Why would it annoy me? I am fine with a highly structured pay system* that cannot be easily exploited by a minority of people.

Also I don't follow your childcare point. If a huge majority get paid more under the new deal how does it make being a doctor more expensive?

* in general, but especially in government jobs

Bumped for EU referendum now confirmed June 23rd.

Think I'm in France for a month and will miss all the fun.

Will be really interesting to see what Boris does. If he backs Cameron, he will almost certainly be doing so with the promise of a plumb cabinet job that will leave him in pole position for the leadership in 2020.

If he opposes Cameron and we opt to leave, he will almost certainly be in a position to mount a challenge to Cameron's leadership now, and probably win. That's a pretty big if though, and if the gamble fails he'll probably be marginalised for the remainder of this parliament, scuppering his leadership ambitions.

I think he wants to go for the out campaign, but if he's hedging his bets he'll back Cameron....

I think Boris just wants to me on the winning side. It's a slightly complicated position for him as some (maybe including him) think he might make the difference.

Some political advantage would be a bonus but as long as he's on the winning side he's going to be one of the biggest beast in the Tories and get plumb jobs. Only being Mayor has kept him from one.

Just had an awful thought of PM Johnson meeting President Trump. Two berserk blondes.

Counter it with the happy thought of JC and Bernie.

I can at least imagine them sitting around talking about the sixties bands they used to like, whereas the other two would be discussing how to screw the poor even more and which country to nuke first.

Cameron is expected to step down soon after either way. So getting a plumb cabinet job and losing the subsequent election is terrible strategy.

Boris will try and be on the winning side, but if that side isn't obvious being pro leave helps his future leadership chances most.

Interesting question as to which side is the best bet for Boris if it's a toss-up as to who wins. Probably pro-leave as long as it's fairly close.

I'd be very surprised (and a bit worried) if he doesn't back the stay in campaign.

How much do you think Boris moves the odds when he declares his position?

Sticking my finger up to the breeze, I'd say 1/3 to 2/5 stay.

There is no doubt he motivates a significant amount of people to vote out, but not enough IMO.

As things stand, I'm voting out and the only doubt I have is whether Cameron and Osbourne can hang on if they lose. I don't like the idea of the Conservative party lurching to the right if we leave, especially considering the lack of a credible opposition.

Seems like out at 9/4 seems a spot of value right now, if only to lay it off as the price inevitably moves in?

Yeah you'd have to think with Boris and Farage thumping their tubs for 4 months then the whole thing will take on the feel of the Scottish vote, where I think on election night it was pretty much a flip?

As in that one though, I think the silent majority will call this one and we stay in. Kinda thinking myself that when I actually get to the ballot box I'll blink and vote to stay.

Any guesses on what the turnout will be? I think there's gonna be a whole swathe of the electorate that don't have strong enough feelings either way to vote or will feel that the information given throughout the campaign isn't enough to make an informed decision, especially with regards to the impact of an exit for the economy.

IDS yet again confirms he's unfit to hold public office:

Staying in EU 'exposes UK to terror risk', says Iain Duncan Smith

Membership of EU (not invading ME countries) to blame for 7/7, I guess.

So Boris supports the Brexit.

Not very surprising given that George and Theresa are with Dave and, being part of the cabinet, in a stronger position to pursue Tory leadership than outgoing London mayor and mere MP Boris. Perfect outcome for him is probably a narrow IN victory.

Brexit odds now between 25% and 33%. Concerning imo

****

Yep, no 9/4 now - 2/1 best price to leave, with stay roughly 2/5

Odds dropping like a brick most places 15/8 to 7/5. Wouldn't be surprised to see tactical voting going on in Scotland to get 2nd Indy ref.

Seen turnout discussed on twitter, if its same or lower as GE than its going to be close. If the young vote than its over, but they don't. Also the 'Leave' people can't wait to get there vote out where as the reluctant 'Remain' people may not turnout as their just not as passionate about the subject.

Also on Boris, he's going to annoy a lot of people if he isn't that active as he suggests. He already stabbed Cameron in the back, if he's not gonna do any campaigning than the Tory grassroots won't elect him leader because he didn't campaign that hard to leave the EU.

I really don't give any credence to the idea that there are a load of pro-independence Scots who are going to defy what the SNP are advocating and tactically vote to leave.

Suits me (a pro-European) if they do, because the Scottish dog wagging the English tail in this fashion must bring about the end of the UK as we know it, allowing England, Wales (and N Ireland???) to join the EU either separately or together.

It's usually the case that when a big national decision is required and the choice is between the status quo and a large unknown change, people tend to go with the status quo, fear being the strongest human emotion.

It's not just about fear by the way. Humans will choose the status quo an eerily large amount of the time. Would recommend the book Nudge for further reading on this matter.

Status quo argument definitely should have an advantage or the 'Leave' side. But you only have to look in to the Greek 2015 referendum were they voted against the bailout deal (status quo) with it being perceived they would leave the Euro when its highly favored with in the country.

This is getting slightly off topic but I don't think the bailout offer was the status quo, there wasn't an option for the status quo in that referendum as either side would have required a huge change.

But you are right, the status quo is an advantage, but not unassailable.