Quote:
Originally Posted by GermanGuy
I wasn't referring to socailists or anything of that sort. Just that logically gerrymandering should lead to more moderate Republicans as they will have closer margins of victory in their districts and need to appeal to moderates to realize their potential advantage. Democrats on the other hand, as the party suffering the gerrymandering would be able to nominate anyone they want which means the base could decide who to elect to congress without moderates. Therefores Democrates should be more extreme (on an American scale).
The opposite seems to happen however. The only explanation that has been offered is that the base is more motivated in primaries. I understand that, but shouldn't that hurt the Republicans in those gerrymandered districts?
I may have the whole concept of gerrymandering wrong, but I am not sure, so if anyone could enlighten me, I would appreciate that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by spanktehbadwookie
Gerrymandering is designed to give your party the best chance to win, not to make it close.
You might be missing GermanGuy's point, and it's a good one.
First of all, there are two kinds of gerrymandering. One is to make more safe seats
for both major parties so that Congressional reps don't have to worry about reelection. We're not talking about that kind; we're talking about partisan gerrymandering.
Suppose in a two-party system partisan gerrymandering works to the advantage of one party, A, vis a vis the other, B. If B has more popular votes than A, gerrymandering can only work if A wins its districts by a much smaller average margin than B wins its districts. In a vacuum, winning closer races should require moving closer to the center.
But I have a few related thoughts on why that's not happening:
- Gerrymandering is built on a core of really staunch voters, so the fact that they're losing swing votes might not immediately undermine the gerrymander. But in the long term, it probably does undermine it.
- Present-day Republicans just plain don't respond to traditional political incentives.
- Because relatively few people vote in off year elections (such as 2010), Republicans have to this point been insulated from the electoral consequences of their actions. They don't realize that failing to move to the center will eventually hurt them in close, gerrymandered districts.
But to this point -- as I understand it, if party A is winning more close races because of the gerrymander, then a small swing of public opinion toward party B should produce a greater than normal swing of seats toward party B. No one talks about this, but it seems like this could well happen over the next couple of election cycles, as Republicans get hoist with their own petard. In particular,
senior citizens are turning against the GOP, and they're the highly dutiful voters who do go to the polls in off years such as 2010 or 2014.