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The Tragic Death of the Democratic Party The Tragic Death of the Democratic Party

11-16-2016 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by raradevils
The unemployment rate wasn't the cause. Maybe people were willing to give the other party a try when the fears of the market collapse loomed...
Okay, fair. Let's look at the evidence. Dow in November 2008:



Dow since then:



Sorry, I reject your thesis.
11-16-2016 , 01:21 PM
Many dems in the midwest are fed up with the entire process. because of a multitude of reasons. like political correctness, bad trade deals, a uncharsmatic presidential candidate on a national scale, and no real plan to make things better. Many midwestern dems didn't vote Trump they just didn't vote at all.
11-16-2016 , 01:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
One of the mild risks to the future of the Democratic Party, and it is minor, is separating the wheat from the chaff from the Bernie movement going forward. There's a lot of good, positive energy there and Democrats are going to need to leverage it.

But like some portion of the new ersatz Democratic twitter strategists on the internet toting around #2016LessonsLearned are just unreformed Ron Paul voters that found their way to Bernie. Now they're the sharper ones, because admittedly tons of the Ron Paul movement decamped for Trump. You probably know where to find them on the Ron Paul --> Bernie --> "well I've got some advice you now" types on this forum, for instance. These people are simply the pied pipers of liberalism. I suppose a credit to them is most of them don't really purport to be liberals at all. So they're just everyday pied pipers.
Perhaps those 5-10% non-partisan voters are the ones that need to be convinced in order to swing elections??

The whole, they are fake-liberals therefore we shouldn't worry about listening to them or winning them over logic is pretty interesting.
11-16-2016 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
Okay, fair. Let's look at the evidence. Dow in November 2008:



Dow since then:



Sorry, I reject your thesis.
So was the rise in unemployment the reason? No it had more to do with the market collapse, I wrongly posted looming.
11-16-2016 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
Another very good reason to keep bringing up the fact that Hillary won the popular vote by over a million votes: people keep saying Hillary "failed to connect with voters." She absolutely connected with voters. In fact, she connected with 1 to 2 million more voters than Donald Trump did.
She failed to connect with the voters in the states she needed to win. MI, WI, FL, NC, and OH mainly.
11-16-2016 , 06:20 PM
Clinton currently ahead in the popular vote by 1,200,000
11-16-2016 , 06:27 PM
11-16-2016 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
Clinton currently ahead in the popular vote by 1,200,000
Why is that important? If popular vote won the election both candidates would of had completely different strategies.
11-16-2016 , 07:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thin_slicing
Why is that important? If popular vote won the election both candidates would of had completely different strategies.
It's important because Clinton and therefore Democratic ideas are more popular than Trump and Republican ideas.
11-16-2016 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
It's important because Clinton and therefore Democratic ideas are more popular than Trump and Republican ideas.

That argument falls apart quickly when you look at the Senate, House, and state government.
11-16-2016 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
That argument falls apart quickly when you look at the Senate, House, and state government.
That's a fair point. How about this. The popular vote on this election will always and forever remind us that the stupid ass electoral college ended up delivering us this orange monster. If nothing else, it should be repeated ad nauseum infinitum for the sole purpose of reminding people on both sides we do away with that ridiculous montrosity.
11-16-2016 , 07:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
It's important because Clinton and therefore Democratic ideas are more popular than Trump and Republican ideas.
You are missing the point of what I am saying. If popular vote was the deciding factor in a presidential election the campaign strategy would be completely different.

Therefore the amount of votes each candidate would get would be different.

I'm not saying that means Trump would of won the popular vote, he may still of lost, but your logic does not hold up.
11-16-2016 , 07:15 PM
Source: https://www.thenation.com/article/hi...still-growing/
Quote:
 Hillary Clinton’s Popular-Vote Victory Is Unprecedented—and Still Growing
 Her margin is now bigger than the winning margins for John Kennedy and Richard Nixon.

Hillary Clinton now leads the national popular vote for president by roughly one million votes, and her victory margin is expanding rapidly. That margin could easily double before the end of an arduous process of counting ballots, reviewing results, and reconciling numbers for an official total.

But one thing is certain: Clinton’s win is unprecedented in the modern history of American presidential politics. And the numbers should focus attention on the democratic dysfunction that has been exposed.

When a candidate who wins the popular vote does not take office, when a loser is instead installed in the White House, that is an issue. And it raises questions that must be addressed.
11-16-2016 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
That's a fair point. How about this. The popular vote on this election will always and forever remind us that the stupid ass electoral college ended up delivering us this orange monster. If nothing else, it should be repeated ad nauseum infinitum for the sole purpose of reminding people on both sides we do away with that ridiculous montrosity.

The system does favor small states. New Hampshire might be the most powerful state in the union given their primary position and swing state status.
11-16-2016 , 07:16 PM
The Democratic Party is near death.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...after-tuesday/

Results are still trickling in, but it looks like Republicans will still control an all-time high 69 of 99 state legislative chambers. They'll hold at least 33 governorships, tying a 94-year-old record.

That means that come 2017, they'll have total control of government in at least 25 states, and partial control in 20 states. According to population calculations by the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform, that translates to roughly 80 percent of the population living in a state either all or partially controlled by Republicans.





11-16-2016 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thin_slicing
You are missing the point of what I am saying. If popular vote was the deciding factor in a presidential election the campaign strategy would be completely different.

Therefore the amount of votes each candidate would get would be different.

I'm not saying that means Trump would of won the popular vote, he may still of lost, but your logic does not hold up.
Trump's thought is the bolded: that'd he'd have spent time campaigning in CA, NY, and the like in an attempt to increase total votes, when under the electoral system he completely disregarded these states.

The right has taken this and run with it as if it's confirmed fact that he'd have won the popular vote via this method by doing this. This is obviously silly; for starters, spending a total of 15 or 20 hours in these states over the course of three or four appearances wouldn't have changed a couple of million votes, which is what he's going to end up losing by. Also, if he could've done this under a different system, then so could've she, in addition to hitting up big cities in guaranteed-R states like GA/TX/MO/IN that she'd otherwise ignore.
11-16-2016 , 07:17 PM
Nationwide primaries, ldo. Get the also rans out of this **** from the beginning.
11-16-2016 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
According to population calculations by the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform, that translates to roughly 80 percent of the population living in a state either all or partially controlled by Republicans.
What percent of the population lives in a state either all or partially controlled by Democrats? Sounds like it's a lot more than 20.
11-16-2016 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by einbert
That's a fair point. How about this. The popular vote on this election will always and forever remind us that the stupid ass electoral college ended up delivering us this orange monster. If nothing else, it should be repeated ad nauseum infinitum for the sole purpose of reminding people on both sides we do away with that ridiculous montrosity.
You may as well as scream bloody murder that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

That part of the Constitution will never be amended.
11-16-2016 , 07:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by awval999
You may as well as scream bloody murder that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

That part of the Constitution will never be amended.
The interstate popular vote compact could eventually be a thing, though, which sidesteps the Constitution entirely.
11-16-2016 , 07:21 PM
I don't know if this has been posted before in this thread, but I thought this was a ver interesting read: https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-many...-working-class

Some quotes:

Quote:
At a deeper level, both parties need an economic program that can deliver middle-class jobs. Republicans have one: Unleash American business. Democrats? They remain obsessed with cultural issues. I fully understand why transgender bathrooms are important, but I also understand why progressives’ obsession with prioritizing cultural issues infuriates many Americans whose chief concerns are economic.
I heard this today basically word for word while talking to a Hispanic businessman who voted for Trump.

Quote:
Understand That Working Class Means Middle Class, Not Poor
“The thing that really gets me is that Democrats try to offer policies (paid sick leave! minimum wage!) that would help the working class,” a friend just wrote me. A few days’ paid leave ain’t gonna support a family. Neither is minimum wage. WWC men aren’t interested in working at McDonald’s for $15 per hour instead of $9.50. What they want is what my father-in-law had: steady, stable, full-time jobs that deliver a solid middle-class life to the 75% of Americans who don’t have a college degree. Trump promises that. I doubt he’ll deliver, but at least he understands what they need.
Another good point. Hillary was not going to win WI, PA, or OH by offering $15 minimum wage jobs.
11-16-2016 , 07:22 PM
Well, Harry Enten thinks Electoral College advantages are largely random and based on coalition building by each party. So the Democratic party could very well lose the popular vote in 2020 and we end up with President Michael Moore for eight years. Just sayin'.

Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ion-taught-me/
Harry Enten
Quote:
Republicans should be careful, though. History has shown that just because a majority of electoral votes are more Democratic or Republican than the nation as a whole in one election doesn’t mean they will be in the next election. Which party holds the Electoral College edge has mostly been random and dependent on the coalition each has built. Next time, the Democratic candidate may build a coalition that’s more optimally distributed to win the Electoral College. So there’s no blue wall, but there probably isn’t a red wall either.
11-16-2016 , 07:24 PM
Because President Moore was just able to get that populist message out and speak to the working class so effectively, goshdarnit.
11-16-2016 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maulaga58
Yeah but why do republicans keep winning everything from local to national elections because the liberal media and politicians like keep changing the parameters about what is correct to say and around minorities and what's offensive. With the Democratic politicians and media it's becoming like the boy who cried wolf when a serious and dangerous threat like Trump arises it falls on deaf ears. because dem's and msm credibility keeps eroding away.
They don't "keep" winning national elections; they just won one by the skin of their teeth after having lost 4 of the last 6. And as far as the Senate, House, Governor, and state legislature races, a huge part of the reason is that heavily Democratic groups like young people and minorities never show up during the midterms. Remember, the Senate is now 52-48 because of the '14 bloodbath; Dems actually gained two seats in '16.
11-16-2016 , 07:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb
Trump's thought is the bolded: that'd he'd have spent time campaigning in CA, NY, and the like in an attempt to increase total votes, when under the electoral system he completely disregarded these states.

The right has taken this and run with it as if it's confirmed fact that he'd have won the popular vote via this method by doing this. This is obviously silly; for starters, spending a total of 15 or 20 hours in these states over the course of three or four appearances wouldn't have changed a couple of million votes, which is what he's going to end up losing by. Also, if he could've done this under a different system, then so could've she, in addition to hitting up big cities in guaranteed-R states like GA/TX/MO/IN that she'd otherwise ignore.
There is no way to determine who would of won the popular vote. It is literally impossible. There are factors other than where they campaign including the amount of people who turn out to vote and who they vote for. I have several friends who voted for Gary Johnson but admitted if Hillary had a chance to win their state they would have voted for Trump.

I still think Hillary would win the popular vote just because of NY and CA alone but there is no way to tell.

All of this is irrelevant. The EC is in place and each candidate plays by those rules. Trump just had the better strategy.

      
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