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The Tragic Death of the Democratic Party The Tragic Death of the Democratic Party

11-18-2016 , 08:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl
Everyone keeps saying this, but the people who support Ellison. What's funny is the identity politics people are saying he shouldn't be elected because he's black and Muslim and there should be some mid-western white religious Christian guy in charge instead to reach out to the Rust Belt

But Ellison is from a majority white district in the Rust Belt. The guy has support from a lot of white people because he's economically progressive and focused on the working and middle class, not because he's black or Muslim.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-demo...own-1479427359
I'm full expecting Trump's "National Security" people to be leaking rumors of this guy's "terrorist" ties to RT news. I half expect Paul Ryan will be labeled an Islamic terrorist before the end of 2017.
11-18-2016 , 08:07 PM
Grunching but:

How long into Trumps term before we get "The Tragic Death of the American Republic?" And then:
"The Tragic Death of Western Civilization?"
11-18-2016 , 08:14 PM
We've almost certainly got to depend on the military to bail us out of the "end of civilization" scenario. I would almost be relieved to see the Joint Chiefs appear on TV and tell us they've taken control of the country.
11-18-2016 , 08:16 PM
Pretty sure a military dictatorship in USA leaves end of western civilisation very much on the cards.
11-18-2016 , 08:16 PM
You guys do know how median household income is calculated right?

If your conclusion is that a family of 4 making 60k is doing better than the average family in the US, you are way way off the mark.
11-18-2016 , 08:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stinkubus
We've almost certainly got to depend on the military to bail us out of the "end of civilization" scenario. I would almost be relieved to see the Joint Chiefs appear on TV and tell us they've taken control of the country.
Coups are deathknells
11-18-2016 , 08:21 PM
Meh, I'm half worried that Putin is going to sneak us while Trump's half assed fox news cabinet is running the country.
11-18-2016 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperUberBob
Actually it's the exact approach that most of society in general takes because it's easier to generalize about a group then to spend time to develop a well-researched, nuanced opinion. It isn't a partisan problem. It's a people problem.
Actually its an exact and precise principle of being a liberal, you don't generalise by social/ethnic group.

Not saying they we dont do that, but that is the ideal.
11-18-2016 , 08:22 PM
People around me don't seem worried at all, though. Live in rural PA in a HEAVILY Trump county, FWIW.
11-18-2016 , 08:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl
Coups are deathknells
Given the victory the white supremacist movement has obviously scored, and how antithetical it is to the very fabric of modern US society, I'd say a "coup" of sorts has already taken place. That's why there's protestors. NO ONE protests a Mittens election.
11-18-2016 , 08:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
idk how long you've been following politics but my whole adult lifetime it's been a long story of Dems abandoning traditional liberalism and gradually shifting more and more to looking like a Republican-Lite party. If we've reached the point where we hang a "straight white men only" sign on the door of the clubhouse and focus our efforts on coddling the delicate feelings of Fox News viewers, I think it's just time to quit and say the ballgame is over.
Not been following very long.

I wasn't saying to run a moderate white, fwiw. I was thinking a young Bernie Jr type, minus explicitly calling himself a socialist.

I don't think the ball game is over if I'm right. Like I'm not even saying that Ellison couldn't win. I'm saying I think identity politics makes him less likely to win than the aforementioned hypothetical white Bernie Jr. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't care. I would say run the most qualified person and shift the Overton window if that's Ellison. And if you can make the case that he would have a bigger margin in the electoral college than anyone else, then run with him for sure. But like, I don't know if you've heard, Steve Bannon's gonna be working right next to the oval office. Our country is going to be run by Mr. Brexit and Mr. Breitbart. So I can't summon up too much high mindedness when it comes to 2020. If Dems can win while still promoting tolerance and empathy and not actively lying to voters (really tough since their opponent won't have any scruples about that), then I wouldn't take it as anything other than a straight victory.

And unless your thinking is completely alien to mine, and you believe e.g. that Democrats can win in 2020 with a transgender candidate, then you have to acknowledge my point to a certain degree. That spectrum of viability does exist, and it's a question of where the "hard-to-win" line is drawn. Is it as far as transgendered candidate? Or is it closer to Muslim (all other things equal)?
11-18-2016 , 08:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Since the 70s the left has conceded ground again and again to the right on the economic case.

Post war till the 70s, tax and spend, growth in welfare state, redistribution of wealth and unionisation of workforce was the centre.

Then after the 70s the right regrouped and has been on a rampage, the left barely if at all stands by any of the above, it has conceded the economic argument, leaving identity politics its only crusade left to fight.

Thing is though, the technocrats of the right, were ready to concede on identity politics. Any cultural legacies remaining from gender, ethnicity and sexual orientation are irrelevant to the logics of their system, neo liberalism, they are irrelevant in regards consumption, if anything they are vectors for consumption. No one wants negative cultural overhang getting in the way of $.

For example, David Cameron ex Tory Prime Minister cites his proudest achievement in office to be the legalisation of Gay Marriage.

The rub is that the right has cultural hang ups that can not be simply dissolved by capitalism. Authority, religion (which overlays sexual orientation) and race.

Their was a huge dissonance between right base and right political representatives over culture.

Its this dissonance that created the alt-right and ultimately made Trump possible.

Now the left has to consider its postion.

Soul crushed.

Lost the economic case.
Lost the culture war.

Lost.

Those two loses are not unrelated, they are indeed intimately linked.

If you give up the economic argument, if you accept and indeed internalise the arguments of the right as can be seen in Bobmans "no way can we tax the rich", almost elevating them to transcendental truths, then the game is being played deep in your half all the time, pretty much on the ten yard line, the opposing team hardly has to push much to score a game winning touchdown and take home the whole enchilada.

The centre has been shifted so far to the right, that you only have to move the arrow a little off centre to arrive at crazy town. Which is were we are now, absolute ****ing crazy town.

This is why the left has to come up with a new economic mythos that rejects neoliberalism, which is itself just a mythos, don't let people tell you its a transcendental truth.

Not because Trump voter is economically anxious, but because the whole framing of the debate has to be moved way,way,way,way back from where it is now, the game has to be move to the middle of the pitch, away from the ten yard line.

The only way to do this is with an economic and social argument that rejects or at least challenges the compromises of the last 40 years.

The left has spent the last 40 years letting the right carry the ball up the field.

There needs to be a renaissance.
11-18-2016 , 08:56 PM
They thought Kennedy might not win because he was Catholic.
11-18-2016 , 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AllTheCheese
Not been following very long.

I wasn't saying to run a moderate white, fwiw. I was thinking a young Bernie Jr type, minus explicitly calling himself a socialist.

I don't think the ball game is over if I'm right. Like I'm not even saying that Ellison couldn't win. I'm saying I think identity politics makes him less likely to win than the aforementioned hypothetical white Bernie Jr. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't care. I would say run the most qualified person and shift the Overton window if that's Ellison. And if you can make the case that he would have a bigger margin in the electoral college than anyone else, then run with him for sure. But like, I don't know if you've heard, Steve Bannon's gonna be working right next to the oval office. Our country is going to be run by Mr. Brexit and Mr. Breitbart. So I can't summon up too much high mindedness when it comes to 2020. If Dems can win while still promoting tolerance and empathy and not actively lying to voters (really tough since their opponent won't have any scruples about that), then I wouldn't take it as anything other than a straight victory.

And unless your thinking is completely alien to mine, and you believe e.g. that Democrats can win in 2020 with a transgender candidate, then you have to acknowledge my point to a certain degree. That spectrum of viability does exist, and it's a question of where the "hard-to-win" line is drawn. Is it as far as transgendered candidate? Or is it closer to Muslim (all other things equal)?

Ellison would never be elected President.

Come on. There is no scenario on this Earth he would win a General Election simply because he is Muslim.
11-18-2016 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
Ellison would never be elected President.

Come on. There is no scenario on this Earth he would win a General Election simply because he is Muslim.
Seems to be some backing for this.

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact...d-rather-elec/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155285/at...andidates.aspx

Atheists continuing to get the shaft.
11-18-2016 , 09:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jman220
Grunching but:

How long into Trumps term before we get "The Tragic Death of the American Republic?" And then:
"The Tragic Death of Western Civilization?"
Around the time the internet is turned off and there's no one left to speak for you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Since the 70s the left has conceded ground again and again to the right on the economic case.

Post war till the 70s, tax and spend, growth in welfare state, redistribution of wealth and unionisation of workforce was the centre.

Then after the 70s the right regrouped and has been on a rampage, the left barely if at all stands by any of the above, it has conceded the economic argument, leaving identity politics its only crusade left to fight.

Thing is though, the technocrats of the right, were ready to concede on identity politics. Any cultural legacies remaining from gender, ethnicity and sexual orientation are irrelevant to the logics of their system, neo liberalism, they are irrelevant in regards consumption, if anything they are vectors for consumption. No one wants negative cultural overhang getting in the way of $.

For example, David Cameron ex Tory Prime Minister cites his proudest achievement in office to be the legalisation of Gay Marriage.

The rub is that the right has cultural hang ups that can not be simply dissolved by capitalism. Authority, religion (which overlays sexual orientation) and race.

Their was a huge dissonance between right base and right political representatives over culture.

Its this dissonance that created the alt-right and ultimately made Trump possible.

Now the left has to consider its postion.

Soul crushed.

Lost the economic case.
Lost the culture war.

Lost.

Those two loses are not unrelated, they are indeed intimately linked.

If you give up the economic argument, if you accept and indeed internalise the arguments of the right as can be seen in Bobmans "no way can we tax the rich", almost elevating them to transcendental truths, then the game is being played deep in your half all the time, pretty much on the ten yard line, the opposing team hardly has to push much to score a game winning touchdown and take home the whole enchilada.

The centre has been shifted so far to the right, that you only have to move the arrow a little off centre to arrive at crazy town. Which is were we are now, absolute ****ing crazy town.

This is why the left has to come up with a new economic mythos that rejects neoliberalism, which is itself just a mythos, don't let people tell you its a transcendental truth.

Not because Trump voter is economically anxious, but because the whole framing of the debate has to be moved way,way,way,way back from where it is now, the game has to be move to the middle of the pitch, away from the ten yard line.

The only way to do this is with an economic and social argument that rejects or at least challenges the compromises of the last 40 years.

The left has spent the last 40 years letting the right carry the ball up the field.

There needs to be a renaissance.
Is Thunder On The Right by Alan Crawford still worth reading?
11-18-2016 , 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
Ellison would never be elected President.

Come on. There is no scenario on this Earth he would win a General Election simply because he is Muslim.
I don't think putting your dead certain predictions in bold is going to increase their accuracy.
11-18-2016 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
I don't think putting your dead certain predictions in bold is going to increase their accuracy.
Are you really going to throw rocks at people for this given your recent track record on political predictions?
11-18-2016 , 11:00 PM
Link to my predictions?
11-18-2016 , 11:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
I'm not signing up for amoeba's take on this, but regarding things like this:



Seems like people are looking for This One Big Reason Everyone Voted Trump. And sure, that might be the racism or whatever, we already knew a lot of this country is made up of deplorables and/or people who would just vote straight GOP because they hate liberals.

But like, it only takes 5% (or less) of Trump voters to swing this election, and maybe that 5% doesn't show up in the chart above because they're just a small part of the whole?
Fault my terrible delivery then, not the tweeter's presentation. He goes for anti-This One Big Reason by the time it all gets fleshed out, but with a thread of etho-nationalism running through everything.
11-18-2016 , 11:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amoeba
Not the impression I got from his headline. Nor is it the impression I get when people kept quoting it and saying how it's proof that Hilary didn't have a favorability problem.

In any case, chart 5 in that electionado article is just the worst. I hope we can at least agree on that.
As a favor to me, try to push past that. There's a ton of stuff.
11-18-2016 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson
...

3. Also, it turns out that all the polling outlets are completely wrong for some reason. Kind of a pisser to just figure this out now, but apparently the whole industry is broken.

...
I'm holding strong to the hypothesis that the gargantuan voter suppression has a ton to do with this.
11-19-2016 , 12:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zikzak
Link to my predictions?
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=173
11-19-2016 , 12:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
I thought you meant that zikzak predicted that Trump would lose.
11-19-2016 , 12:18 AM
I am very happy with my results in that game. I beat suzzer!

      
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