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Trump Presidency Predictions Thread Trump Presidency Predictions Thread

11-12-2016 , 12:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
We're probably not. You're probably right. But for the first time in perhaps all of American history, there is at least now a nonzero chance that you are wrong.
The Civil War is a thing that happened though. There are no "yeah, but" lines that follow. It was a bloodbath. Fortunately, there aren't sectarian, geographic lines in 2016.



And, 1860



Those red areas in Eastern Tennessee and were Unionist strongholds during the war. The red areas in NC weren't, why? Well, mountains aren't really a thing in midwestern NC. The Confederates couldn't penetrate parts of Eastern Tennessee.

Why am I talking about any of this? It's much harder for civil wars to occur without geographic sectarian lines (afaik). I'd have to dig through the Correlates of War database on civil wars for... a long time. Urban vs Rural civil wars do exist, but as far as I understand they tend to be very asymmetric. A lot of this last paragraph could be wrong, I haven't studied it that much, and the last time I did at all was quite some time ago. Maybe there are actual intra-state conflict experts on 2p2 that can weigh in. Heh.
11-12-2016 , 12:46 AM
Non zero chance of a massive Koch funded primary challenge in 2020 if he decides to run again.
11-12-2016 , 12:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vixticator
The Civil War is a thing that happened though. There are no "yeah, but" lines that follow. It was a bloodbath. Fortunately, there aren't sectarian, geographic lines in 2016.



And, 1860



Those red areas in Eastern Tennessee and were Unionist strongholds during the war. The red areas in NC weren't, why? Well, mountains aren't really a thing in midwestern NC. The Confederates couldn't penetrate parts of Eastern Tennessee.

Why am I talking about any of this? It's much harder for civil wars to occur without geographic sectarian lines (afaik). I'd have to dig through the Correlates of War database on civil wars for... a long time. Urban vs Rural civil wars do exist, but as far as I understand they tend to be very asymmetric. A lot of this last paragraph could be wrong, I haven't studied it that much, and the last time I did at all was quite some time ago. Maybe there are actual intra-state conflict experts on 2p2 that can weigh in. Heh.
My comment wasn't responding to anything having to do with a civil war. I don't think there will be a civil war.

Edit: Although this is an interesting counterpoint to that: http://www.cracked.com/personal-expe...errifying.html
11-12-2016 , 12:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZMountainHiker
Do you post anything that isn't complete nonsense?
do you think republicans wouldn't obstruct a democrat president? or do you think trump is just a guy who would never tell the truth under any circumstances?
11-12-2016 , 12:53 AM
I know. I'm just saying the civil war happened. The chances of worse than that aren't nonzero, but, like, very not likely. Inter-state wars, the fall of the Republic, yeah, those would be very unfun.
11-12-2016 , 12:57 AM
prediction:



11-12-2016 , 01:35 AM
he cant read
Quote:
A handful of sources in and around the Trump transition team said there was no evidence that the president-elect had even reviewed any of the binders of policy and personnel proposals produced by the team. Trump’s only contact with the transition staff, the sources said, had come through Christie, the New Jersey governor and transition team chief who was demoted on Friday from transition team chairman to being one of several vice chairs.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...-rivals-231277
11-12-2016 , 02:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BreakYaNeck

It also isnt peaceful when you are literally blocking major highways preventing people from getting to work (happened very close to me last night on a road I travel weekly). That is negatively impacting peoples lives, that isnt peaceful
LOL, you are the most fragile, special snowflake of them all.
11-12-2016 , 02:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
11-12-2016 , 02:42 AM
lol
11-12-2016 , 02:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian
prediction:



A+
11-12-2016 , 04:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
My comment wasn't responding to anything having to do with a civil war. I don't think there will be a civil war.

Edit: Although this is an interesting counterpoint to that: http://www.cracked.com/personal-expe...errifying.html
wow that article
11-12-2016 , 04:55 AM
I get the feeling Pence is going to do a lot more than the average VP does.

Trump likely to defer a ton of the "boring" stuff about being President to him, which may be like 80% of it.
11-12-2016 , 05:08 AM
That's worse than Trump calling the shots.
11-12-2016 , 05:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
My comment wasn't responding to anything having to do with a civil war. I don't think there will be a civil war.

Edit: Although this is an interesting counterpoint to that: http://www.cracked.com/personal-expe...errifying.html
that's not a Counterpoint to what I said though. that is agreeing with what I said. that part about asymmetrical civil war, in which the body count doesn't stack up at nearly the same rate as the first American Civil War, but the conflict goes on for decades or centuries. that would be worse, to be sure, but those types of conditions are well in the future. like, you'd be a massive spikes in violent reprisals. not as in police shootings, as in roving gangs of bikers burning ethnic neighborhoods.
11-12-2016 , 06:55 AM
Why is it so bad for us to get along better with Russia? It seems like a lot of the left leaning posters already have trump derangement syndrome.
11-12-2016 , 07:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
Strength of the economy always lags well behind policies that are enacted. So in theory it should continue to improve even in the face of bad policies for a while.



That said if he does anything close to what he promised with regards to slapping 35 percent tariffs on imports we get instant worldwide depression. Anyone who thinks I'm wrong on that needs to google the Smoot/Hawley Tariff.

The stock market is largely discounting the possibility that he will enact dumb trade policies and anticipating a ton of fiscal stimilus. I hope the market is right but spent yesterday warning a couple of friends not get caught up in the market enthusiasm. Not that I know what is going to happen just as a general rule.
11-12-2016 , 07:27 AM
Because Russia is currently participating in the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of civilians and we think that's bad?
11-12-2016 , 08:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cotton Hill
I get the feeling Pence is going to do a lot more than the average VP does.

Trump likely to defer a ton of the "boring" stuff about being President to him, which may be like 80% of it.
this is my biggest fear
11-12-2016 , 08:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by florentinopeces
That's worse than Trump calling the shots.
qft
11-12-2016 , 08:16 AM
What can we expect from Pence?
11-12-2016 , 08:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules22
Why is it so bad for us to get along better with Russia? It seems like a lot of the left leaning posters already have trump derangement syndrome.
I definitely have this. I cannot fathom how anyone could consider Trump acceptable as a potential president. I don't get it.

In general, it is not bad for us to get along better with Russia. The worry is that Trump is beholden to Russia because no stable entity would lend him money. Also, it is hard to get along with someone acting counter to your interests, like trying to influence our elections or just plain behaving bad like in Ukraine and Georgia.
11-12-2016 , 08:27 AM
He's going to fail at keeping this promise to save their jobs
11-12-2016 , 08:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BABARtheELEPHANT
What can we expect from Pence?
A right of right Republican (not what this country needs -- adheres to views out of touch with the vast majority of Americans):

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/mem...e_pence/400315

http://billmoyers.com/story/need-kno...ad-rnc-speech/
11-12-2016 , 08:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
A right of right Republican (not what this country needs -- adheres to views out of touch with the vast majority of Americans):

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/mem...e_pence/400315

http://billmoyers.com/story/need-kno...ad-rnc-speech/
http://www.ontheissues.org/IN/Mike_Pence.htm

      
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