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UK Politics Thread UK Politics Thread

02-28-2016 , 04:40 AM
Also, interested to see how trident plays a role in this whole debate.

Im pretty anti trident, but if we were to leave the EU it seems alot smarter to get it from a safety point of view even if it further blights our deficit
02-28-2016 , 05:14 AM
The one thing the UK economy cant handle is higher interest rates. Higher interest rates will take a massive wrecking ball to the UK economy.

If we leave the EU and get dollar parity, then (much) higher interest rates are almost a certainty due to the resultant inflation in dollar traded commodities and imports in general.
02-28-2016 , 06:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
The one thing the UK economy cant handle is higher interest rates. Higher interest rates will take a massive wrecking ball to the UK economy.

If we leave the EU and get dollar parity, then (much) higher interest rates are almost a certainty due to the resultant inflation in dollar traded commodities and imports in general.
Whilst agreed it would be dire to have those interest rates, why would we go for dollar parity? Ive not read that but sounds interesting.

Re what we can handle, weve got mad exposure to financial services and property markets. Disruption there will be seen across the economy.

Given how most recessions happen without the majority of people being able to predict them i go in for the people who analyse risk and exposure.
02-28-2016 , 06:18 AM
Dollar parity is a predicted consequence of leaving.

But yea, the sensitivity of the UK economy to interest rates is extreme.
02-28-2016 , 07:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor Zeus
Also, interested to see how trident plays a role in this whole debate.

Im pretty anti trident, but if we were to leave the EU it seems alot smarter to get it from a safety point of view even if it further blights our deficit
Britain would still be in NATO and covered by the American nuclear umbrella in the event we both leave the EU and scrap trident. I wouldn't worry.
02-28-2016 , 08:56 AM
Just watched Question Time. Agree it was rather meh.

However, one point did occur to me. The junior doctors debate was by far the most interesting, however there is still some major disagreement between both sides on the whole "more people die at weekends" argument.

The point in relation to the Brexit debate, is that if we can't even trust politicians, journalists, etc to represent empirical data based on historical records correctly, how on earth can we trust them to represent the Brexit arguments in some kind of factual light, given they are almost all based on hypothesised events?
02-28-2016 , 08:58 AM
We dont have to get our data from them.
02-28-2016 , 10:06 AM
Where would you suggest? I would personally still put politicians ahead of Guardian/Mail/Telegraph....
02-28-2016 , 10:33 AM
Google.
02-28-2016 , 11:52 AM
Using the source should help
02-28-2016 , 12:52 PM
Like most people I don't have the time or motivation to do this thoroughly, and even the sources releasing data are very likely to have some kind of agenda.

I think the general point is there will be little/no peer reviewed information to make a decision, which kinda sucks.
02-28-2016 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Like most people I don't have the time or motivation to do this thoroughly, and even the sources releasing data are very likely to have some kind of agenda.

I think the general point is there will be little/no peer reviewed information to make a decision, which kinda sucks.


There is probably a **** ton of peer reviewed information on the economic effects of immigration etc etc etc.

Also to lazy to do own research, will just take data from MPs, is simply horrible.

If you are that way inclined why even bother thinking or reflecting on politics except in the most shallow and cursory way?

Oh wait.

Last edited by O.A.F.K.1.1; 02-28-2016 at 02:39 PM.
02-28-2016 , 03:18 PM
lol ok. Most of the decisions we take in life are made with incomplete information.

I suspect like most people ITT, I'm interested enough in the outcome of Brexit to read the posts here, listen to The Today Programme and PM, and watch Question Time/Newsnight/PMQ's occasionally.

What I'm not prepared to do is spend hours searching for good quality information, and neither are you. If you are, feel free to post it here and enlighten us all.
02-28-2016 , 03:21 PM
Dont have to spend hours.

I would imagine most posters ITT spend time doing independent research.

If you read this forum its obvious lots of posters spend significant time reading around the subject, because its a politics forum, it self selects participants who you know are interested enough in politics not to just be passive consumers of lol medja.

Obviously this is not the case with you, which just begs the question, why the feck are you here?

Its like you want to have the most cursory water cooler, man in pub level of discussion and are surprised when anyone calls you out on that.
02-28-2016 , 03:28 PM
Raises. It raises the question.
02-28-2016 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vael
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Elrazor you must have missed these non MP data sources linked on the previous page (70 PPP)

Last edited by O.A.F.K.1.1; 02-28-2016 at 03:37 PM. Reason: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecoj.12181/abstract
02-28-2016 , 03:32 PM
what good quality information are you interested in?

i've already posted a paper that summarises the expected impact on key economic indicators under two negotiation scenarios. those results are based on trade models etc that appeared in peer reviewed journals.
02-28-2016 , 03:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor

I think the general point is there will be little/no peer reviewed information to make a decision, which kinda sucks.
Why does it suck if you confess to not wanting to spend the time finding it and reading it?

Sux, no good data,
Yes good data
Meh dont have time to find it or read it. Watch QT tho.

Lolrazer.
02-28-2016 , 05:02 PM
Actually I'm here because I want to improve my knowledge, and I don't think there is any shame in admitting that.

We can't all be geniuses like you who claim to know everything about everything....
02-28-2016 , 06:14 PM
Elrazor been reading Plato in the past week
02-28-2016 , 06:14 PM
In b4 'the leave campaign has all the momentum'
02-28-2016 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Husker
I think in any referendum of this sort, and we seen it in the independence referendum, is that those campaigning to leave can make all sorts of positive claims of a brave new world upon exit etc (many of them fanciful and some downright lies) whereas the campaign to stay is basically just saying vote for more of the same, which is kinda dull. It will also in a sense be a negative campaign imo as it will be highlighting the dangers of leaving, cost to the economy etc.
But also that election showed people see through empty fantasy wish casting. The smartest guy in the room is always the most trusted in something like this.
02-28-2016 , 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
In b4 'the leave campaign has all the momentum'
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/02/26...-campaign-has/
02-28-2016 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
Actually I'm here because I want to improve my knowledge, and I don't think there is any shame in admitting that.

We can't all be geniuses like you who claim to know everything about everything....
Lol weak sauce ranty personal attacks. Time of the month?

Just so you know, claiming there are good data sources online and else where and claiming to know everything, yea, not at all the same thing, lolrazor.

Yea, I know everything because I think there might be better sources of info than QT.

Lets be clear, you might claim to want to improve your knowledge, thats easy to say, but that in no way squares the circle of your contradictory posts:

1: Sux there are no peer review info
2: Cant be bothered to read peer reviewed info just watch QT.

Basically 1 is a completely disingenuous statement.

Hint, its bad to tell fibs if you are going to blow that fib just a few posts later.

Bottom line is that if you genuinely want to improve your knowledge you might actually have to put more effort in than you seem willing to commit.

Last edited by O.A.F.K.1.1; 02-28-2016 at 07:02 PM.
02-28-2016 , 10:12 PM
i must say i feel my knowledge increases exponentially by coming to this forum.

      
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