Nate has the Senate at 54.7% to go Dem aorn. Not sure which races have had the most lolz so far. Any Republicans talking about rape? Any GOP senate candidates that haven't endorsed Trump?

Dems likely to win the summed popular vote for the House and yet not sniff a majority of seats outside of a massive wave. Any decent headlines from these races?

LOL California state props. Voting in this state is harder than any other, because there is so much more crap to figure out. At least some guy made some haikus for us:



Goofy, are these summaries fair?

I haven't done my annual ballot proposition study session yet, but probably. Got my extremely thick ballot guide in the mail recently, thankfully the SF election office will now let you get your city guide delivered by email.

California's senate race is quite boring. State AG Kamala Harris vs. Los Angeles-area congresswoman Loretta Sanchez. Because of the new-ish open primary system where the general is top 2 finishers, both are Democrats.

Am I supposed to have a preference between Honda and Khanna or however you spell his name? I now live in that district.

Haven't heard of either of them.

Hoo boy, San Francisco alone has 24 local ballot measures. Highlights:

- Prop F: allow 16 and 17 year olds to vote in city elections
- Prop N: allow non-citizens to vote in school board elections (surely some jimmies will be rustled here)
- Prop V: soda tax of 1c per oz
- Prop W: increasing real estate sales tax on properties over $5 mil

MA and ME are both trying to be the first state east of the Mississippi to legalize recreational pot. Pretty sure it's gonna pass in MA, dunno how things look in ME.

Yeah, between them an CA, >1/3 of Americans could have legal access to weed.

Darrell Issa's house race (CA-49) is one of 43 targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" program. The opponent is a retired Marine colonel who "firmly embraces a progressive agenda that closely mirrors that advocated by Bernie Sanders during his presidential bid". Latest polling from the DCCC is 48-46 Issa.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/i...-campaign.html

Trump is just a one-off event, not a symptom of the GOP swamp, guys.

I get to vote in five races this year.

Pres, Senate, House Reps, State Senate, and Assembly

Currently, the likely margins are, respectively, +20, +40, +20, and the last two are running unopposed.

Really feel like my vote counts.

Missouri has interesting races. Trump will win the state but the Dems might take the Senate and the Governor.

This post in the election thread made me realize how little I know about the Senate races:

According to this 270 to win page, it's basically 45-44 Democrats (factoring in seats that aren't up for grabs this election + taking out of play the seats considered "safe" for incumbent parties) with 11 contested seats, which are (with their rating)...

McCain (R-AZ) - likely R
Rubio (R-FL) - lean R
Kirk (R-IL) - lean D
Coats (R-IN) (retiring) - toss up (I wasn't familiar with this race at all but apparently the D candidate is a former senator and governor of IN so he's got a strong chance?)
Vitter (R-LA) (retiring) - likely R
Blunt (R-MO) - lean R
Burr (R-NC) - lean R
Ayotte (R-NH) - toss up
Reid (D-NV) - toss up
Toomey (R-PA) - toss up
Johnson (R-WI) - lean D

Seems like it's a dogfight for control. If you give the leans/likely seats to their respective frontrunners, that makes it 47-49 in favor of Republicans, with the toss-up races in IN/NH/NV/PA deciding the rest.

These guys are really gonna miss Obama. How will they be able to "subtly" spew their racism on social media after he's gone?

The confederate flags are everywhere right now here in Alabama. There aren't that many Trump flags or signs but you can't drive anywhere without seeing a few rebel flags on a truck or a motorcycle or flying in front of somebody's house. Often accompanied by an American flag. Seriously, it's been ramping up since early this year but they are really ubiquitous right now. Probably about 10x as many confederate flags as you would see on a normal year.

Do the Democrats have any hope of redrawing congressional districts such that they aren't ****ed so bad in the house all the time?

Seems hopeless since state legislatures decide in most states and the Dems are still doing poorly there. Don't see how that changes any time soon.

Any chance gerrymandering could be ruled unconstitutional? Are major court cases pending?

Not until 2022, and only if they win big at the state level in 2020

Bump 4 Content

These look like the four Senate races worth watching imo:

North Carolina


New Hampshire


Nevada


Pennsylvania






There's also Louisiana's lol Jungle Primary

Ayotte/Hassan in NH is a slugfest. Every commercial break in NH pre Pats game so far has 2 commercials from each camp.

Ayotte is truly a derplorable person. Can't wait to vote against her and Trump.

My uncle was a friend of Pat's. He's the only r in a tight race I hope pulls it out.

Any IN senate updates?

Not really. Huffpo was a whopping 3 polls for IN, but Bayh is up comfortably in all of them.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...-young-vs-bayh

Rec MJ in AZ is 50/50 polling aorn but that's bec the younger voters are supporting it and they prob won't show up in sufficient numbers.

Senate rn:

IL 100% D
WI 100% D
IN 80%+ D, Young has never led
NV probably D
PA lean D

NC tossup, I'd say slight D because of ground
NH tossup
MO slight lean R. Ground could make the difference here as Kanter is very close.

AZ (McCain) 90%+ R
FL (Rubio) 90%+ R
LA 99% R after the jungle primary

PA makes 50. With current conditions Dems take 51-52 on avg.

Missouri will be a dogfight, a lot of national money is coming in on both sides. I am not sire who the ground game favors Blunt's southwest MO churches or the Dems inner city churches.

The internals being referred to here are the good kind, but that it's so one sided makes me think there's a whiff of Romney 2012 in there or they're being selective in what got leaked (no guys Bayh is not actually behind sry). Interestingly, though, they have FL as very close.

The wider picture, though, is that they have the national race at ~12 points and are claiming that this year is like '96 with few Congressional losses. That's one possibility, but if it's really 12 now and he loses the debate (he will) with more stories to come (check), there's not actually any sort of backstop there. The Trumpies won't stop backing him, but what happens if they know it's lost and don't turn out? There's now some, though very low, chance that this becomes something insane like 20 points. If this is the case, every Republican dies.

No, there is no chance he loses by 20.

can't happen on its own, some more news would need to come in

however, if legit internals have him down 12 today, Hillary pulling 2% more from GJ / 2% from her turnout and Trump losing 4% based on new horrible thing he did/turnout is (just barely) possible