If Michael Howard's backing the Leave campaign it must be a bad idea.

Yeah, I thought this too. I think it's hard to run a solid defence when you've got a Tory minister who run the line "yeah the EU sucks but it's marginally better in than out" and Diane Abbot who is from the traditionally eurosceptic part of the Labour party up against 3 different kinds of eurosceptics.

Definitely agree with this. I watch Newsnight every other night of the week but I frequently question my decision on Thursday nights.

It is a terrible format of show to try to actually debate this out.

"we pay x billion to the eu every year and all we get is rules about how we can't mistreat prisoners let's get out" cue applause from the half of the audience selected to applaud that line to 'give balance'.

terrible debate. its also going to get incredibly boring focusing solely on the EU referendum. I understand its a massive issue but take 2 questions on it and some on other pressing matters. 45 mins in and all that was spoken about was the referendum.

we are in danger of the referendum taking all the focus and other issues not being addressed and barely reported on. there are more junior doctor strikes planned which got a few minutes max of debate time and also the ridiculous matter of David Cameron boasting of BAE sales to Saudi Arabia on the same day the EU voted on an EU wide ban on selling arms to them.

yeh I concur. **** knows how I couldn't work that out lol.

Yeah + factor in it was Diane Abbot aswell lol - I was surprised at her reaction when someone suggested she didn't sincerely want to stay in (Paraphrasing sort of, cannot remember the comment) but she sort of just pulled a face as though to agree.

Not necessarily dis agreeing but the time constraints and factors you cite apply to pretty much every question and debate on QT

I don't think it's good at that stuff in general, but a shallower story can be much more easily discussed in its format.

Getting six people with no expertise at all to discuss an issue with so depth never produces good output. They may as well discuss gravity waves as little expert knowledge they will have on the issue.

Instead of detailed discussion of assumptions in modelling they just parrot talking points and have shallow debates on related but much easier topics like immigration, which they still usually **** up given it becomes a purely hypothetical discussion.

you must have missed the episode with june sarpongs expert input

They should give Farage's German mrs a spin on QT. I might even watch that.

I haven't watched question time yet, but I did catch This Week last night and what became apparent was that it felt very easy for the Brexit's to make lots of *passionate* reasons for leaving, while the stayers just talk about the economy, which is kinda dull.

Also assuming there will be some TV debates, who are the stayers going to put up to debate Johnson, Farage or Gove? I don't think May or Osbourne are up to it, not least because they are unpopular with the general public but also I don't think they are good debaters, so that really just leaves Cameron as someone the public can identify with and can actually debate. I assume Alan Johnson will be involved, but he's not really impacting the debate at the moment either.

I think in any referendum of this sort, and we seen it in the independence referendum, is that those campaigning to leave can make all sorts of positive claims of a brave new world upon exit etc (many of them fanciful and some downright lies) whereas the campaign to stay is basically just saying vote for more of the same, which is kinda dull. It will also in a sense be a negative campaign imo as it will be highlighting the dangers of leaving, cost to the economy etc.

QT will get better - that was a pretty poor panel but it's very early days

The parallels with the Scottish referendum are obvious so I wonder if it's close will the EU leaders wobble and make some huge promise in the dying days.

The failure to make the vision case for Europe over many years is coming home to roost. I feel a bit bad blaming Clegg because at least he stepped up but his debates against Farage set the wrong tone.

I think it's easier to point out the flaws within the EU and our relationship with it, and to be fair the EU itself has to take the blame for some of this. Showing the positives is more difficult as many of the arguments forremaining are more complex.

Unlikely IMO. No huge alterations can be made to the status quo without treaty change, and that ain't happening. There is also the (actually fairly likely) prospect that the EU top brass don't care that much about keeping Britain in as they think it poses an obstacle to further integration.

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FWIW* I've got a feeling we might leave. I don't know why, I just think OUTERS are more likely to show up.


*Hint - absolutely nothing

That's true. Trouble is, like Scottish Independence all the arguments will be largely baloney because the problem isn't complexity but that no-one has any real handle on how it will work out either way.

All there really is whether people want to be part of Europe or want to be independent.

It's not quite that unlikely. One thing the EU is extremely good at is doing things quickly when it matters. We should pretty much ignore how difficult it is and just consider whether they would decide to act. Any treaty doesn't actually have to be ratified because we get another referendum at that point anyway - a clear promise of <blah> to be in a promised new treaty would be very similar to what the UK did with Scotland.

So it's just whether they decide to act. The EU has got a lot of problems and the G20 is already talking about a major shock. A lot of pressure could build between now and the referendum and I don't know how much pressure the EU can handle. That plus, I believe, a very strong desire by Brussels, Germany and many others that they really don't want the UK to leave make it a real possibility if it's looking close.

I think that's right. Family who've lived in the Czech Republic a long time are saying the general mood there is one of extreme pessimism about the future if the UK votes to leave.

Being a physically small island it's easy to forget we are the second biggest economy in the EU.

I just think it sets a terrible precedent for the EU to set, making further referendums in other EU countries more likely.

Which is one of the main reasons I'm in favour of exiting. The kind of reforms the EU needs will never happen without a seismic shift like UK leaving.

Germany will soon get pissed once all the economic migrants from Eastern Europe and Syrian refugees start heading there and reformation will be inevitable.

For me, we either commit to play a central role in Europe, or we leave. Cameron's deal is just the worst of both worlds.

Had a long discussion with friends over dinner last night, I've moved from in to undecided. Some of the out arguments are persuasive, or rather the in case seems based almost entirely on fear of uncertainty.

Fear that things here could become a lot worse is a pretty sound reason not to commit to something you're unsure of.

Based on some cursory reading, a "Brexit" (I hate that word) would be incredibly stupid. Like voting for Donald Trump stupid.

I can't believe that it's probably going to happen.

I wouldn't say probably. Betfair still have In ahead, but it could be close for the reasons mentioned recently itt.

HSBC predict sterling/dollar parity, growth half of the current prediction and inflation of 5% if UK exits the EU.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...hort-term-pain

I guess that would mean a significant number of house repossessions.

Meanwhile, the second paragraph said:

Its just a ludicrous risk in the short term everyone says it.

I think you only have to look to Scotlands model on how easy they would find it without the rest of the uk due to bouyant oil markets. Then pow oil gets decimated.

The diversity and inclusive model of the EU gives us so many outs and opportunities as markets fluctuate that we have a bit more protection.

Further to this for entrepeuners it seems, intuitively, to be better in the EU. Having a much bigger, no holds barred economy to trade with v a limited uk market allows for much quicker growth at the start of business.