I don't know how it would ultimately play out, but they should go to the mat for Garland, even though I realize getting him in is probably not going to happen. The real mistake was made last year when Obama accepted not getting to make a pick. I'm really not sure how to fix it now, but rolling over can't be right.

Don't get me wrong, I personally much prefer Trump's pick on the court rather than Obama's. But violating norms is a dangerous path to go down and they need to be preserved.

You seem to ignore that both sides have a long history of blocking/delaying/refusing to give votes for the appointment of Judges. It is not the first time a Judge has never been given a hearing (Just for the Supreme Court) The Democrats did this to Bush when they had the majority. One of the reason why Reid got rid of the filibuster in the first place. So it did not happen with a Supreme Court pick before but your also ignoring Democrat indicating that they would have done it for the Supreme Court if given a chance. The norm is both sides played politics with confirming Judges.

But your right if the Democratic Senators want to play this hand then there is no choice to get rid of the filibuster.

Congress needed to at least hold a hearing on Garland (they could have voted no!) or Obama should have circumvented them like some columnists suggested, claiming that Congress had failed to do its duty (this may not have ultimately held up but there is some legal wording that would have allowed him to attempt it). Refusing to even hold a confirmation vote/hearing has backed Dems into either having to capitulate or throw it back in the Republican's faces.

Random hypothetical question: what's the latest date Scalia could have died where Republicans would have actually allowed Obama to nominate a replacement?

I think I got ~December 2014-March 2015 as a possible period (earlier than that and Republicans probably make "denying Obama a SCOTUS replacement" an official platform of the 2014 midterms).

You do understand that the Democrats including Schumer did this to Bush's nominee for the DC Circuit Court for 2 years and he never got a vote. Hard for them now bitch about such a tactic, let alone claim it was illegal. If your willing to do it for the 2nd most important Judgeship it's safe to say you would do it for the top position.

Suspiciously there are two events that happened during Bush's term that might be relevant that seem to be missing here.

Both of those happened when the Republicans had the majority and held the same threat of the nuclear option as they do now. Besides the majority of Democrats did attempt to filibuster Alito. So it is really hard to think of those 2 as the Norm.

When they had the majority the Democrats played hard ball on Bush's Judicial appointments.

Oh dear God. Why?

The norm is the sitting president gets the Supreme Court nominee on his watch. That happened twice under Bush. Democrats could have filibustered both but didn't. Kerry tried to filibuster but failed exactly because of the norm in place. Other Democrats didn't want to go along with the norm violation.

So you're saying if he died in Summer 2014, they would have held out 2.5 years? But if he died in Dec 2014, then Rs, would have reluctantly confirmed. Seem's unlikely that death earlier than Dec 2014 wouldn't have lead to a confirmation.

Who really knows though. it's all speculation. As to your question, I go a little later. I think if Scalia dies June 2015 or earlier, then Rs end up confirming somebody.

I'm just spitballing and being a little FPSy for fun. I think the scenario I laid out (dying right before 2014 midterms = Republicans campaign on not letting Obama pick a replacement) is at least plausible.

It should be pointed out thst it's not like the parties were all lovey dovey before Garland, the norms have been put under more and more pressure for over 20 years. It's just that Garland was extremely blatant and there wasn't any reason but pure bank shot partisanship

Norms exist and are super important, but only when they're beneficial to the GOP and the Orange Menace. There is no shame from conservatives any more, just open hypocrisy and contempt of facts. That's all the party is now.

Fascinating Parliamentary tricks

I would like to see this play out as described, if only for the C-SPAN popcorn goodness.

I actually agree with this and I think the current explanation they are giving is disingenuous and unnecessary.

We find it odd at best that this thread is as dead as its namesake.

thanks Obama