I'm surprised FL is close...but only because the Dems picked a pretty bad candidate. Apparently he lied on a resume or about his resume or something (said he was a CPA, he's never worked as a CPA, said he's owned a small business, has never owned a small business, **** like that). Then there's Rubio who missed more senate votes than any senator in like ever, but he's got better name recognition obv and a good ground game. I think they are debating tonight on TV.

NYT article on California Prop 58, which would repeal a 1998 ballot measure that basically made public education English-only.

lol Schilling running against Elizabeth Warren in 2018

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...o-game-company

What an idiot.

The more I read about FL's Amendment 1 the more astounded I am that it was ever put on the ballot. It's shockingly misleading. It's being pushed by utility companies and pretty much every critic says it was designed to and will in fact kill solar in FL but it's being sold as a "solar energy amendment."

As bad as FL gov can be at least the courts are usually pretty good in keeping misleading **** from becoming ballot initiatives, no idea what happened with this one.

In California, correct me if I'm mistaken, but YES on 62 and NO on 66 if you are against the Death Penalty and don't get those mixed up.

54 is interesting. It requires bills to be posted on the internet for 3 days for public comment before a vote. It seems like a good idea, but there are some arguments against. The Democratic Party and a few Unions are for it, but a very wide variety of people are against. (Green party, NAACP, Libertarians, Republicans, business, newspapers)

I'm leaning against. Really seems like power brokers in Cali are for it and everyone else is against.

I think I'm voting for Kamala Harris.

The state assembly rep in my district is a hard one for me. The Republican is a moderate (socially liberal - totally disavows Trump) and he lives on my block and he's a super nice guy, his wife and kids are great, he has two kids the same age as my kids. We're not like close friends, but I've known them for like 9 years. - I'll probably vote for him. A Republican in the Cali State Assembly can't do much harm anyway (it's 52 to 28 Dems).

What do you guys use for senate predictions?

Its kind of interesting to me that 538 has it approximately 75% for Dems to retake the Senate, but realclearpolitics has it most likely to be 51-49 for the Republicans.

I'm inclined to believe 538, but don't actually know what they're doing differently.

Sam Wang is modeling the Senate, and has it 62% Dem:
http://election.princeton.edu/todays...unt-histogram/

HuffPo has poll tracking for every state if you want to look at pictures and speculate on your own:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...6-senate-races

Thanks

Just read the text, I assume the "abstain from subsidizing" language means utilities will charge a fee for solar users. That's the way the Nevada bill worked.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/poli...109017387.html

Cali bros, I'm kinda leaning Sanchez on the strength of her vote against the Iraq war. Any other key differentiators I should know about?

There was a brief discussion in the lc thread about whether ballot referendums are bad, and this is pretty much exhibit A.

As to whether what they are actually asking for is bad is a bit more open for debate, but it's definitely a thing that should be pursued either in state legislature or in front of their state regulatory commission.

In local news, disbarred sex offender and antebellum cosplayer Joe Morrissey continues to lead solidly in the Richmond VA mayoral race. On the other hand, he did bring an AK-47 to the state House of Delegates.

That's a good one, but Kamala does say she opposed the Iraq War from the beginning and it's not like the Iraq War vote was the Patriot Act or something where you had to stick your neck out like Barbara Lee to vote against it. Most Democrats voted against the Iraq War resolution.

I'm leaning towards Harris because of things like Prop. 57, which in my mind(1) is a move towards ending mass incarceration and in Sanchez's mind(2) it's

(1) and Jerry Brown, Gavin Newsom, Charlie Beck, Democratic party, Libertarian Party, Green Party, bunch of others

(2) and Tom McClintock, Republican party, buncha cops and prosecutors

I disagree. Like Churchill said Democracy is the worst form of government except for every other kind, you have to compare it to the alternative. State legislatures are awful. The legislators themselves are generally no better than average people at this, they are just as easily influenced by arguments of interested parties and are much more easily influenced in other ways.

Case in point, elected representatives can easily be worse than the average person.

Thanks for your posts on Sanchez/Harris, they've helped.

Yeah, good post, micro. You have me back on the fence.

Article on Jason Kander (D) tightening the race in MO, specifically after releasing this ad, which is amazing:

That ad slayed in MO. The gun fetish here is insane. I anticipate required carry here in the 5 years.
I do expect Blunt to outperform his polling with a strong GOTV operation in the evangelical SW Missouri. It will be close.

That's a fantastic ad.

Damn that ad is hotttt

I agree with this. My state rep has trouble forming complete sentences it's horrible

I live in MA, not even NH, and don't watch much TV at all, but I'm not kidding when I say I've seen maybe 500 ads for the Hassan vs. Ayotte race. Hassan should be able to win if it wasn't for her unlivable Martha Coakley vibe.

I'm pretty sure I heard on NPR that the spend for just this race will approach something like $75-100M. Just unreal.....

Right now:

Il/WI are locks
IN/NV are 90%+. NV early voting is brutal for GOP turnout, possibly the worst in the country short of AZ. Two NV House seats are also going to flip
NC leans D, early voting looks very good
PA leans D
--50---
MO tossup
NH tossup, possibly slight lean R. Polls all show greater than usual ticket splitting
FL leans R. Rubio is not winning by much but has never trailed
AZ/LA 99% R