Quote:
Originally Posted by dereds
Tories need about 290, Labour don't need that and won't get it. Given the SNP won't join the government benches a minority Labour government is most likely with SNP allowing them to get through the Queens Speech
I think the Tories need more than 290. The lib Dem line is trading at 25.5. As I've said before ITT, both parties need to have a better than expected night to form a two-party coalition.
Fwiw, the Tory line is trading at 285.5, so if both hit their line bang on, they'd be 9 short of an absolute majority, plus you can take a few off for Sinn Fein. A problem in picking up these 9 or so seats are that many of the Tory's best prospects are in the West Country, which, if they do win, they'll be picking up from the Lib Dems, therefore making them no closer to a coalition.
That being said, there would still be some extremely difficult negotiating grounds between the two, we shouldn't assume that just because they hit the magic number a coalition will instantly form. The Lib Dems will negotiate very hard if there is any chance of a Lib/Lab deal, and it could cross too many Tory red lines. I expect an EU referendum won't be too difficult to negotiate, but the Lib Dem education pledges may be a bit too far.