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04-22-2015 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
so that graph is saying that, assuming a similar turnout:

- ukip will get about 4 million votes, under/over line is about 4 seats
- greens will get about a million votes, under/over line is 1 seat
- so together they get about 5 million votes and 5 seats
- snp get about a quarter of that combined total and ten times the seats

first past the post ladies and gentlemen!
Given that the SNP only contest about 8% of the seats I don't think that's the greatest comparison to make. Even in a STV electoral system a party that contests fewer seats is likely to require fewer votes per seat.
04-22-2015 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LostOstrich
I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems formed a coalition with anyone other than the tories tbh. Tories are likely to win the most seats, and I doubt a repeat of the Lib/Con coalition would be as hard a sell to the Lib party members as many are making out.

I've lumped on at 6.8 though, so that's the main problem with it.
I noted above that I thought this was a pretty good price. Now that you're punted on it we can safely put it to bed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by madlondoner
At the moment the Tories are polling about 280 seats and lib dems about 25-30. Even if a Tory lib dem coalition did go through under these numbers, they wouldn't have the strength to implement hard line Tory policies. You have to imagine a lot of lib dem mps will be more resistant to Tory policies knowing all their mates lost their seats because of them before.

A lot of people voted for nick clegg and the Tories based on their manifesto and their policies. They didn't vote for them because they were their mates and they were doing them a favour. A lot of coalition policies were in complete contradiction to their manifesto.
Why do you assume they'll push hard line Tory policies? It seems far more logical that we'd get a watered down version of each parties ideology.

I also think the Con/Lib coalition will seem appealing as the lib dems will be easy to persuade to have a EU referendum.

I also think that after all of the small parties get ****ed over this election, electoral reform will be back on the cards before too long.
04-22-2015 , 07:02 PM
Because most Tory policies are quite hard line.
04-22-2015 , 07:09 PM
you can't have lived through Thatcher if you think Cameron has "hard line" policies
04-23-2015 , 03:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LostOstrich
you can't have lived through Thatcher if you think Cameron has "hard line" policies
I did and I do.

There's a difference but thinking that Cameron isn't as hard line as Thatcher only reflects how the Thatcher government managed to move the political spectrum to the right. Those industries are already privatised, the unions already weakened, the baseline in British politics is very different from that of the 80's.

We have the Conservatives extending the right to buy to housing association stock. In the 80's the right to buy scheme was partly populist partly undermining local government, this is just ideological, this is further reducing affordable housing stock without those reasons.

Now they are constrained somewhat by the LibDems and are losing votes to UKIP, their nature will be more clearly apparent should they win an election but Gove would have been a champion of the Thatcher years and there isn't the centrist element in the Tory party that was represented by Clarke and Heseltine.
04-23-2015 , 03:48 AM
^ One of the more depressing things in UK politics is the triumph of Thatcherism. Even the Labour party became Thatcherite.

The reason some see Cameron as a bit less extreme is because they themselves have accepted much of Thatcherism. From their new more right wing perspective Cameron seems closer.
04-23-2015 , 04:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlondoner
Because most Tory policies are quite hard line.
Well be that as it may, it would be quite hard to disagree that the lib dems have diluted them.
04-23-2015 , 04:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
Well be that as it may, it would be quite hard to disagree that the lib dems have diluted them.
A diluted form of a bad policy can lead to just as much harm sometimes more. Once you give ground on tuition fees for example it's almost impossible to regain.
04-23-2015 , 06:59 AM
so what do the interest payments look like on 90 billion ed?
04-23-2015 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chezlaw
A diluted form of a bad policy can lead to just as much harm sometimes more. Once you give ground on tuition fees for example it's almost impossible to regain.
But the party that lied twice on tuition fees was labour. First promising not to introduce them and then promising not to raise them. At least Lib Dems can argue they didn't win when they went against the manifesto promise.

Which end of the day proves how the UK tuition fee system is correct as it exists. It has backing from all three parties.

As someone paying 7500 right now for tuition who is in a degree that means I will actually have to repay it its obvious to me that shifting the burden onto students as it was implemented with a very progressive repayment model is the correct policy.
04-23-2015 , 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
But the party that lied twice on tuition fees was labour. First promising not to introduce them and then promising not to raise them. At least Lib Dems can argue they didn't win when they went against the manifesto promise.
I wasn't defending Labour at all but the lib dems have been hurt (correctly imo) by compromising in violation of such a clear specific commitment.

Quote:
Which end of the day proves how the UK tuition fee system is correct as it exists. It has backing from all three parties.

As someone paying 7500 right now for tuition who is in a degree that means I will actually have to repay it its obvious to me that shifting the burden onto students as it was implemented with a very progressive repayment model is the correct policy.
This is an example of the triumph of Thatcherism point. Some may argue that's a good thing.
04-23-2015 , 01:05 PM
9k for a degree is ridiculous imo but there's little point dwelling on it in this thread cause were never gonna agree.

How do people feel about the scaremongering from the Tories about a possible labour snp agreement? Do u think it is making headway with the public?
04-24-2015 , 03:45 PM
oh wow, we got two (2) flyers today, it's almost like i don't live in a tories are 1.01 on betfair seat
04-24-2015 , 05:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LostOstrich
I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems formed a coalition with anyone other than the tories tbh. Tories are likely to win the most seats, and I doubt a repeat of the Lib/Con coalition would be as hard a sell to the Lib party members as many are making out.

I've lumped on at 6.8 though, so that's the main problem with it.
Cleggo has said today that forming a coalition with the second biggest party would 'lack legitimacy'. Importantly, he has ruled out any LibLAB coalition that relies on SNP 'life support'. Feel that getting over the magic 326 may be hard otherwise. LO's bet looking a bit better, may lump on it.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-e...#axzz3YGUl6ROf
04-27-2015 , 04:22 AM
few points Labor Brought our economy to the brink of economic ruin, Tories took us back to been one of the strongest economies in the world.

What is going on in the uk is scary really really scary and the fact that people cannot see it is even scarier. the fact this seems to be almost world wide shows that all Jews in the world are living on borrowed time.

firstly we can see how ridicolous it is that people are looking at labor despite the history. I would go as far as to say that if it came out tomorrow that Ed Miliband was a pedophile (note I am not saying he is I would be gobsmacked if he was) the British people would still likely vote him in before Tories.

This liberal left wing agenda is pure brainwashing more irrational and hostile to criticism then even hard core religion.

the Anti semeticism in this movement is clear with outright boycotts of Israel and Israeli universitys. and the activism against Israel despite the fact they dont extend this Behaviour to any other regimes in the world.

the denial of history and the out right hatred I have recieved from the liberal movement without even spoken a word or said anything on first sight why because I am jewish. this brainwashed liberal anti semetic agenda is a repeat of what we have already seen.

the rush to get out before its to late is on.
04-27-2015 , 07:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeSilver
few points Labor Brought our economy to the brink of economic ruin, Tories took us back to been one of the strongest economies in the world.

What is going on in the uk is scary really really scary and the fact that people cannot see it is even scarier. the fact this seems to be almost world wide shows that all Jews in the world are living on borrowed time.

firstly we can see how ridicolous it is that people are looking at labor despite the history. I would go as far as to say that if it came out tomorrow that Ed Miliband was a pedophile (note I am not saying he is I would be gobsmacked if he was) the British people would still likely vote him in before Tories.

This liberal left wing agenda is pure brainwashing more irrational and hostile to criticism then even hard core religion.

the Anti semeticism in this movement is clear with outright boycotts of Israel and Israeli universitys. and the activism against Israel despite the fact they dont extend this Behaviour to any other regimes in the world.

the denial of history and the out right hatred I have recieved from the liberal movement without even spoken a word or said anything on first sight why because I am jewish. this brainwashed liberal anti semetic agenda is a repeat of what we have already seen.

the rush to get out before its to late is on.
Someone is certainly brainwashed.
04-27-2015 , 09:09 AM
The Boris vs milliband interview was pretty funny.

Considering Milliband's grandparents survived Auschwitch, I don't think he is part of an international anti- Jewish conspiracy.

The recession of 2008 led from worldwide Reagan/Thatcherite policies that whilst Labour could've taken action that would've lessened it's impact, there is no way that any Tory government would've done anything which would have stopped it.
04-27-2015 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeSilver
few points Labor Brought our economy to the brink of economic ruin, Tories took us back to been one of the strongest economies in the world.

What is going on in the uk is scary really really scary and the fact that people cannot see it is even scarier. the fact this seems to be almost world wide shows that all Jews in the world are living on borrowed time.

firstly we can see how ridicolous it is that people are looking at labor despite the history. I would go as far as to say that if it came out tomorrow that Ed Miliband was a pedophile (note I am not saying he is I would be gobsmacked if he was) the British people would still likely vote him in before Tories.

This liberal left wing agenda is pure brainwashing more irrational and hostile to criticism then even hard core religion.

the Anti semeticism in this movement is clear with outright boycotts of Israel and Israeli universitys. and the activism against Israel despite the fact they dont extend this Behaviour to any other regimes in the world.

the denial of history and the out right hatred I have recieved from the liberal movement without even spoken a word or said anything on first sight why because I am jewish. this brainwashed liberal anti semetic agenda is a repeat of what we have already seen.

the rush to get out before its to late is on.
some really pertinent points, very well put.

Spoiler:
but where was the request for bank details?
04-27-2015 , 10:08 AM
what the heck
04-27-2015 , 10:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LukeSilver
few points Labor Brought our economy to the brink of economic ruin, Tories took us back to been one of the strongest economies in the world.

What is going on in the uk is scary really really scary and the fact that people cannot see it is even scarier. the fact this seems to be almost world wide shows that all Jews in the world are living on borrowed time.

firstly we can see how ridicolous it is that people are looking at labor despite the history. I would go as far as to say that if it came out tomorrow that Ed Miliband was a pedophile (note I am not saying he is I would be gobsmacked if he was) the British people would still likely vote him in before Tories.

This liberal left wing agenda is pure brainwashing more irrational and hostile to criticism then even hard core religion.

the Anti semeticism in this movement is clear with outright boycotts of Israel and Israeli universitys. and the activism against Israel despite the fact they dont extend this Behaviour to any other regimes in the world.

the denial of history and the out right hatred I have recieved from the liberal movement without even spoken a word or said anything on first sight why because I am jewish. this brainwashed liberal anti semetic agenda is a repeat of what we have already seen.

the rush to get out before its to late is on.
some really pertinent points; well put.

Spoiler:
04-27-2015 , 10:26 AM
Wrt any LD/Tory coalition it is important to consider the make up of the LDs post election. There is no guarantee that Clegg will keep his seat (he's currently 1.5 on Betfair, and looks a solid lay at that price), and many of his biggest allies are pretty much locks to lose theirs. Further, the remaining rump MPs will be further left than the party currently is, many only holding their seats because they voted against many coalition policies.
04-27-2015 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlondoner
The Boris vs milliband interview was pretty funny.

Considering Milliband's grandparents survived Auschwitch, I don't think he is part of an international anti- Jewish conspiracy.

The recession of 2008 led from worldwide Reagan/Thatcherite policies that whilst Labour could've taken action that would've lessened it's impact, there is no way that any Tory government would've done anything which would have stopped it.
Tories wouldn't have borrowed massively during a boom including tens of billions in off the books debt through pfi. Labour failed by not preparing for an inevitable downturn, to the point they believed one would never even happen.

Its either gross negligence or gross incompetence and we are supposed to vote back in the people who were part of that?

Tories could have lessened the impact by not putting us in a situation that Keynesian stimulus was a terrible idea. We could have done what Germany did if we had a responsible government through the early 00s.
04-27-2015 , 01:55 PM
No evidence to show Tory borrowing would have been less to the degree that it would have any meaningful impact on finances post 2008, in their 2 manifesto's prior to 2008, their spending plans were not in any way meaningfully less than Labours.
04-27-2015 , 04:57 PM
Also labour had to spend to overcome 18 years of Tory underspending on hospitals and schools. Admittedly doing it via pfi than straight spending was a mistake but oh well too late now.
04-27-2015 , 07:15 PM
Those two posts back to back are kinda funny.

      
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