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The Tragic Death of the Democratic Party The Tragic Death of the Democratic Party

11-09-2016 , 04:16 PM
Perhaps the other critique I would levy at that guy's tweet series is this: he's asking white people to get white Trump voters to think about other people in the voting booth.

That's really, really, really hard! Tons of people, I'd guess most of them, go into the voting booth and cast votes that are in their self interest. That may not be their specific intention, i.e. they may vote for something that they both think is altruistically right and happens to align with their self interest, but it's still what winds up happening for most people. I think most people who voted for Trump cast that vote thinking they will benefit when he makes America great again.

How on earth do we tell those people "hey, could you do us a favor and think less about yourselves - sorry, yes, we know, your anger in the first place is because you think the elites in society passed you over for others - and think more about others and the problems they face the next time you vote?"

Like, the more I reason this out the more impossible it feels. Having serious conversations with Trump voters about race is never, ever going to result in them being like "oh yeah wow I made some mistakes with my logic there".
11-09-2016 , 04:22 PM
Bernie managed to talk to some of these people and the liberals called him a racist and a sexist for it.

Falcon, maybe if the field of democrats included Biden or Warren, but there was an absolutely generic democrat in the race for like 2 minutes.
11-09-2016 , 04:23 PM
Maybe Obama covered the weakness of Democratic party. It did well only when he was on the top of the ticket and pretty darn poorly when he is not. I would have wagered a ton of money that their is no way the Democrats wouldn't retain the WH with Obama's approval rating in thru mid 50s which seems to support this argument.
11-09-2016 , 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
well named, bobman, OAFK11:

Good posts, but implicit in all of this (and only with slight pushback from huehue) is the notion that what Trump really won on was "economic populism: take back Washington from the Billionaire class (i.e anti-Citizen's united and etc), tax the wealthy, rein in the banks, expand government services..." and the election results were a commentary on neoliberal capitalism.

I'd propose, but not strongly yet -- that this is projection.

Feel like we have some snarky *******s, myself included, trying to tell a bit of a simpler story here: these people are simply hateful idiots. I realize in the end how deeply unsatisfying simple explanations can be. But they're also unflattering to a large extent of our neighbors, our family, our churches, our communities. Especially if you're white, you're undoubtedly surrounded by tons of Trump voters and I have no doubt we've all struggled how to process the fact these people exist and we love them and we have to work and live with them and stuff and so we want to dismiss the simple explanation because it makes our lives easier in a lot of ways. That there's some opaque worries about their jobs and their money and not that we're surrounded by tons of wretched, miserable haters feels better. And you can point to the snarky simple explanation to make some political points about elitism and put yourself on the other side of it, and that feels good. So you get the right-sympathizer pundit class aided by populist leftists like Michael Moore types saying, oh typical liberals, just race-baiting, not seeing the of real picture.

And then we get some decent people like the three of you seeming to implicitly acknowledge that's true. But why?

We're going to have to look at the data over the next week or two or whatever while this settles but I remain skeptical economic populism is a dispositive explanation fueling the global populist rancor. Why not simply global population displacements? Sure, it's part and parcel of the neoliberal capitalism project to tolerate that if not welcome it. But it seems FAR AND AWAY the principle motivating factor here. I liked bobman's allusion to Trump's Visigothic takeover. Seems apt. Because I look and look for the uprising against global capital and I don't see it. What I see is the hoi polloi welcoming a ****ing billionaire real estate baron as emperor, promising mostly an incredibly business/elite friendly culture with some vague allusions to trade as tribute for the host population. Wither the genuine economic populist outrage? When you talk to Trump voters, they don't know ANYTHING about ANY of that. Not a clue. They knew about the wall and the Muslim immigration ban and the transgressive social un-PC stuff and that was it.

So I'll reitreat that I think you gents might be projecting your concerns with the neoliberal capitalist project onto the masses. Maybe I talk to the wrong Trump voters but they don't know **** about anything except for cultural anxieties about Christmas greetings and pressing 2 for Spanish. I'll need some data to point to their motivating factors being economic. But I'm glib enough I might dismiss it anyway so don't waste too much time here.
I want to be clear about what I'm saying. I'm not in any way downplaying the role of racial anxiety to Trump support. I do think, though, that Trump's big political innovation was using open racism to outflank his primary opponents and to paper over his total lack of credentials. It's better to be Mitt Romney than Trump in the general.

The question that really needs answering is how HRC underperformed Obama by 7 million votes though. Wednesday morning quarterbacking aside, she ran a solid campaign with a completely justified "steady hand at the tiller" theme and she had the advantage of everything actually going pretty well, unemployment falling, GDP growing, etc. And you can't plausibly point to racism to explain why a black man got votes that she couldn't. My suggestion is that the story has to do with no one being willing to believe that things are going fine any more. They just know in their bones that everything's going to hell, so the only person they will vote for is the firebrand populist or the man on horseback or the dazzling orator. Anyone but a consensus-building technocratic caretaker.
11-09-2016 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul D
Sorry, I didn't spend a few years of my life in an Economic programs to listen to dudes who read Chomsky, listen to bunk economics from politicians, and don't understand economics. Call me arrogant if you will, but I'm sick of the anti-intellectualism of both sides.
Back to touting the econ bachelors.
11-09-2016 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
I want to be clear about what I'm saying. I'm not in any way downplaying the role of racial anxiety to Trump support. I do think, though, that Trump's big political innovation was using open racism to outflank his primary opponents and to paper over his total lack of credentials. It's better to be Mitt Romney than Trump in the general.

The question that really needs answering is how HRC underperformed Obama by 7 million votes though. Wednesday morning quarterbacking aside, she ran a solid campaign with a completely justified "steady hand at the tiller" theme and she had the advantage of everything actually going pretty well, unemployment falling, GDP growing, etc. And you can't plausibly point to racism to explain why a black man got votes that she couldn't. My suggestion is that the story has to do with no one being willing to believe that things are going fine any more. They just know in their bones that everything's going to hell, so the only person they will vote for is the firebrand populist or the man on horseback or the dazzling orator. Anyone but a consensus-building technocratic caretaker.
I think this answers the question. They didn't make nearly a big enough deal out of the progress we've made over the last 8 years, both economic and social.

Like how many times did you hear HRC tout the unemployment rate, or adding jobs for 78 months straight, or coming closer to a balanced budget?

They ran on a campaign of "I'm not Trump". When people both want Trump and don't want you, that doesn't work.
11-09-2016 , 04:31 PM
Quote:
We're going to have to look at the data over the next week or two or whatever while this settles but I remain skeptical economic populism is a dispositive explanation fueling the global populist rancor. Why not simply global population displacements? Sure, it's part and parcel of the neoliberal capitalism project to tolerate that if not welcome it. But it seems FAR AND AWAY the principle motivating factor here. I liked bobman's allusion to Trump's Visigothic takeover. Seems apt. Because I look and look for the uprising against global capital and I don't see it. What I see is the hoi polloi welcoming a ****ing billionaire real estate baron as emperor, promising mostly an incredibly business/elite friendly culture with some vague allusions to trade as tribute for the host population. Wither the genuine economic populist outrage? When you talk to Trump voters, they don't know ANYTHING about ANY of that. Not a clue. They knew about the wall and the Muslim immigration ban and the transgressive social un-PC stuff and that was it.

The election of Trump does not have to be mostly about economic populist outrage to have been caused by wider economic social conditions though.

As I said before average Trump voter is going to have little actual objective awareness of the actual social and economic conditions that create them.

They will have a sense that things are not fair, and then Trump/Fox or whoever provides the narratives to explain that sense.

Exploited classes being made to vote against their own self interests by having their exploitation mis represented is centre stage in political history. Its a common occurance.

The elites are in a spot similar to that just after WW2, where it was the left who provided the compromise of social welfare (at least in Europe) that would allow the pie machine to go on making bigger and bigger pies, in complete stability, safe. Pie masters were happy, pie makers were happy. The pie machine could keep on trucking right up to the shocks of the 70s, where the story gets a bit murky.

I think we are broadly in a similar spot now, to remove the fertiliser from the social determinants that make Trump/Brexit possible, there needs to be a bit of pie loving spread around. A good old dose of very palatable feel good factor, you never had it so good. Would not take much loss of pie by the Elites. Pie makes people forget their silly angsts and hatreds. Pie, hmmmmm, Pie.

Time for a New Deal.

Or we could just skip straight to WW3.

Last edited by O.A.F.K.1.1; 11-09-2016 at 04:47 PM.
11-09-2016 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
You do realize that your economic beliefs have been proven to be a failure by now? This vote doesn't show that to you? What about in a few years when social security and Medicare are bankrupt? Or when the middle class gets hollowed out even more? What about when USTs start to collapse and the world stops buying our debt?

At what point will you accept the fact that your ideas about economics are complete and total bunk, no matter how much time or money you wasted forming them?
You still have yet to refute any of my economic beliefs.
11-09-2016 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
Perhaps the other critique I would levy at that guy's tweet series is this: he's asking white people to get white Trump voters to think about other people in the voting booth.

That's really, really, really hard! Tons of people, I'd guess most of them, go into the voting booth and cast votes that are in their self interest. That may not be their specific intention, i.e. they may vote for something that they both think is altruistically right and happens to align with their self interest, but it's still what winds up happening for most people. I think most people who voted for Trump cast that vote thinking they will benefit when he makes America great again.

How on earth do we tell those people "hey, could you do us a favor and think less about yourselves - sorry, yes, we know, your anger in the first place is because you think the elites in society passed you over for others - and think more about others and the problems they face the next time you vote?"

Like, the more I reason this out the more impossible it feels. Having serious conversations with Trump voters about race is never, ever going to result in them being like "oh yeah wow I made some mistakes with my logic there".
Wait a minute...... I thought the consensus was that poor, uneducated whites didn't vote their interest. Now you're telling me that they did?
11-09-2016 , 04:42 PM
Another Twitter thread (coworker posted it), posting this as a link instead of embedding because it's easier to read in Twitter reply view: https://twitter.com/absurdistwords/s...01496698671104

Kinda got a TNC "we know what we are, that we walk like we are not long for this world" vibe, but fights back against it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dstock
Wait a minute...... I thought the consensus was that poor, uneducated whites didn't vote their interest. Now you're telling me that they did?
They think they did.
11-09-2016 , 04:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dstock
Wait a minute...... I thought the consensus was that poor, uneducated whites didn't vote their interest. Now you're telling me that they did?
They thought they voted for their own economic interests.

What they actually voted for was a billionaire with the power of an entrenched political party that want to enact tax reforms that decrease taxes on rich people while doing nothing to help poor or working class people.

Jobs are lost to automation and globalization, not immigrants. Automation and globalization aren't going anywhere anytime soon, and Donald Trump will do nothing to stop them.
11-09-2016 , 04:48 PM
I was listening to Santorum on PA. He said Obamacare hurt the Ds given the 50 percent premium increases and the party was only offering more government benefits when the people wanted better jobs.
11-09-2016 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141
They thought they voted for their own economic interests.

What they actually voted for was a billionaire with the power of an entrenched political party that want to enact tax reforms that decrease taxes on rich people while doing nothing to help poor or working class people.

Jobs are lost to automation and globalization, not immigrants. Automation and globalization aren't going anywhere anytime soon, and Donald Trump will do nothing to stop them.
Then the American people will just throw another Molotov cocktail at Washington. Donald Trump was the living, breathing Molotov cocktail thrown at the media and the "establishment".

Once you see that. It all makes sense.

Look how close Bernie came to overthrowing Hillary in the primary.

Trump just won his primary. That's it.

You do release that the Congresscriters love their jobs more than anything right? If the GOP has start giving out populist style bennies they will.
11-09-2016 , 05:00 PM
That might be true @ goofy and zimmer. But the rich are getting richer while the rest get poorer. Will that change under President Trump? Maybe, but probably not. But we know damn well it would not have under Clinton. Sanders? Possibly.
11-09-2016 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dstock
That might be true @ goofy and zimmer. But the rich are getting richer while the rest get poorer. Will that change under President Trump? Maybe, but probably not. But we know damn well it would not have under Clinton. Sanders? Possibly.
Trump: lol no
Clinton: also lol no for structural factors, but things like free college that she borrowed from Sanders would certainly have helped level out inequality for future generations
Sanders: possibly
11-09-2016 , 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
The rest of your post is right, but this is wrong. What do you think immigrants come here for? And in case you were confused about the results of Brexit and last night, globalization is very much coming to an end.
A. Immigrants come here to fill jobs that nobody else will do. They work for less than minimum wage because that's still a better life than what they had in their home country. The Ford and Toyota factories in Kentucky and Tennessee and Michigan aren't staffed with illegal immigrants.

B. Globalization is here to stay. The forces of the US Government or the UK Government are not enough to reverse the will of the global business community. Technology and innovation have brought the world closer together and the world will continue to do business with each other more than ever, regardless of what individual governments want.
11-09-2016 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkubus
It's an enormous win for the tax cuts you love so much. If he gets any sort of meaningful infrastructure bill the deficits will be so large that our balance of payments won't shift, so he probably won't "win" on trade. Hopefully everyone remembers this in four years.
What do deficits matter at this point? We are already past the point of no return. When interest rates return to any sort of normal we are beyond screwed. The only way out now is through printing and inflation.
11-09-2016 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
Trump: lol no
Clinton: also lol no for structural factors, but things like free college that she borrowed from Sanders would certainly have helped level out inequality for future generations
Sanders: possibly
Sanders: lol no, for the same reason Feckless Trump wasn't even president elect for 12 hours before one of his signature campaign pledges was shot down by McConnell.
11-09-2016 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141
A. Immigrants come here to fill jobs that nobody else will do. They work for less than minimum wage because that's still a better life than what they had in their home country. The Ford and Toyota factories in Kentucky and Tennessee and Michigan aren't staffed with illegal immigrants.

B. Globalization is here to stay. The forces of the US Government or the UK Government are not enough to reverse the will of the global business community. Technology and innovation have brought the world closer together and the world will continue to do business with each other more than ever, regardless of what individual governments want.
This. No way globalism ever ends. More jobs are in danger of automation and technology than are through some sweat shop in China or some dude swimming the Rio Grande.
11-09-2016 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle
The rest of your post is right, but this is wrong. What do you think immigrants come here for? And in case you were confused about the results of Brexit and last night, globalization is very much coming to an end.
Nice. Of course globalization and automation reduces jobs, but it is a flat out lie that there are no "economic immigrants". How much of each is to blame is debatable, but to simply dismiss one is dishonest.
11-09-2016 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul D
...

I shouted down my old man for supporting Trump ...
Is it possible this is why he didn't listen to you?
11-09-2016 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141
I think this answers the question. They didn't make nearly a big enough deal out of the progress we've made over the last 8 years, both economic and social.

Like how many times did you hear HRC tout the unemployment rate, or adding jobs for 78 months straight, or coming closer to a balanced budget?

They ran on a campaign of "I'm not Trump". When people both want Trump and don't want you, that doesn't work.
I agree partially with this. But more than just tout the progress in the last 8 years, she should have addressed the people who felt left out of the progress and at least allay some of the fears that they were feeling.
11-09-2016 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerodox
Is it possible this is why he didn't listen to you?
I gave him a chance to speak. But I'm done being polite with people who buy into propaganda instead of y'know checking the BLS site.
11-09-2016 , 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141
A. Immigrants come here to fill jobs that nobody else will do. They work for less than minimum wage because that's still a better life than what they had in their home country. The Ford and Toyota factories in Kentucky and Tennessee and Michigan aren't staffed with illegal immigrants.

B. Globalization is here to stay. The forces of the US Government or the UK Government are not enough to reverse the will of the global business community. Technology and innovation have brought the world closer together and the world will continue to do business with each other more than ever, regardless of what individual governments want.
a) Would these jobs "that immigrants do that nobody else will" disappear if not for them? Or would people/companies/corporations pay more to have these jobs done? Could it possibly help wage inflation?

B) Quite possible true
11-09-2016 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GBP04
it's been addressed but the reason she couldn't beat Trump (in the sense that Trump was very beatable) is that people didn't like her. People viewed the scandals, real or trumped up or imaginary, and her as a package. they didn't like that she decided it was her time to win. hard to blame her for wanting to be president. but at some point, there's a ton of baggage, and people didn't like that a person with that kind of baggage would ignore that fact and push for the presidency. she was the polar opposite of Obama in that effect
OK. But this is sort of like my response to well named about the right-wing media not really being separable from the core white nationalist project. The "baggage" that Clinton was perceived to have was not separable from the Deplorable Mindset. Her "baggage" was presented to and internalized through that filter.

Like, put diffrently yet still. We want to say well, Trump voters, they liked Trump for terrible reasons, all of them suggestive of super retrograde worldviews. Oh, but they hated Clinton for all these justifiable good reasons, her 'baggage' and her 'scandalous nature.'

What I'm saying: you probe just a little bit as to what the **** people even mean when they reference it and you just get the deplorable (((Soros))) Huma Benghazi traitor email globalist agenda Breitbart comment stuff.

"Her baggage" as some nebulous concept was just what deplorable swamp fever types horse traded in. Even the way you describe it is a complete euphemism meant to obscure natural human descriptions of things.

      
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