Russia seizes Ukrainian ships—Martial law declared in Ukraine - Politics and Economics

Basically from what I understand (read a few articles and discussion on r/geopolitics), the bridge Russia built is purposefully too low for big container ships to pass, already partially strangling trade to Ukraine's eastern ports on the Sea of Azov. Russia seems to basically have a pseudo-blockade, and Ukraine may have been forced into making a calculated move to cause this type of incident, as otherwise they cede away even more control of their eastern provinces. Unfortunately for Ukraine, timing couldn't be worse for them, with the UK/EU focused on Brexit, Macron with riots in Paris and a 26% approval rating, and Trump sure to not care. They may have no choice, especially with super unpopular president, and this looks like it might further escalate into a shooting war. If Ukraine decides rolls into its eastern provinces to finally crush the Russian-sponsored rebels, pretty sure Russia won't sit on their hands.

11-26-2018 , 10:59 AM

Trolly McTrollson

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Kinda surprised Russia didn’t do something like this earlier. They have a free hand to do whatever the **** they want.

11-26-2018 , 11:01 AM

alazo1985

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Serious question: what would a proper response look like?

11-26-2018 , 11:07 AM

Nonfiction

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Kinda surprised Russia didn’t do something like this earlier. They have a free hand to do whatever the **** they want.

Understand, this isn't necessarily Russia doing something now. From what I can tell, this pseudo-blockade isn't new, this current situation was caused by Ukraine forcing the issue. That area has been de-facto Russian territorial waters much like Crimea is de-facto Russian.

Quote:

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and then built a giant road bridge linking it to southern Russia that straddles the Kerch Strait - a narrow stretch of water that links the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov, which is home to two of Ukraine’s most important ports.

Russia’s control of Crimea, where its Black Sea Fleet is based, and of the bridge mean it is able to control shipping flows.

The crisis began on Sunday after Russia stopped the three Ukrainian ships from entering the Sea of Azov by placing a cargo ship beneath the bridge.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...KCN1NU0DL?il=0

Here is Russia's spin:

Quote:

The FSB said it had been forced to act because the ships had illegally entered its territorial waters, attempted illegal actions, and ignored warnings to stop while manoeuvring dangerously.

“Weapons were used with the aim of forcibly stopping the Ukrainian warships,” the FSB said in a statement circulated to Russian state media.

“As a result, all three Ukrainian naval vessels were seized in the Russian Federation’s territorial waters in the Black Sea.”

The further spin is that Ukraine did this now because its President is massively unpopular right now with an upcoming election, and martial law may be a way to postpone those elections while this incident can be used to wave the flag and raise his popularity.

11-26-2018 , 11:08 AM

Trolly McTrollson

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Guess we’re going to see a bunch of new posters with questionable English in the next few days.

11-26-2018 , 11:14 AM

Nonfiction

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Quote:

"We condemn Russia's act of aggression ... This incident provides further evidence of Russia's destabilising behaviour in the region," Theresa May's spokesperson told reporters.

"The UK position is clear, ships must be allowed free passage to Ukrainian ports in the sea of Azov. We urge all parties to act with restraint. Russia must not be allowed to use force to exert greater pressure on Ukraine."

Quote:

Angela Merkel told Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko she would do everything to try to defuse the standoff between Ukraine and Russia, Mr Poroshenko's office said after a phone call between the two leaders.

Russia has ignored Western calls to release three Ukrainian naval ships it fired on and captured near Crimea at the weekend and accused Kiev of plotting with its Western allies to provoke a conflict.

"Angela Merkel expressed concern about the escalation of Russian aggression with the use of weapons and said that she would do everything for de-escalation," a statement on Poroshenko's website said.

Quote:

European Council president Donald Tusk has condemned Russia's actions and urged Moscow to stop provoking Ukraine and return any sailors or vessels it is holding.

He tweeted: "I condemn Russian use of force in Azov Sea", and added that "Russian authorities must return Ukrainian sailors, vessels and refrain from further provocations".

He said he has discussed developments with Mr Poroshenko and will meet the Ukrainian leader's representatives later.

Mr Tusk added: "Europe will stay united in support of Ukraine."

....................

Quote:

Meanwhile, nothing from Donald Trump on the incident in the Black Sea. The only public statement he has made is a tweet condemning "many" migrants as "stone cold criminals".

11-26-2018 , 11:18 AM

Live Forever

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how does the US respond to warships entering their territory without following standard procedure?

perhaps the world police can educate those pesky Russians

11-26-2018 , 11:25 AM

BOIDS

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if history has shown anything it should be this:

dont **** with ukrainians, they are made of stern stuff

11-26-2018 , 11:25 AM

#10

alazo1985

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Live Forever

how does the US respond to warships entering their territory without following standard procedure?

perhaps the world police can educate those pesky Russians

This wasn’t Russian territory they built a bridge over international water and have used it to blockade Ukraine. Nice try though

11-26-2018 , 11:31 AM

#11

tomdemaine

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If EU IV has taught me anything it's that you need to be allied with the ottomans if you want to defend against russia. Unfortunately russia have already cosied up to erdogan.

11-26-2018 , 11:31 AM

#12

Nonfiction

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Live Forever

how does the US respond to warships entering their territory without following standard procedure?

perhaps the world police can educate those pesky Russians

Quote:

Originally Posted by alazo1985

This wasn’t Russian territory they built a bridge over international water and have used it to blockade Ukraine. Nice try though

US also regularly conducts freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea and Persian Gulf/Hormuz. China claims the South China sea as its territorial waters but for some reason doesn't attack US ships.

11-26-2018 , 12:08 PM

#13

grizy

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That's because China's South China Sea claim is absolute garbage and China knows it. Their entire historical claim was basically: our fishermen knew those islands existed hundreds of years ago and therefore they are ours.

Notice pretty much every maritime/littoral nation in the area can make the same claim.

In a stroke of irony, China is using the same tactics Japan did before WWI. Basically squat on as many islands as possible and dare people to kick them out.

11-26-2018 , 12:09 PM

#14

otatop

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Quote:

Originally Posted by alazo1985

Serious question: what would a proper response look like?

Crippling sanctions tacked on to the sanctions that should have been enforced months ago.

11-26-2018 , 12:34 PM

#15

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tomdemaine

If EU IV has taught me anything it's that you need to be allied with the ottomans if you want to defend against russia. Unfortunately russia have already cosied up to erdogan.

Yep, keep Russia from forming but barring that, keep every province touching the Black Sea/Sea of Azov out of Russian hands or you're just asking for TROUBLE

11-26-2018 , 12:49 PM

#16

Namath12

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Live Forever

how does the US respond to warships entering their territory without following standard procedure?

perhaps the world police can educate those pesky Russians

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trolly McTrollson

Guess we’re going to see a bunch of new posters with questionable English in the next few days.

Missing the questionable English but, yeah, andherewego.gif

11-26-2018 , 01:00 PM

#17

punter11235

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Quote:

Crippling sanctions tacked on to the sanctions that should have been enforced months ago.

Dangerous. If Russia becomes desperate they may retaliate by stopping gas supply to Europe. As long as Europe relies on Russian gas we can't do anything about Putin's land grab with the exception of putting a standing army on areas still controlled by NATO (in case of Baltic countries) or Ukraine (risky cause Ukraine is not in NATO).

Sactions mean recession in Europe and Russia. This will hurt hundreds of millions of people. It's just not worth it. If you want to try something you could target individuals. Freeze accounts of the oligarchs, revoke their visas, send diplomats home. I would even prefer sending literal assassins to make them afraid than making hundred of millions of people poorer.

With "crippling" sanctions you are targeting common people who can't do much about the situation anyway, it's not like they can vote the gang out. Realistically I think we need to work on alternative energy sources long term and supply from Middle East which we control short-term. Any policy that causes oil and gas prices to fall long term is going to help much than sanctions.

11-26-2018 , 01:12 PM

#18

markksman

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This is pretty much the definition of an international incident. But the West is a mess and won’t do anything so Putin knows he has free reign to do anything he wants as long as he doesn’t bother China.

This is very bad.

11-26-2018 , 01:26 PM

#19

Namath12

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One last chance for Nikki Haley to embarrass herself on the way out the door

11-26-2018 , 02:15 PM

#20

Nonfiction

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Quote:

Originally Posted by grizy

Not sure if you are missing the point or what. Poster I was responding to basically implied that Ukranian ships were entering "Russian" territory, because Russia claims it as its territory. Similar to China with the SCS, although the sea of azov is at least de-facto Russian territory unlike the SCS.

However to address the larger point, China's claim is obviously garbage but no one except the USA would actually oppose them if they tried to enforce their claim right now. Russia can enforce their claim of the Sea of Azov because Ukraine is weak, has no navy, and has no supporting powers. Might makes right.

Last edited by Nonfiction; 11-26-2018 at 02:20 PM.

11-26-2018 , 02:20 PM

#21

Nonfiction

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Quote:

Ukraine's representative to the UN Security Council is now giving his statement. He begins by referring to an incident on 26 November 1939 when Soviet Russia orchestrated an incident near the Finnish border as a pretext for an invasion, known as the "Winter War."

Quote:

Russia's representative compares the discussion at the UN security council as akin to "finding a black cat in a dark room".

He adds: 'You are condemning a Russian act of aggression but you are not talking about why we met for this meeting." He again describes the incident as "a gross act of provocation" by Ukraine.

11-26-2018 , 02:26 PM

#22

Namath12

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“Marshall Law” seems like a good title for a CBS Friday night crime drama set in a sleepy Kansas town. Also a good porn name.

11-26-2018 , 08:35 PM

#23

campfirewest

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BOIDS

if history has shown anything it should be this:

dont **** with ukrainians, they are made of stern stuff

Just look what they did to this Risk board.

11-27-2018 , 02:36 AM

#24

bacalaopeace

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Quote:

Originally Posted by alazo1985

Serious question: what would a proper response look like?

Negotiate Ukraine's reincorporation as a Soviet province.

11-27-2018 , 02:37 AM

#25

bacalaopeace

old hand

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Quote:

Originally Posted by grizy

If you repeat a lie for a while, then everyone listening to you starts to believe it. Probably most Chinese believe all these claims. Maybe not the shot callers (though most people believe their own bull**** after a while too).

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