Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
Boehner can "win" on the shutdown (and later the debt ceiling) by passing it with Democrats, but the question is can he talk his caucus into it so he keeps the speakership
Fly:
According to the lead off commentary by Chris Matthews on tonight's "Hardball" broadcast, President Obama has drawn a "red line in the sand" on a Government shutdown. I'm paraphrasing a bit, but President Obama has apparently decided if the Republicans want the political equivalent of a showdown at the OK Corral - and are determined to force a Government shutdown to try to force a defunding of Obamacare - then the President will let them have their wish. Taking past history into consideration, Obama and his top political advisors have concluded that the last time Republicans tried this high risk gambit, they wound up regretting it. (Newt Gingrich certainly wound up regretting the shutdown.)
John Boehner, for his part, is in a real pickle - a Catch-22 type dilemma. If he caves to Obama (or is perceived as caving to Obama), he probably loses his Speakership. On the other hand, if he caves to the nut cases in his own party and allows a Government shutdown - and President Obama does not cave so Republicans can claim victory and vindication - he also (probably) loses his Speakership. If Speaker Boehner reaches the conclusion that he loses either way, he may just let the Tea Party nuts have their way ...
The interesting thing here is a number of the more strident Republicans (like my own Congressman) believe Obama will cave. They look at his granting of exemptions on the ACA and the extension of various implementation deadlines as signs of weakness. They have convinced themselves that if they push the President to the wall, he'll back down. (In poker this is the classic situation where both players think they have the nuts and all the chips go in. One of them is going to wind up a big loser.)
I don't think there's any way in hell President Obama is going to agree to any kind of "budget deal" that emasculates his signature legislative accomplishment. If President Obama sacrifices the Affordable Care Act just to get a budget deal, he instantly enrages every Democrat who voted for (and fought for) passage of the act. He instantly becomes the Richard Nixon of the Democratic Party. I just don't think President Obama will do that merely to get a budget deal with the Republicans. His "drawing a line in the sand" today may have been a negotiating ploy, but he may also have been sending a message to the GOP: "You want a war, you'll get a war."
If I weren't such a librul, I might feel sorry for John Boehner. Regardless of how this plays out, Boehner has few outs. I don't see a way for Boehner to come out of this a big winner. In fact, if it all goes to hell and the radical element within the GOP forces a Government shutdown, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boehner making one of his dramatic (tearful) speeches on the House floor announcing his resignation as Speaker. He'll give the gavel to Eric Cantor (figuratively saying) "So you've wanted this job all along. Here, you can have it!" Now that would be dramatic. (I think I'm getting a little carried away.)
Last edited by Alan C. Lawhon; 08-27-2013 at 10:02 PM.
Reason: Minor edit.