833bn if North Sea oil is distributed on a geographical basis). See the table below from the Scottish Governments Expenditure and Revenue figures (for 2015/16)



To give an idea of just how big this is the devolved Scottish government’s budget which includes areas such as Local Government, Health, Law and Order, Education, Housing, Farming etc is currently £36.93bn. The Scottish NHS budget, which is included in this, is £12.9bn alone.
Total expenditure in Scotland in 2015/16 was £68.58bn and of the amount that isn't devolved by far the biggest item is Social Security which amounts for over £23.59bn (some of this is in the process of being transferred to Scottish Government control)

Now the UK is also running at a deficit but in comparative terms the UK deficit is 4.2% whereas Scotland’s is 9.4%. This additional deficit, which is £9bn in cash terms is covered by a fiscal transfer from the UK government. Basically this is an additional £9bn over and above Scotland’s tax take. So leaving the UK means losing at least £9bn immediately on independence.

I should add the following for those who’s only reason for independence is ‘The Tories’, the Scottish government’s budget is now higher in real terms that it was pre-austerity in 2007. It went up £100m last year and next year was due to go up by a massive £900m but it will actually be slightly over £1bn when we take into account the figures from last weeks UK budget. You’ll find these figures in the recent Scottish budget document. Note that they’re hidden away in a table on page 179 (out of 186), it’s almost like the SNP don’t want us knowing this.



With regards to the EU and the impact of Brexit, the idea that this is solved by leaving the UK to join the EU is utter nonsense that is easily disproven.
Scotland exports £12.3bn to the EU single market but it exports £49.8bn to the (rest of) UK single market. So the idea that you leave your largest trading market to join one a quarter of the size is madness.
Below is a graphic showing the comparative figures:



This graph shows how the trade has been changing year on year and you can see it’s been stagnant within the EU but growing within the UK.


As you can see since 2002 exports to the EU have increased from £11.4bn to £12.3bn whereas those to the rest of the UK have increased from £28.6bn to £49.8bn

The SNP’s only answer to this is that the EU is a bigger market with bigger potential but this ignores the fact that there has been absolutely nothing blocking our trade with the EU up to now so why hasn’t this ‘potential’ been exploited and how would it suddenly be exploited post-independence?

I should add another quick, but major, point about the EU v UK. Within the EU countries are required to either have a deficit of below 3% or be seen to be taking steps to get below 3% (Chapter 17 of the chapter of the Acquis https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-e...-the-acquis_en ). Scotland as it stands has a bigger deficit than Greece so the austerity we would endure by joining the EU would be on a scale never seen before. Within the UK this gap is funded by the UK so there is absolutely no impact whatsoever for us financially.

So to quickly sum up
In the UK (and ouwith the EU)
+£9bn fiscal transfer to cover the Scottish deficit (over and above the UK deficit)
Free access to our biggest trading partner where we export £49.8bn
We lose free access to the EU single market where we export £12.3bn

In the EU (and outwith the UK)
We lose the £9bn fiscal transfer from the UK
We actually have to pay the EU an unknown amount for membership (seen figures of over £1bn mentioned)
EU imposed austerity to achieve a 3% deficit
Free access to the EU single market with exports of £12.3bn
We lose free access to the UK market with exports of £49.8bn

These figures are just the basics and there’s much more I could add on the matter but I thought it was easier to stick to the large headline figures for now rather than throw up a huge wall of text by going into other areas. If anyone wants to know more, or query the figures etc I’ll do my best to answer where I can. I know that there are various pro-indy sites out there that do their best to spread misinformation about the finances but as most of them have been debunked I can probably address these as well.

Sources:
Scottish Govt Revenue and Expenditure Figures
http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/08/2132/downloads
Scottish Govt Draft Budget
http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2016/12/6610/downloads
Scottish Govt Export Figures
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistic...ESSPublication

*Note that I have clearly used the SNP governments own figures at every point.

Did you watch 'the gravy train'?.

FYP mate

Scotland get 9 bill a year from the rest of the UK?

I fully support a referendum ASAP and hope the Scots embrace their independence.

No. Was it good?

Very long time ago but it was pretty good iirc.

You are one backward individual, and this isn't even poor trolling, you're actually serious which is far worse.

Husker laying down the law here tbh

Scotland wont stop trading with the UK though.

Scotland will be part of the EU and won't be capable of an independent trade deal with the UK. The EU will decide the terms of trade with the UK, what tariffs will be imposed etc.

Basically there will be two entities, The UK and The EU (with Scotland as a member). Scotland won't have some special position within the EU that allows it to have free trade with the UK. That's not how the EU works.

The only way there won't be any trade barriers is if the UK and the EU someone negotiate continued free access to the Single Market for the UK (and this seems very very unlikely). If that's the case then it negates all the SNP complaints about being dragged out of the EU anyway.

I'm being consistent. I voted for my own country to leave a larger union which I didn't feel was democratically accountable to the people in my country, and I have every sympathy with Scots if they feel the same way.

This is so deceitful.

Most voters couldn't care less about the free trade arguments being made on both sides. The vote was about immigration more than all the other issues combined.

The people of England and Wales voted to give up their freedom of movement rights in order to prevent all EU nationals from having the right to live and work in UK. Scotland voted to allow EU nationals to work here and to protect their own rights to enter and exit the other EU states as they please.


I see three reasons why someone would oppose Independence as it's currently stands:

1. You want less immigrants in the Country

2. You are fiscally conservative, and don't want to see a significant increase in taxes on higher earners. (I may vote No for this reason fwiw)

3. You have an arbitrary emotional attachment to the Union/Monarchy/Orange walk.

Number 3 is the winner.

Hasn't said a lot about the UK wanting to break with its largest trading partner btw, yet he cannot emphasise enough how much Scotland stands to lose. He's neither consistent or honest imo.

Union is ****ed already, just a matter of time before the big breakup. Unionists lost their majority for first time ever in NI because their opponents are smarter than them, more progressive, less bigoted and can run rings around them.

It would be equally simplistic to argue that is was a mostly anti-establishment vote against the European bureaucracy imposing terms of austerity and privatisation. While not an idea peddled strongly (or at all) in the mainstream, to ignore this would be remiss. Regardless of the weight assigned to the arguments inside Leave, let's just say it's a mixed bag.
I agree that talking about free trade isn't a great way to engage people, for most this means lower wages, worse conditions and less secure employment.

It's not deceitful at all. My point had nothing to do with reasons people voted for Brexit it's to do with the SNPs reasoning for why we supposedly have to get back in the EU and all the noises they're making are about the single market. Care to address any of the other points in my original post as I note your points above completely ignore the financial implications?

You're out of your depth here. I voted remain btw.