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Is the Trump Economy Good for Poker? Is the Trump Economy Good for Poker?

02-14-2018 , 03:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eyebooger
Still hoping for a Mason answer to my question of is all of this worth it, EVEN IF the economy goes gangbusters for the next [insert whatever period of time you like here].
Based on the OP, I guess he's fine with it all even if the economy goes nowhere. He can correct me if that's not accurate.
02-14-2018 , 03:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd
That 10 years “rebuttal” exceeds all my expectations. Mason, if we were to email all those same economists and changed 5 years to 10 years, would you wager on, let’s say, 1/3 of them changing their minds and going from a no to a yes? Not even a majority
Imo the guy who said "That's a Laffer!" meant that five years was just too short to tell.
02-14-2018 , 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
Did the Bush tax cuts, which were promised to pay for themselves in this manner, pay for themselves after 10 years?
Stating They Did Pay For Themselves More or Less

Stating They Did Not Pay For Themselves More or Less
02-14-2018 , 06:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by will1530 View Post
Pwn I would agree with you if it mattered. You could cite 100 peer reviewed journal articles about the true nature of the curve and Trump slappies will just quote the heritage foundation. **** playing with these people.
Peer reviewed journal articles about economics are quite a bit different in value than peer reviewed articles by say physicists, chemists, bioligists, and mathematicians. Furthermore I am pretty sure there are peer reviewed journal articles in economics that support the idea of lower taxes being a boost to government revenues are out there.
02-14-2018 , 06:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
FWIW - I post this all the time, but reading this is when the lightbulb really went on for me to explain the modern Republican voter. Anything good Republicans do, they like. Anything bad - well Democrats do it to.

I grew up with a similar dynamic trying to argue with my friends that, no actually the US is more free than Soviet Russia. The sneering contempt at my naïveté for saying such a thing is the exact same. Both sides are just as bad and you are a simpleton for believing otherwise. It's a very very seductive narrative.

https://hanshowe.org/2017/02/04/trum...se-cargo-cult/



It's all just a game to them. Of course they argue in bad faith. They know which side of the culture war they identify with, and which party claims to be on their side. That is the only thing that matters. The rest is just trying to convince others to join their side. Issues mean nothing. Facts mean nothing. There is no cargo, and probably never was.
Totally disagree with the bolded.
02-14-2018 , 06:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
Peer reviewed journal articles about economics are quite a bit different in value than peer reviewed articles by say physicists, chemists, bioligists, and mathematicians. Furthermore I am pretty sure there are peer reviewed journal articles in economics that support the idea of lower taxes being a boost to government revenues are out there.
Probably. But they're not backed by empirical findings.
02-14-2018 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
Totally disagree with the bolded.
Name an issue you disagree with the Republican party on.
02-14-2018 , 11:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heh
Probably. But they're not backed by empirical findings.
I mean, if the work wasn't supported by empirical findings then it wouldn't be "peer-reviewed", or I guess maybe that term would just be pretty meaningless, at least within economic academia.

Friedman is a nobel laureate and the chicago school of econ is legitimate. How the theory is applied is one thing, but it's absolutely a valid theoretical approach to economics.
02-14-2018 , 11:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperUberBob
The Republican Party is the most dangerous cult in the world.
fyp
02-14-2018 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth
And the Trump advisors are talking about ten years, not five.

MM
If these tax cuts are going to pay for themselves in ten years, then it should be fairly easy for you to show us how the math for that works. Like, tell us the % increase in GDP that offsets the ~$1.5T in lost revenue on the tenth year.
02-14-2018 , 01:42 PM
I'm willing to concede that Trump has been good for poker, but he has been terrible for Crazy Eights. Bit of a push imo.
02-14-2018 , 02:08 PM
02-14-2018 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DudeImBetter
I mean, if the work wasn't supported by empirical findings then it wouldn't be "peer-reviewed", or I guess maybe that term would just be pretty meaningless, at least within economic academia.
This is actually not true, especially in economics; the amount of purely theoretical work is relatively high. Here's such a (rather infamous) paper on this very topic:

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/h...micScoring.pdf

Quote:
This paper has examined the issue of dynamic scoring using the textbook neoclassical growth model and some generalizations of it. Our goal has been to provide theoretical guidance for economists interested in estimating the revenue effects of tax changes. The simple formulas we have derived permit back-of-the-envelope calculations that illustrate the degree to which tax cuts are self-financing.
They are napkin theorizing how tax cuts pay for themselves and then leaving all of the empirical work for others. That's standard because mostly there are theorists and there are empiricists, and their training and skills are different. But here's where things go awry:

Quote:
At this point, we should acknowledge that the existence and magnitude of these externalities are both speculative and controversial. Our analysis suggests that measuring their magnitude is crucial for the task of dynamic scoring.
Quote:
Not surprisingly, the results of this exercise depend on a number of key parameters. Because the values of some of these parameters are open to debate, reasonable people can disagree about the magnitude of the feedback effects.
This is the entire setup for modern anarcho-libertarian-whateverism types:

(A) Here are some equations that just make too much darned sense.
(B) The actual effects are speculative and will be highly-sensitive to some key empirical findings.
(C) Welp, looks like reasonable people can disagree on those findings.

Except, they overwhelmingly don't disagree at all. The final step after ignoring observed reality is to return to (A) and claim victory, because there's really no other way to square that circle.
02-14-2018 , 06:53 PM
Lawnmower Man just killing it ITT
02-14-2018 , 07:35 PM
Yeah Lawnmower Man doing work. One of the many, many annoying things about ACists/libertarians is how often they namecheck economics or economics 101, but like, you get to elasticity in econ 101. Free market economics academic representation is boosted by literal payola to get colleges to employ right wingers in economics but even with that the mainstream economics position on government spending or tax revenue or environmental regulation is to the left of like, the median Democrat.
02-14-2018 , 08:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Name an issue you disagree with the Republican party on.
Name a few issues and tell me what the Republicam position is. Pretty sure I can find Republicans who disagree with the Republican position that you declare it to be. I'm one person and even if I didn't care about what the Republican Party official position is on anything that doesn't prove a thing, DUCY?

Last edited by adios; 02-14-2018 at 08:25 PM.
02-14-2018 , 08:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lawnmower Man
This is actually not true, especially in economics; the amount of purely theoretical work is relatively high. Here's such a (rather infamous) paper on this very topic:

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/h...micScoring.pdf



They are napkin theorizing how tax cuts pay for themselves and then leaving all of the empirical work for others. That's standard because mostly there are theorists and there are empiricists, and their training and skills are different. But here's where things go awry:





This is the entire setup for modern anarcho-libertarian-whateverism types:

(A) Here are some equations that just make too much darned sense.
(B) The actual effects are speculative and will be highly-sensitive to some key empirical findings.
(C) Welp, looks like reasonable people can disagree on those findings.

Except, they overwhelmingly don't disagree at all. The final step after ignoring observed reality is to return to (A) and claim victory, because there's really no other way to square that circle.

Which economists have the most reliable models? I wants to know what is going to happen to the economy in the next couple of years. Thanks.
02-14-2018 , 08:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
Name a few issues and tell me what the Republicam position is. Pretty sure I can find Republicans who disagree with the Republican position that you declare it to be. I'm one person and even if I didn't care about what the Republican Party official position is on anything that doesn't prove a thing, DUCY?
I say this over and over and they just never learn.

When you dodge a question like this, everyone knows what your real answer is.
02-14-2018 , 08:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
Name a few issues and tell me what the Republicam position is. Pretty sure I can find Republicans who disagree with the Republican position that you declare it to be. I'm one person and even if I didn't care about what the Republican Party official position is on anything that doesn't prove a thing, DUCY?
Many Republicans believe comparing Mexicans to cockroaches isn't racist. Your thoughts?
02-14-2018 , 10:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adios
Name a few issues and tell me what the Republicam position is. Pretty sure I can find Republicans who disagree with the Republican position that you declare it to be. I'm one person and even if I didn't care about what the Republican Party official position is on anything that doesn't prove a thing, DUCY?
I've never seen you go against them once on any issue on this forum. Seems like you can always be counted on to be bog-standard inline with whatever FoxNews talking points of the day.
02-14-2018 , 10:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
I've never seen you go against them once on any issue on this forum. Seems like you can always be counted on to be bog-standard inline with whatever FoxNews talking points of the day.
What views do you share with Republicans?
02-14-2018 , 10:17 PM
Suzzer is absolutely for public union reform and more restrictions on what you can purchase with food assistance. Don’t play gotcha games with people who know more than you.
02-14-2018 , 10:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Praetor1an
What views do you share with Republicans?
Pretty sure Suzzer wants fire or at least tar and feather all the teachers.
02-14-2018 , 10:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Praetor1an
What views do you share with Republicans?
Modern republicans, or back when Republicans were sane?

In the 70s I might have been a Republican.

Nowadays it's a few things. I am on board with charter schools. I have some problems with public sector unions. I think food stamps could be administered better. I don't agree with straight handouts. I really don't agree with auto-signing people up for stuff like welfare. I think consumer and personal injury lawsuits are a bit out of hand in this country.

That's about it. It's not my fault the modern republican party is bat**** insane.

I am also able to call democrats out on stuff like being in the pockets of big pharma, big banks, etc - as do a ****-ton of the liberals on this forum. When was the last time a Republican on this forum not named Grizy called out Republicans for blatant hypocrisy? Mason can't even say Adelson's name. It's all straight cognitive dissonance.

Democrats are far from perfect, and liberals can be very tribal. But both sides are not equal and opposite right now - not by a long shot. Not one conservative I know, even sober moderates, can admit to themselves that voter ID laws have nothing to do with preventing voter fraud. It's freaky to watch them go into mental contortions when presented with overwhelming evidence.

This is what a cult looks like:

02-14-2018 , 10:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jbrochu
Pretty sure Suzzer wants fire or at least tar and feather all the teachers.
I love the teachers. I think they're heroes and have said that many times. I'm not nuts about my tax dollars paying for boob jobs. I'm really not nuts about my tax dollars paying for sheriffs making $400k/year for life by goosing overtime in their last year.

Having said that - I'm almost to the point where I'm like **** it - maybe public sector unions need to be allowed to abuse the system to save us all from a Trumpian hellscape.

      
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