did you look at clinton's tax plan and compare it to trump's? on stuff like marginal tax rates and inheritance tax hers do much more for the poor and middle class. hers is pretty progressive. his is the exact opposite.

This is pretty on the money.

It's much more about perception though. How many 2012 Obama/2016 Trump voters even looked at her website?

OK, but this feels pretty squishy leftist stuff now. And I'm with you, to an extent. But the data about the economic depravity of Trump voters is pretty mixed. In a lot of ways, many (not all) were doing well.

To be glib, you seem to be doing what I described earlier: well, sure, they have the outward appearance of simple haters, but really they are exploited and subconsciously angry about it. They're really rebelling against the elites, no matter how much they fret about the future of America for white children. What they're really anxious about is economic stagnation, what they tell you and what the data says be damned.

I'll repeat it's a just-so-story. It's convenient for leftists since it builds into a bunch of Sanders type narratives about what the problems and prescriptions are from here. And it helps us live nicely with the white world and not spend our time hectoring 75% of white America about how they transgress over desirable democratic norms. And it solves a problem for the right-winger types to pile on about all the liberals who were mean to them and don't appreciate the hard-scrabble life of white guys in America, who must suffer from the indignities of PC culture. It ticks a bunch of convenient boxes for some elements of the left, the right, and people anywhere from a little to very exasperated being asked to put aside their white guy sensibilities. So here we are. I remain skeptical it's the best empirical explanation.

Globalization has massively benefited consumers in first world countries aka everybody who lives there. Every American nominally benefits by having iPhones and shoes and shirts made with labor that costs 15 cents an hour.

This comes at the cost of the jobs of some people, but it's a net positive for developed countries.

Following the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments of the Constitution. You don't get to pick and choose when to follow due process. Convict them of a crime, then take away their Second Amendment rights.

Exit polls have Hillary winning by 10 points among people who said the economy was their number one issue. Trump won bigly with people who said immigration or terrorism was most important.

So, yeah, I'm pretty skeptical that economic populism was at the core of all this. Trump's hardcore supporters have always been hateful racist idiots, and they were likely just going along for the ride with the economic stuff. If I'm being kind "dey terk er jerbs" is kind of combining both, so maybe that's it.

That said, I do think he may have added a significant number beyond his base with economic populism. That's certainly possible, even if doesn't explain his core support.

I'm not sure if either party has much of a natural advantage in presidential elections. Seems like they are mostly personality contests at this point.

Could be. Pretty heavy burden to find someone that is competent and "entertaining." Presidents become such a big part of out lives like they are a favorite TV show character.

The bright side of this is that it should be abundantly clear to the DNC that rolling out an establishment candidate in the next election cycle is clearly not a recipe for success in this political climate.

Also agree with this. We wouldn't be having this whole discussion re: Trump's side -- racial anxiety vs. economic populism -- if Hillary had gotten as many votes as expected. It's interesting but maybe missing the main issue.

I'd have to look at the numbers harder but it seems to me Trump only mildly overperformed while Hillary massively underperformed. This was more about her than him.

Isn't that just the obvious, she isn't as likeable to large parts of the modern democratic base? I think there is always a kneejerk desire to overreact to losing, but I'm not sure trump winning the EC and losing(?) the popular vote tells us anything we didn't know before the election: being a race baiting buffoon is not disqualifying for ~45% of the electorate.

You will be singing a different tune when everything goes up 40% so Joe Schmo in Wisconsin can have a good job with no skills.

Yes it's all about ethical standards. Which is why Trump's scam university, stiffing contractors, compulsive lying and pussy grabbing all got a collective shrug from the Rust Belt anger bears - who apparently now hold this country by the balls until enough Boomers die off.

Could be wrong but I don't think the final exit polls were off by much. The early exit polls were the ones that were terribad.

Even if they're off somewhat there's no way they're off by that much. Clinton definitely won among people who had the economy as the top issue and Trump definitely won among people who said terrorism or immigration.

But this political climate might not be the climate in 2020.

I guarantee if Dems roll out a Mark Cuban, suddenly his complete lack of political experience is a super huge deal, and trump has like four whole years of experience!

The grocery checkout machine asked if I wanted to donate to veterans. I usually skip those or donate $1, but this time I donated the max amount. The clerk (who was black and looked as bummed/anxious as me) said "thank you for your donation". I said "might as well give it all away since the world is going to end". We both had a cathartic laugh. Gallows humor helps.

The people that oppose minimum wage increases to $12-$15/hr use the same argument. It is probably the correct point for both scenarios.

I argue with my family to the degree I can. I call out the racists on chiefsplanet all day, and on the political mailing list I was on which I finally dropped. We're at least doing something by engaging on here.

So you are saying there are no underlying social economic determinants to two massive no way business as usual voting results.

Trump is actually president.

A bunch of simple haters has metamorphosed into social existence from? and now there is not much we can do about it becuase simple hater gonna simple hater?

All the time in this forum, well educated standard liberal guy who no way voted Trump can be found calling our baby boomers. Its a common occurance.

Why? Because BBs got a massively better deal than we did or at least that is the perception and If SLG who is probably on above average $$$$ can express and perceive some angst about pie share not living up to previous generations pie share, then I think its pretty moot to point out that some of the Trump voters looked like they were doing alright.

I would be shocked if we don't implement the Paul Ryan Medicare gutting.

While this might be true overall. The swing votes that counted were basically the rust belt Obama voters who switched to Trump, or just stayed home because they were so turned off by Hillary. I would imagine among that population the economy is the #1 issue.

Cross-posted from the gameday thread, seems like it belongs here anyway.

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There's no hard data at the end of this thinkpiece so soon after the election to confirm its electoral implications, but we know that D turnout was down. And it explains exactly why Clinton was the wrong choice to turn out rural whites.

https://medium.com/@Brocktoon/lexing...42e#.1edvdi24e

Hint: It's not about safe spaces.


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She lost almost every county outside the big cities. Just like the competitive rust belt primaries. She was not their candidate.

Its almost like history was not chock full of examples of economic problems creating racism and racial tension and fears about immigration and johny foreigner, which fears about terrorism are merely a modulation of.

Its obviously hard to modulate how big those problems are, given I am looking at this through the lens of two economies.

Obviously things have improved since 2008, but a lot of that improvement has been highly concentrated. Where I live in the UK there has been a massive fall in the working conditions and wages of many middle class peers, mostly because much of the employment here is Public Sector.

They still have jobs, but the conditions and prospects within that job are demonstrably worse than prior to 2008.

Austerity ftw.