Quote:
Originally Posted by T50_Omaha8
I had an interesting problem in a statistics class that attempted to look at the power an individual voter has in a large swing state versus a small swing state (assuming voting outcomes are normally distributed around a mean of 50% for each candidate).
It turns out the voter in a larger swing state has a substantially larger chance of affecting the election outcome (in terms of expected electoral votes his candidate gains as a result of him voting). The voter is less likely to affect the outcome of his larger state, but the fewer times that he manages to affect the outcome he generates far more electoral votes. I believe the discrepancy was threefold in expected number of electoral votes, but I'd have to look at this as it was years ago.
In light of this, it would make sense to invest significantly more money in a larger swing state than it would several smaller swing states, even if the sum of the votes of the small swing states is the same as the votes of the larger swing state.
Yeah. I wouldn't hazard a confident guess as to whether Presidential campaign managers and staffs know this either through empiricism or just intuitively, and I've never proved it out myself, but I'm pretty confident a study of Presidential campaign spending in the last two decades reflects this conclusion -- that a whole lots of money gets dumped in Ohio and Florida, and relatively less (even controlling for population size) gets spent in New Mexico or Iowa.
I think pointing out the holes in the Electoral College works best working backwards -- put yourself behind the uhh, Electoral Circumstance Veil of Ignorance and look at the Electoral College and try to guess see where all the resources and candidate political capital should get spent if you knew NOTHING about the political allegiance of voters or anything about the real world, and JUST knew about the rules of the game. Logically, you'd assume California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania/Illinois get the would get alot of money and attention, in that order.
Instead the
top 5 ad spend states in 2008 were Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. Now, I won't ardently claim that ad spending = parochial local interests used their (probable) political leverage effectively, but it's probably a good proxy as to which states the candidates tried most to appease both during the campaign and potentially after. Follow the money imo.
Why that happened -- why the difference between the two lists -- should given you an answer as to who the EC 'unnaturally' harms and benefits, and why. I share your conclusion: big swing states get the most 'artificial' leverage. Big non-swing states lose the most.
Last edited by DVaut1; 03-26-2012 at 02:52 PM.