meanwhile in russia:
https://www.reuters.com/article/russ...-idUSL8N1LM3FE
Quote:
Credit rating agency Moody’s said on Tuesday it had downgraded Otkritie Bank after Russia’s central bank stepped in to bail out the struggling lender.
Otkritie said it was surprised by the move as the downgrade did not reflect its “increased level of reliability” since the central bank took control of its operations under the rescue package.
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/...-to-fail-58839
Quote:
The most stunning episode of this “cleansing offensive” occurred last month when the Central Bank took over 75 percent of the country’s largest private lender, Otkritie. According to the Central Bank, the restructuring of Otkritie — which the Bank will oversee — will require between 250 and 400 billion rubles ($3.3 - $6.5 billion).
Russia's biggest private bank has to be bailed out for essentially lying about its assets over at least several years. Central bank took over 75% of the bank's shares, while leaving its management in place. The bailout will essentially inject anywhere from 500b-1t rubles of new money into the russian economy, which is equivalent to almost 5-10% of all consumer debt in russia. that doesn't sound like a lot, but for a developing economy that's only starting to work on credit, it's huge.
the effect will be felt throughout russia. it's essentially a self-imposed round of inflation, that could threaten its entire lending industry. it is entirely possible that either 1) putin's government will need to institute price controls and kill growth even further, or more likely 2) bail out credit lenders in some fashion while letting the population absorb higher prices. #2 could be especially problematic because close to half of the population lives at or below poverty levels outside of a few urban centers. once the price of bread goes through inflation, revolutions happen.
Another problem for putin is Kadyrov's new statement on persecution of muslims in Myanmar. kadyrov is essentially a separatist who has bent the knee as long as he can do whatever he wants locally, but he is religious enough to speak out against Russia's veto of the UN Security Council resolution on Myanmar.
it isn't clear what putin might want from myanmar's military leadership, but it more likely than not has something to do with their military cooperation agreement, arms dealings, and possibly an alliance to stand up to China in southeast asia.
https://www.ft.com/content/f25212fa-...a-eda243196c2c
Quote:
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https://www.ft.com/content/f25212fa-...a-eda243196c2c
Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman ruler of Chechnya, has challenged the Russian government’s policy on Myanmar because of Yangon’s persecution of the country’s Rohingya Muslim minority.
Mr Kadyrov also presided over a massive rally in Grozny, the Chechen capital, at which there was a call for jihadist fighters to be sent to the south-east Asian country.
His threat highlights the fragility of Moscow’s control over Chechnya, the tense North Caucasus territory over which it fought two bloody wars.
Chechnya has been kept quiet over the past decade only thanks to a deal under which Mr Kadyrov receives generous financial support from Moscow and a free hand to run the republic as a personal fiefdom in exchange for loyalty to president Vladimir Putin.
in other news, another regional official for Navalny's presidential campaign was arrested and put in jail for 10 days. The campaign now has over 100k volunteers and twice as many signatures it needs to officially make Navalny's candidacy legitimate, and they are still trying to get to 1,000,000. That's a huge number for a country like russia. protests during and after the election are likely, and if history is any indication
Although Navalny's made up conviction will probably be used to keep him out of the race, there is a backup plan. Putin's government also prevented a popular local mayor to run as an incumbent, causing Navalny and lots of other supporters to call for a wide-spread boycott. The mayor was somewhat controversial, he is not a member of Putin's party, and notoriously hard on drug policy, but if he is not on the ballot, a wide-spread boycott action is more likely than not. there will be