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September LC Thread September LC Thread

09-15-2011 , 04:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
Duh! The economy isn't growing because of Obama!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
No, you lack a clue. It's because of the GOP!
LOL... At some point, you partisans will figure out what I've been saying here for over 2 years. But right now, you both couldn't be more off track.
09-15-2011 , 04:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
LOL... At some point, you partisans will figure out what I've been saying here for over 2 years. But right now, you both couldn't be more off track.
09-15-2011 , 04:49 PM
Quote:
. . . regime uncertainty is a multifaceted and somewhat nuanced concept. Many economists don’t like it because it cannot be measured and compiled along with other standard macro variables in a convenient data base. But, as I have tried to show for fifteen years, various forms of empirical evidence can be and have been brought to bear to show that regime uncertainty is not simply a figment of the analyst’s imagination or an all-purpose club with which the Chamber of Commerce whacks the government’s every move to increase taxes or augment regulations. Anyone who actually manages a business or makes serious investment can readily understand the idea. [Those] who generally do not manage businesses or make serious investments, view the idea as merely something their ideological opponents toss out to obstruct the application of their [policies]. - Bob Higgs (originator of the term "regime uncertainty")
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09-15-2011 , 04:50 PM
BTW, I heard that UBS suffered a sudden and unexpected $2 billion trading loss. How much does this add to the "uncertainty" being referred to above? Does it add more or less "uncertainty" than Solyndra?
09-15-2011 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
LOL! Uh huh.

Yes, you keep offering that hollow reaction. Yet month after month, you keep scratching your head as to the real reasons for the global, systemic financial double-dip (which is here to stay). I'll let you get back to your partisan bickering. Should provide you the "answers" you both seek any time now.

No doubt, it's just flawed ideology that is to blame.
09-15-2011 , 04:56 PM
The pioneering work on the application of the regime uncertainty hypothesis as applied to the Great Depression:

http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_01_4_higgs.pdf
09-15-2011 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
BTW, I heard that UBS suffered a sudden and unexpected $2 billion trading loss. How much does this add to the "uncertainty" being referred to above? Does it add more or less "uncertainty" than Solyndra?
lololol

Excellent example. Do you know why the "rogue trader" lost $2B?

Because the SNB pegged the Franc to the Euro.

Surprise!
09-15-2011 , 05:00 PM
And what is this attempt to make the subject of regime uncertainty somehow partisan? Both parties are responsible for the government's crazed schemes.
09-15-2011 , 05:00 PM
lol Boro, much as I am interested in what a mises faculty guy has to say about "Keynesian economists, who generally do not manage businesses or make serious investments," given that I spent most of my day negotiating a business deal worth billions, I'm gonna go ahead and credit myself with having "manage[d] a business" and "mak[ing] serious investments".
09-15-2011 , 05:01 PM
Well it is also possible that some people are simply not smart enough to comprehend the bleedingly obvious.
09-15-2011 , 05:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borodog
lololol

Excellent example. Do you know why the "rogue trader" lost $2B?

Because the SNB pegged the Franc to the Euro.

Surprise!
Surprise indeed!!!
09-15-2011 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borodog
And what is this attempt to make the subject of regime uncertainty somehow partisan? Both parties are responsible for the government's crazed schemes.
Well our friend 13th says it's Obama's fault, so I look forward to hearing from 13th how Obama convinced the Swiss to peg their currency.
09-15-2011 , 05:05 PM
Ok Elliot, Ill define uncertainty for you as I see it.

Uncertainty is when outcomes and results can not be determined.

How do Solyndra, Boeing, Gibson Guitar and the DoJ merger of AT&T and T-Mobile increase uncertainty?

Because they are violations of the principles of the free market and the continuation of "crony capitalism."

When the politicians in Washington are making decisions that individually decide winners and losers, we no longer have Rule of Law, we have Rule of Man.

Solyndra has showed that if you want your company to get loans in order to grow and develop, you would benefit greatly by lobbying and donating to your favorite politician. No longer do firms or investors need to worry about whether or not their products are economically viable.

No longer is the market regulated by the certainty that jobs are created by the most economically efficient firms. That certainty is now lost.

The example of Boeing has decreased the economic certainty that jobs and manufacturers flow to the states where they are cheapest to create. Now if you want to create a huge factory you have to make sure you aren't pissing off any groups with political influence first. Now people who would be inclined to invest in creating such factories are uncertain they will be able to pay off because a factory and 1,000 jobs can be stopped abruptly by the whims of some bureaucrats.

Do you get what I'm trying to say now?
09-15-2011 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
:.

Whatever definition of "uncertainty" you are using, please explain how, say, Soylandra increased it more than, say, the GOP taking the country to the brink of default by refusing to increase the debt ceiling. Please be specific about the business/investment decisions that were affected by each, the magnitude of such decisions, and their materiality in the context of the U.S. and global economies.

Until you can answer basic questions about your assertions, you'll excuse me if I don't take your accusations that I'm sticking my head in the sand all that seriously.
This is much like what Justice Potter Stewert said "I can't explain it I just know it when I see it"

There is a lot of uncertainty right now from if OBama Care will go into effect in 2012, are we headed into a recession, can we possibly get our fiscal house in order, is inflation going to hit ....

Not saying all of it is Obama's fault but businesses do not want to just gamble and roll the dice and the uncertain future outlook has caused them to keep very high cash reserves. I think the uncertain future has also caused consumers to spend less and pay down debt. But it is hard to argue that Obama has not had a very pro business stance even in his rhetoric. Big Oil, wallstreet, the rich are all evil in his class warfare speaches.

I believe Obama was complaining about the Reps causing "uncertainty" during the debt ceiling debate and hurting the economy.
09-15-2011 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElliotR
Well our friend 13th says it's Obama's fault, so I look forward to hearing from 13th how Obama convinced the Swiss to peg their currency.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
Goofyballer, do you only read Glenn Greenwald's blog? Just wondering.

BTW, I didn't have to be told by some right wing blog that there is uncertainty in this market. It's obvious to anyone paying attention to the economy.

The Federal Reserve which employs around 50% of the economists with post-graduate degress doesn't have a clue what to do. It's lent billions upon billions of dollars to financial institutions at home and abroad in secret.

What was the impact on our economy due to the stimulus? Economists can't even agree whether it was positive or negative.

It's not the ever expanding regulations that is creating uncertainty, it's the never ending picking of winners and losers by our country's leaders that have created this mess we are in. This didn't just start with Obama, this can be traced back to Reagan. Both parties are at fault.

Who decides what company gets a bailout? Why did Goldman-Sachs get one and not Lehman? That's uncertainty.

I would bet a lot of people aren't investing because they want to see which companies might benefit or not benefit from the stimulus and AJA.

You can regurgitate all of Glenn Greenwald's BS blaming this on the fat cat capitalists all you want. But the truth of the matter is that this country's government doesn't have a clue how to manage the economy.

They think giving their donors loans and helpful regulations will help the economy and it's only hurting more and more.
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09-15-2011 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
Solyndra has showed that if you want your company to get loans in order to grow and develop, you would benefit greatly by lobbying and donating to your favorite politician.
Wait, really? This is news to you? Solyndra has showed the world this revolutionary new technique that has never been employed before? It's only This Administration that's picking "winners and losers"?

And more importantly, you're asserting that this form of "uncertainty", however that works, is news to investors or anyone in the business world?
09-15-2011 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
It's not the ever expanding regulations that is creating uncertainty, it's the never ending picking of winners and losers by our country's leaders that have created this mess we are in. This didn't just start with Obama, this can be traced back to Reagan. Both parties are at fault.
OK, if there was high uncertainty due to government interference during boom times (Reagan, Clinton), then you've got an uphill battle to show that now the government has created so much more uncertainty than there ever ever was.
09-15-2011 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
Wait, really? This is news to you? Solyndra has showed the world this revolutionary new technique that has never been employed before? It's only This Administration that's picking "winners and losers"?

And more importantly, you're asserting that this form of "uncertainty", however that works, is news to investors or anyone in the business world?
Well in the special case of Solyndra, it's showed that it doesn't matter how financially ****ed your company is either. At least before, the government was giving the appearance that these loans were for companies that you know... actually had a remote chance of turning a profit.
09-15-2011 , 05:17 PM
Wasnt Solyndra booming before the market prices of their products fell 40% in 6 months due to international competition?
09-15-2011 , 05:18 PM
Also if uncertainty is such a problem the government should put up taxes now enough to cover the deficit and pay off the debt in the future and fix them forever.

Its the only logical conclusion.
09-15-2011 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
OK, if there was high uncertainty due to government interference during boom times (Reagan, Clinton), then you've got an uphill battle to show that now the government has created so much more uncertainty than there ever ever was.
Troubled Asset Relief Program

Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009

United States debt-ceiling crisis

and finally...

American Jobs Act
09-15-2011 , 05:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
Also if uncertainty is such a problem the government should put up taxes now enough to cover the deficit and pay off the debt in the future and fix them forever.

Its the only logical conclusion.
Yes, that'd be true if raising taxes were the only way to reduce the deficit.

But here's a Hint:
Spoiler:
It's not.
09-15-2011 , 05:25 PM
MY GOD MAN, you mean to say the government is passing LAWS now! This is brand new information.

The laws, they're, like so, uncertain in their uncertainty, they're just uncertainizing this whole uncertain situation. We uncertainly can't ask an uncertain someone with some uncertain legal knowledge to read those laws and uncertainly tell us what they uncertainly mean and what they'll uncertainly do.
09-15-2011 , 05:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
Yes, that'd be true if raising taxes were the only way to reduce the deficit.

But here's a Hint:
Spoiler:
It's not.
Hold on, no need to straw man, at no point did i say raising taxes is the only way to reduce a deficit. I know its easier to dodge the point that address it i guess, but cmon.
09-15-2011 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
Well in the special case of Solyndra, it's showed that it doesn't matter how financially ****ed your company is either. At least before, the government was giving the appearance that these loans were for companies that you know... actually had a remote chance of turning a profit.
Funny, I remember people saying the same thing about this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
This Administration, pioneers in creating the Most Uncertainty Ever!

Listing off stuff the government does and saying it causes uncertainty is lol. Like, what is the American Jobs Act doing that's creating so much uncertainty? Why are you making posts like this

Quote:
Originally Posted by The 13th 4postle
Yes, that'd be true if raising taxes were the only way to reduce the deficit.

But here's a Hint:
Spoiler:
It's not.
when massive reductions in government spending would also cause ZOMG UNCERTAINTY?

      
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