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Rich (Now with the Upper Middle Class) Rich (Now with the Upper Middle Class)

10-06-2010 , 12:54 PM
Taxes were alluded to in Fly's LC post, but this discussion has always been about defining "rich". What exactly about that is "telling"?
10-06-2010 , 12:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zygote
overall i think his picture his sound though, but my preferred terminology and expression is different than his and i think his can lead to more confusion so i try avoid it.
Language is for communication. I mean it can also be used for internal monologues, but optimizing language usage for that purpose isn't going to be pleasant in the long run.


Quote:
so AIG, fannie, etc. are more creditworthy more than me even when they have negative equity? also their assets are only worth something when the fed decides to buy it too. if suddenly the fed wnated to pay high prices for zygote notes i print, id be really credit worthy too i guess.
This has nothing whatsoever to do with the Fed. There's an international market for these funds, do you understand this? You too can borrow! There's nothing that stops you from opening an account and borrowing directly from these markets, nor is there anything that stops you from starting an investment bank and bypassing intermediaries. And Berkshire Hathaway is deemed more creditworthy than any of these entities, despite not being a bank of any sort. It's just a private pool of capital. Again, there's nothing privileged about those market entities.

The way it comes across is that you have neither scale, nor credit, nor know-how to access these completely open markets and you're just sure that there's some nefarious way those people are screwing you over This is no more than a conspiracy theory. It's not a big deal to be a primary dealer. It's just a market-making operation for treasuries. They make money on the thinniest of margins mostly by arranging trades between customers. It's not that hard to get a job on those desks and they don't make much money, for themselves or for the banks.

To quote myself:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
Nothing stops you from starting your own investment bank. I understand that you don't have enough money and don't have the knowledge to run such a business but this is like saying that factory-owners are privileged by having enough money to build a factory and knowing how to run a factory. Or that Wal-Mart is privileged by being able to buy goods made in Chinese factories in bulk at prices lower than you can get buying one item at a time. That's just free market at work. Note that you can always buy shares of existing investment banks, or Wal-Mart or other companies.

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you just dont want to listen to the answer. i told you already, the government and primary dealers. what dont you understand about this answer?
Who is this "government" guy? And by primary dealers, you mean all those banks that lost money? How did shareholders of these corporations benefit? They didn't do anything and lost money. Besides, how are they getting money any way? Literally, the Fed buys and sells things into the market and influences prices of securities that way. Everyone else gets the exact same price. And who are those actual people? "Primary dealers" is not at all specific, especially since you don't seem to include actual owners.

Again, to quote myself:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
Why does it matter if you sell it to a central bank or anyone else? Market prices are the same. If I own say, 500 shares of GS and the Fed starts buying GS shares, I get the same price regardless of whether the Fed buys my shares or someone else's shares. They are entirely fungible.
And this is how Fed's operations work. It's a market - you don't care who you sell to as long as you get the same price. And you get the same price. If you own that which the Fed is buying, you get the same price, whether you're a primary dealer or Zygote.


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i never said passive owners squandered the gifts?
Then who did? When you say "banks" economically speaking, that's synonymous with shareholders, since shareholders are the beneficiaries.


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sure some people who got credit when they otherwise wouldnt have benefited from getting this increased access to credit. this comes at the cost of credit increasing later.
So how did these people who bought houses during the boom do? They were definitely one of the first to get the new money - a very short chain between mortgage funding and fed's open market operations, I tell ya.


Quote:
you only benefit from new money if you are able to spend at unadjusted prices with your inflated income or asset. if this is the case then it is.
Well, since treasuries are bought first, money creation and inflation benefit ... bond investors? What? And why wouldn't the market anticipate this and preinflate prices? If I have a house, why wouldn't I demand more money if I see that interest rates are lower, all else being equal? How can anyone spend any money at unadjusted prices?
10-06-2010 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjkidd
Taxes were alluded to in Fly's LC post, but this discussion has always been about defining "rich". What exactly about that is "telling"?
If you don't understand post 747, then you'll just have to ignore it.
10-06-2010 , 01:03 PM
I understand it. It is just condescending nonsense.
10-06-2010 , 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
This has nothing whatsoever to do with the Fed. There's an international market for these funds, do you understand this? You too can borrow! There's nothing that stops you from opening an account and borrowing directly from these markets, nor is there anything that stops you from starting an investment bank and bypassing intermediaries. And Berkshire Hathaway is deemed more creditworthy than any of these entities, despite not being a bank of any sort. It's just a private pool of capital. Again, there's nothing privileged about those market entities.
what are you talking about? the credit lines given to aig for example was an exclusive privledge given by federal bureaucrats. this is not open to everybody. many people in better circumstances would not get the credit they got. the government gave them this credit because the open market would not. i know you are not this dense.

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Who is this "government" guy? And by primary dealers, you mean all those banks that lost money? How did shareholders of these corporations benefit? They didn't do anything and lost money. Besides, how are they getting money any way? Literally, the Fed buys and sells things into the market and influences prices of securities that way. Everyone else gets the exact same price. And who are those actual people? "Primary dealers" is not at all specific, especially since you don't seem to include actual owners.
im saying it one last time. IT DOESNT MATTER WHETHER OR NOT THEY ENDED UP MAKING MONEY. they could all be dead it doesnt change the fact that the particular action of them being flowed new money early benefited them in at least this limited sense.

even still you benefit when you get more than you should if your protection is only on the fall. If you invest a 100 and get back 1 dollar when you shouldve gotten 0 then you still benefited. and for you to get that 1 dollar someone else had to be expensed. all the bond holders who havent had to suffer hair cuts have benefited. etc. etc. etc.

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And this is how Fed's operations work. It's a market - you don't care who you sell to as long as you get the same price. And you get the same price. If you own that which the Fed is buying, you get the same price, whether you're a primary dealer or Zygote.
i get the same price AFTER THE FACT. i can only benefit if i can predict the specific support and price it in before someone else. this post is really the last time im repeating these same points. please further the argument.

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Then who did? When you say "banks" economically speaking, that's synonymous with shareholders, since shareholders are the beneficiaries.
banks benefit in a holistic sense. banks are not just share holders. there are lots of people who depend on their income besides shareholders.

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So how did these people who bought houses during the boom do? They were definitely one of the first to get the new money - a very short chain between mortgage funding and fed's open market operations, I tell ya.
see above. this point is not a good one.

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Well, since treasuries are bought first, money creation and inflation benefit ... bond investors? What? And why wouldn't the market anticipate this and preinflate prices? If I have a house, why wouldn't I demand more money if I see that interest rates are lower, all else being equal? How can anyone spend any money at unadjusted prices?
because the we dont know when and how much is going through the fed's head. its a guessing game and speculators do try inflate or disinflate prices based on fed purchase and sale expectations.

people spend money at unadjusted prices in the sense that their income rose quicker than their expenses. their expenses are not fully adjusted to their income, is what i meant.
10-06-2010 , 01:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjkidd
I understand it. It is just condescending nonsense.
Ha! Must be all my stress from living paycheck-to-paycheck.
10-06-2010 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zygote
what are you talking about? the credit lines given to aig for example was an exclusive privledge given by federal bureaucrats. this is not open to everybody. many people in better circumstances would not get the credit they got. the government gave them this credit because the open market would not. i know you are not this dense.
We're not talking about the AIG bailout. Stick to the point. AIG bailout, shockingly enough, directly benefited certain stakeholders of AIG.


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im saying it one last time. IT DOESNT MATTER WHETHER OR NOT THEY ENDED UP MAKING MONEY. they could all be dead it doesnt change the fact that the particular action of them being flowed new money early benefited them in at least this limited sense.
How can you benefit, do nothing else wrong, and end up with a loss? What did they do wrong? Or more specifically, could they have gotten the benefit without the loss? Was there any opportunity for those shareholders to benefit and not get stuck with the loss? If not, there was no net benefit to be had. If so, there's no simple way to identify who benefited and who didn't.

You seem to be saying that a child that picked up a coin in the middle of the road and got hit by the bus obviously "benefited" from the free coin.

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even still you benefit when you get more than you should if your protection is only on the fall. If you invest a 100 and get back 1 dollar when you shouldve gotten 0 then you still benefited. and for you to get that 1 dollar someone else had to be expensed. all the bond holders who havent had to suffer hair cuts have benefited. etc. etc. etc.
But what else did they do wrong? You're saying that people who invested in bank shares, in the absence of the complex monetary system we have, would have somehow figured out a way to lose even more money?


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i get the same price AFTER THE FACT. i can only benefit if i can predict the specific support and price it in before someone else. this post is really the last time im repeating these same points. please further the argument.
You get the same price, a bid is a bid is a bid. If government targets GS share price of 200, keeps it there by buying and selling as necessary, everyone gets the same price, as long as the target is maintained. And the Fed announces prices beforehand and maintains prices for a period of time. This is how the fed conducts open market operations. You seem to be saying that a guy who sells apples outside the Fed building benefits more than a guy who sells apples outside of Google because the apple guy at the Fed gets fresh new money. Who cares?


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banks benefit in a holistic sense. banks are not just share holders. there are lots of people who depend on their income besides shareholders.
Then, you haven't answered my question. Who are those people who benefit? You might as well have answered "good people" or "bad people" if your contention is that "banks" don't designate specific people, just some nebulous set of beneficiaries that you cannot specify. The whole point is that you can specify those people.

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because the we dont know when and how much is going through the fed's head. its a guessing game and speculators do try inflate or disinflate prices based on fed purchase and sale expectations.
But there's no reason why this will result in predictable mispricing. So people will pay unadjusted prices for some things, fully-adjusted prices for others, and over-adjusted prices for yet other things. But to know who benefits, you have to know which prices are unadjusted and which prices are over-adjusted. But if you knew this, you'd be able to print money! This is why your contention is so nonsensical - benefits only accrue because of mispricing and to know who benefits, you'd have to know how things are mispriced. But if you know how things are mispriced, you'd be able to speculate in such a way as to take advantage of this mispricing!
10-06-2010 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
....

People making $250k won't see their taxes go up under Obama's tax plan.

Interesting in that Obama admin is calling health care insurance mandate a tax (as I predicted they would).
10-06-2010 , 03:39 PM
"I'm trying to piece together what pvn and Zygote believe, and I think they honestly believe that "the Federal Reserve" just ships crates of cash to banks on demand or something, and that shipment is how the money supply increases, thus inflation. Like if the fed didn't do that, no inflation, but because of a little cartel of bankers controls the Fed they negotiated this special deal that lets them spend the fresh money before it hits general circulation.

They are trying to play along but they have no idea what PB means by M0, M1, etc. TBH I don't think they really grasp the concept of what "money supply" means."



This is what I believe fwiw (exept the on demand part) and i'm sure others reading do as well, but they are afraid to admit it due to your massive pretense. So can you please explain? I also am thinking that there will be no inflation until that money starts to be loaned out, but it can also be reigned back in by raising interest rates to fight any inflation.
10-06-2010 , 03:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
We're not talking about the AIG bailout. Stick to the point. AIG bailout, shockingly enough, directly benefited certain stakeholders of AIG.
all we are talking about is bailouts. there are chronic bailouts and acute bailouts.

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How can you benefit, do nothing else wrong, and end up with a loss? What did they do wrong? Or more specifically, could they have gotten the benefit without the loss? Was there any opportunity for those shareholders to benefit and not get stuck with the loss? If not, there was no net benefit to be had.
the benefit does not necessarily imply the loss.

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If so, there's no simple way to identify who benefited and who didn't
yes there is. who ends up benefiting doesnt mean anything. you clearly cant seem to realize how a limited beneficial influence can evolve in many different ways when many other forces are at work. on average, all the people in these institutions benefit more than they would otherwise on this particular point, not on net. if they end up losing, they would have lost more otherwise on this particular point, not on net. you get it?

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You seem to be saying that a child that picked up a coin in the middle of the road and got hit by the bus obviously "benefited" from the free coin.
sure he did. even if that doesnt work for you make the standard that he would have to have spent that coin before getting hit by a bus. have you ever heard of isolating a variable and realizing its effect? the isolated effect of counterfeiting is to benefit early receivers/circulators.

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But what else did they do wrong? You're saying that people who invested in bank shares, in the absence of the complex monetary system we have, would have somehow figured out a way to lose even more money?
a lot of the money they have to lose is from their inflated incomes and artificially low borrowing costs.

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You get the same price, a bid is a bid is a bid. If government targets GS share price of 200, keeps it there by buying and selling as necessary, everyone gets the same price, as long as the target is maintained. And the Fed announces prices beforehand and maintains prices for a period of time. This is how the fed conducts open market operations. You seem to be saying that a guy who sells apples outside the Fed building benefits more than a guy who sells apples outside of Google because the apple guy at the Fed gets fresh new money. Who cares?
what on earth is your point. so the fed maintains a security at an artficially high price and this means what relative to what were talking about? its only useful to me if i can speculate on their buying before hand. otherwise they are only discouraging me from buying because they are making the price artificially high! i cant win as a sales man because i cant acquire the products cheaper to resell them.

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Then, you haven't answered my question. Who are those people who benefit? You might as well have answered "good people" or "bad people" if your contention is that "banks" don't designate specific people, just some nebulous set of beneficiaries that you cannot specify. The whole point is that you can specify those people.
anyone who depends directly on the bank's income and benefits directly from its relatively higher levels. your smart enough to figure out the names of money people who fit this bill. but again i dont care if they have cancer of the testicles, they still benefited from this particular thing.

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But there's no reason why this will result in predictable mispricing. So people will pay unadjusted prices for some things, fully-adjusted prices for others, and over-adjusted prices for yet other things. But to know who benefits, you have to know which prices are unadjusted and which prices are over-adjusted. But if you knew this, you'd be able to print money! This is why your contention is so nonsensical - benefits only accrue because of mispricing and to know who benefits, you'd have to know how things are mispriced. But if you know how things are mispriced, you'd be able to speculate in such a way as to take advantage of this mispricing!
to benefit you need to have the physical means to bid up prices. if you expect the money supply to double youd expect prices to double all other real factors equal, but how can prices double before the money supply does? The early spender of money can take advantage of money in a way others cant. he has this extra money to do the bidding and sop up resources at higher prices which other wont be able to afford as much. i dont understnad how you are denying this. do you know about cantillon effects?

Last edited by Zygote; 10-06-2010 at 03:50 PM.
10-06-2010 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zygote
the benefit does not necessarily imply the loss.
So who benefited *without* the loss? Those whose attempt to benefit resulted in the loss didn't benefit, obviously.


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yes there is. who ends up benefiting doesnt mean anything.
Wait, what? We're talking about who "ends up" benefitting.


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you clearly cant seem to realize how a limited beneficial influence can evolve in many different ways when many other forces are at work.
I'm saying these many other forces make it difficult to determine who benefits and who doesn't. It seems odd to me that you think that the child who picks up the quarter and gets hit by the bus as a direct result of this action benefits from the free quarter.


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on average, all the people in these institutions benefit more than they would otherwise on this particular point, not on net. if they end up losing, they would have lost more otherwise on this particular point, not on net. you get it?
What? But the child wasn't getting hit by the bus, except for the free quarter. Investors in bank shares weren't destined to be invested in losing enterprises, but for the whole monetary system we have. Is your contention then that those invested in bank shares would have lost even more money in some alternate universe without the present system of money?


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what on earth is your point. so the fed maintains a security at an artficially high price and this means what relative to what were talking about? its only useful to me if i can speculate on their buying before hand. otherwise they are only discouraging me from buying because they are making the price artificially high! i cant win as a sales man because i cant acquire the products cheaper to resell them.
And that's all that the Fed does. It maintains prices of specific financial instruments. If you can't benefit by speculating on prices before, no one else can either. Being a primary dealer doesn't give you the benefit of knowing Fed policy before anyone else either.


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to benefit you need to have the physical means to bid up prices. if you expect the money supply to double youd expect prices to double all other real factors equal, but how can prices double before the money supply does? The early spender of money can take advantage of money in a way others cant. he has this extra money to do the bidding and sop up resources at higher prices which other wont be able to afford as much. i dont understnad how you are denying this.
Say I'm a primary dealer. I'm both long and short treasuries, but on a net basis I'm just about even, due to hedging. The fed wants to some treasuries from me. Since to be a good dealer, I need to have a balanced book so I find a seller, while increasing both bid/ask prices to take into account the additional demand. Prices increase and yields fall sufficiently till the Fed's aim is accomplished. All treasury prices everywhere in the world become higher. Who has this extra money? Certainly not me - I don't make any extra money from this than anyone else, since the Fed is no different from any other market participants from my perspective. So net sellers of treasuries on this particular date of Fed intervention have the money, correct? Who are those people? You too could be one of those people if you wanted to. Just short treasuries whenever the Fed is buying.

And prices are quite unrelated to M0 growth for obvious reasons - it's much more sensitive to larger aggregates, so in fact prices move well ahead of M0 growth. Because M1...Mn can grow flexibly with M0 held constant, there's no reason why people can't bid up prices with no new M0 in the system. In fact, in the US, we had significant price inflation with little M0 growth followed by price deflation/stagnation with massive M0 growth. People bid up prices in anticipation of future inflation/M0-growth/whatever and they can because the credit system robustly ensures that effective money supply can grow without growth in M0.
10-06-2010 , 04:24 PM
I love the smugness of the "anyone who has used the fed = printing press metaphor is a ****** and literally thinks bernanke is down in the basement printing $100 bills" argument. Classic.
10-06-2010 , 04:25 PM
10-06-2010 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth

I'm saying these many other forces make it difficult to determine who benefits and who doesn't. It seems odd to me that you think that the child who picks up the quarter and gets hit by the bus as a direct result of this action benefits from the free quarter.

What? But the child wasn't getting hit by the bus, except for the free quarter. Investors in bank shares weren't destined to be invested in losing enterprises, but for the whole monetary system we have. Is your contention then that those invested in bank shares would have lost even more money in some alternate universe without the present system of money?
the free money banks get is not the same kind of wolf in sheeps clothing. it does not come with a necessary contingent that kills you. it would be other forces responsible since, in isolation there is no reason that it should necessarily turn out this way.

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And that's all that the Fed does. It maintains prices of specific financial instruments. If you can't benefit by speculating on prices before, no one else can either. Being a primary dealer doesn't give you the benefit of knowing Fed policy before anyone else either.

but it gives you the benefit of receiving new money first. please look up cantillon effects.


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Say I'm a primary dealer. I'm both long and short treasuries, but on a net basis I'm just about even, due to hedging. The fed wants to some treasuries from me. Since to be a good dealer, I need to have a balanced book so I find a seller, while increasing both bid/ask prices to take into account the additional demand. Prices increase and yields fall sufficiently till the Fed's aim is accomplished. All treasury prices everywhere in the world become higher. Who has this extra money? Certainly not me - I don't make any extra money from this than anyone else, since the Fed is no different from any other market participants from my perspective. So net sellers of treasuries on this particular date of Fed intervention have the money, correct? Who are those people? You too could be one of those people if you wanted to. Just short treasuries whenever the Fed is buying.
youre missing the point. speculating to try make money too is outside of the picture of early receivers benefiting. you keep saying they get the market price but that price is determined by supply and demand and the demand is inflated to those direct sellers.

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And prices are quite unrelated to M0 growth for obvious reasons - it's much more sensitive to larger aggregates, so in fact prices move well ahead of M0 growth. Because M1...Mn can grow flexibly with M0 held constant, there's no reason why people can't bid up prices with no new M0 in the system. In fact, in the US, we had significant price inflation with little M0 growth followed by price deflation/stagnation with massive M0 growth. People bid up prices in anticipation of future inflation/M0-growth/whatever and they can because the credit system robustly ensures that effective money supply can grow without growth in M0.
m0 is the only thing that effects aggregate spending. yes the higher m's can effects prices, but total spending for the most part is entirely m0. if you think about it, the reason the highers m's get destroyed, is because they are attempting to actualize this money. it cant really be spent. the bank cant have an outstanding illquid loan and a depositor demand receipt at the same time. there is only one money for them to use between the two. since banks are forced to draw against scarce reserves, it is really these reserves that determine the ultimate level of spending. no more than m0 can ever truly be mobilized into the system.

Last edited by Zygote; 10-06-2010 at 04:53 PM.
10-06-2010 , 04:47 PM
long but important. an excerpt from "An Essay on Commerce in General" by Richard Cantillon in 1730

Quote:
Chapter Six
Of the increase and decrease in the quantity of hard money in
a State

If mines of gold or silver be found in a state and
considerable quantities of minerals drawn from them, the
proprietors of these mines, the undertaker, and all those who
work there, will not fail to increase their expenses in
proportion to the wealth and profit they make: they will also
lend at interest the sums of money which they have over and above
what they need to spend.
All this money, whether lent or spent, will enter into
circulation and will not fail to raise the price of products and
merchandise in all the channels of circulation which it enters.
Increased money will bring about increased expenditure and this
will cause an increase of market prices in the highest years of
exchange and gradually in the lowest.
Everybody agrees that the abundance of money or its
increase in exchange, raises the price of everything. The
quantity of money brought from American to Europe for the last
two centuries justifies this truth by experience.
Mr Locke lays it down as a fundamental maxim that the
quantity of produce and merchandise in proportion to the quantity
of money serves as the regulator of market price. I have tried to
elucidate his idea in the preceding chapters: he has clearly seen
that the abundance of money makes everything dear, but he has not
considered how it does so. The great difficulty of this question
consists in knowing in what way and in what proportion the
increase of money raises prices.
I have already remarked that an acceleration or greater
rapidity in circulation of money in exchange, is equivalent to an
increase of actual money up to a point. I have also observed that
the increase or decrease of prices in a distant market, home or
foreign, influences the actual market prices. On the other hand
money flows in detail through so many channels that it seems
impossible not to lose sight of it seeing that having been
amassed to make large sums it is distributed in little rills of
exchange, and then gradually accumulated again to make large
payments. For these operations it is constantly necessary to
change coins of gold, silver and copper according to the activity
of exchange. It is also usually the case that the increase or
decrease of actual money in a state is not perceived because it
flow abroad, or is brought into the state, by such imperceptible
means and proportions that it is impossible to know exactly the
quantity which enters or leaves the state.
However all these operations pass under our eyes and
everybody takes part in them. I may therefore venture to offer a
few observations on the subject, even though I may not be able to
give an account which is exact and precise.
I consider in general that an increase of actual money
causes in a state a corresponding increase of consumption which
gradually brings about increased prices.
If the increase of actual money comes from mines of gold
or silver in the state the owner of these mines, the adventurers,
the smelters, refiners, and all the other workers will increase
their expenses in proportion to their gains. They will consume in
their households more meat, wine, or beer than before, will
accustom themselves to wear better cloths, finer linen, to have
better furnished houses and other choicer commodities. They will
consequently give employment to several mechanics who had not so
much to do before and who for the same reason will increase their
expenses: all this increase of expense in meat, wine, wool, etc.
diminishes of necessity the share of the other inhabitants of the
state who do not participate at first in the wealth of the mines
in question. The altercations of the market, or the demand for
meat, wine, wool, etc. being more intense than usual, will not
fail to raise their prices. These high prices will determine the
farmers to employ more land to produce them in another year:
these same farmers will profit by this rise of prices and will
increase the expenditure of their families like the others. Those
then who will suffer from this dearness and increased consumption
will be first of all the landowners, during the term of their
leases, then their domestic servants and all the workmen or fixed
wage-earners who support their families on their wages. All these
must diminish their expenditure in proportion to the new
consumption, which will compel a large number of them to emigrate
to seek a living elsewhere. The landowners will dismiss many of
them, and the rest will demand an increase of wages to enable
them to live as before. It is thus, approximately, that a
considerable increase of money from the mines increases
consumption, and by diminishing the number of inhabitants entails
a greater expense among those who remain.
If more money continues to be drawn from the mines all
prices will owing to this abundance rise to such a point that not
only will the landowners raise their rents considerably when the
leases expire and resume their old style of living, increasing
proportionably the wages their servants, but the mechanics and
workmen will raise the prices of their articles so high that
there will be a considerable profit in buying them from the
foreigner who makes them much more cheaply. This will naturally
induce several people to import many articles made in foreign
countries, where found very cheap: this will gradually ruin the
mechanics and manufacturers of the state who will not be maintain
themselves there by working at such low owing to the dearness of
living.
When the excessive has diminished the inhabitants of a
state, those who remain to a too large expenditure, raised
produce of the land and the labour of workmen to excessive
prices, ruined the manufactures of the state by use of foreign
productions on the part of landlords and mine workers, the money
produced by the mines will necessarily go abroad to pay for the
imports: this will gradually impoverish the state and render it
in some sort dependent on the Foreigner to whom it is obliged to
send money every year as it is drawn from the mines. The great
circulation of money, which was general at the beginning, ceases:
poverty and misery follow and the labour of the mines appears to
be only to the advantage of those employed upon them and the
Foreigners who profit thereby.
This is approximately what has happened to Spain since the
discovery of the Indies. As to the Portuguese, since the
discovery of the gold mines of Brazil, they have nearly always
made use of foreign articles and manufactures; and it seems that
they work at the mines only for the account and advantage of
foreigners. All the gold and silver which these two states
extract from the mines does not supply them in circulation with
more precious metal than others. England and France have even
more as a rule.
Now if the increase of money in the state proceeds from a
balance of foreign trade (i.e. from sending abroad articles and
manufactures in greater value and quantity than is imported and
consequently receiving the surplus in money) this annual increase
of money will enrich a great number of merchants and Undertakers
in the state, and will give employment to numerous mechanics and
workmen who furnish the commodities sent to the foreigner from
whom the money is drawn. This will increase gradually the
consumption of these industrial inhabitants and will raise the
price of land and labour. But the industrious who are eager to
acquire property will not at first increase their expense: they
will wait till they have accumulated a good sum from which they
can draw an assured interest, independently of their trade. When
a large number of the inhabitants have acquired considerable
fortunes from this money, which enters the state regularly and
annually, they will, without fail, increase their consumption and
raise the price of everything. Though this dearness involves them
in a greater expense than they at first contemplated they will
for the most part continue so long as their capital lasts; for
nothing is easier or more agreeable than to increase the family
expenses, nothing more difficult or disagreeable than to retrench
them.
If an annual and continuous balance has brought about in a
state a considerable increase of money it will not fail to
increase consumption, to raise the price of evening and even to
diminish the number of inhabitants unless additional produce is
drawn from abroad proportionable to the increased consumption.
Moreover it is usual in states which have acquired a considerable
abundance of money to draw many things from neighbouring
countries where money is rare and consequently everything is
cheap: but as money must be sent for this the balance of trade
will become smaller. The cheapness of land and labour in the
foreign countries where money is rare will naturally cause the
erection of manufactories and works similar to those of the
state, but which will not at first be so perfect nor so highly
valued.
In this situation the state may subsist in abundance of
money, consume all its own produce and also much foreign produce
and over and above all this maintain a small balance of trade
against the foreigner or at least keep the balance level for many
years, that is import in exchange for its work and manufactures
as much money from these foreign countries as it has to send them
for the commodities or products of the land it takes from them.
If the state is a maritime state the facility and cheapness of
its shipping for the transport of its work and manufactures into
foreign countries may compensate in some sort the high price of
labour caused by the too great abundance of money; so that the
work and manufactures of this state, dear though they be, will
sell in foreign countries cheaper sometimes than the manufactures
of another state where labour is less highly paid.
The cost of transport increases a good deal the prices of
things sent to distant countries; but these costs are very
moderate in maritime states, where there is regular shipping to
all foreign ports so that Ships are nearly always found there
ready to sail which take on board all cargoes confided to them at
a very reasonable freight.
It is not so in states where navigation does not Nourish.
There it is necessary to build ships expressly for the carrying
trade and this sometimes absorbs all the profit; and navigation
there is always very expensive, which entirely discourages trade.
England today consumes not only the greatest part of its
own small produce but also much foreign produce, such as Silks,
Wines, Fruit, Linen in great quantity, etc. while she sends
abroad only the produce of her mines, her work and manufactures
for the most part, and dear though labour be owing to the
abundance of money, she does not fail to sell her articles in
distant countries, owing to the advantage of her shipping, at
prices as reasonable as in France where these same articles are
much cheaper.
The increased quantity of money in circulation in a state
may also be caused, without balance of trade, by subsidies paid
to this state by foreign powers, by the expenses of several
ambassadors, or of travellers whom political reasons or curiosity
or pleasure may induce to reside there for some time, by the
transfer of the property and fortune of some Families who from
motives of religious liberty or other causes quit their own
country to settle down in this state. In all these cases the sums
which come into the state always cause an increased expense and
consumption there and consequently raise the prices of all things
in the channels of exchange into which money enters.
Suppose a quarter of the inhabitants of the state consume
daily meat, wine, beer, etc. and supply themselves frequency with
cloths, linen, etc. before the increase in money, but that after
the increase a third or half of the inhabitants consume these
same things, the prices of them will not fail to rise, and the
dearness of meat will induce several of those who formed a
quarter of the state to consume less of it than usual. A man who
eats three pounds of meat a day will manage with two pounds, but
he feels the reduction, while the other half of the inhabitants
who ate hardly any meat will not feel the reduction. Bread will
in truth go up gradually because of this increased consumption,
as I have often suggested, but it will be less dear in proportion
than meat. The increased price of meat causes diminished
consumption on the part of a small section of the people, and so
is felt; but the of a small section of the people, and so is
felt; but the increased price of bread diminishes the share of
all the inhabitants, and so is less felt. If 100,000 extra people
come to live in a state of 10 millions of inhabitants, their
extra consumption of bread will amount to only pound in 100 which
must be subtracted from the old inhabitants; but when a man
instead of 100 pounds of bread consumes 99 for his subsistence he
hardly feels this reduction.
When the consumption of meat increases the farmers add to
their pastures to get more meat, and this diminishes the arable
land and consequently the amount of corn. But what generally
causes meat to become dearer in proportion than Bread is that
ordinarily the free import of foreign corn is permitted while the
import of Cattle is absolutely forbidden, as in England, or heavy
import duties are imposed as in other states. This is the reason
why the rents of meadows and pastures go up in England, in the
abundance of money, to three times more than the rents of arable
land.
There is no doubt that Ambassadors, Travellers, and
Families who come to settle in the state, increase consumption
there and that prices rise in all the channels of exchange where
money is introduced.
As to subsidies which the state has received from foreign
powers, either they are hoarded for state necessities or are put
into circulation. If we suppose them hoarded they do not concern
my argument for I am considering only money in circulation.
Hoarded money, plate, Church treasures, etc. are wealth which the
state turns to service in extremity, but are of no present
utility. If the state puts into circulation the subsidies in
question it can only be by spending them and this ill very
certainly increase consumption and send up all prices. Whoever
receives this money will set it in motion in the principal affair
of life, which is the food, either of himself or of some other,
since to this everything corresponds directly or indirectly.
10-06-2010 , 05:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by A_C_Slater


This is what I believe fwiw (exept the on demand part) and i'm sure others reading do as well, but they are afraid to admit it due to your massive pretense. So can you please explain? I also am thinking that there will be no inflation until that money starts to be loaned out, but it can also be reigned back in by raising interest rates to fight any inflation.
I'm a dick to them because they think they've figured it out(enough to be patronizing to PB!) when they have absolutely no grasp of the situation, I wouldn't be a dick to someone who admits they don't know. Why would you know? This is complex, high level stuff, and it's boring. I didn't know about this stuff until I took like a 400 level undergraduate economics class.

It's too complicated to easily explain in forum posts intermingled with people arguing about the definition of rich. I imagine Wikipedia or some college has some websites about it, "money supply" is an economics term of art so Googling for that will prove valuable.

It's not going to be a snap understanding situation, though, but essentially Zygote's "banks force the Fed to increase the money supply" theory betrays like a fundamental misunderstanding of the terms being used. The banks increase the money supply by themselves. The "Austrians" time frame usage in this thread(the fed creates money AFTER banks make them, spenders of that new money have a window BEFORE inflation is priced into assets) is bizarre and very confusing to me.
10-06-2010 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zygote
the free money banks get is not the same kind of blessing in disguise. it does not come with a necessary contingent that kills you. it would be other forces responsible since, in isolation there is no reason that it should necessarily turn out this way.
So if I was a shareholder of Citi from 2006 to 2010, given this blessing, what could I have done to avoid this thing that kills me, while retaining the blessing?


Quote:
youre missing the point. speculating to try make money too is outside of the picture of early receivers benefiting. you keep saying they get the market price but that price is determined by supply and demand and the demand is inflated to those direct sellers.
There's one market, so you can be a direct seller if you wanted to! You're the earlier receiver of the money. If you looked at everyone's balance sheet at the end of the day, the money went from the fed's account to your bank account.


Quote:
m0 is the only thing that effects aggregate spending. yes the higher m's can effects prices, but total spending for the most part is entirely m0.
This is complete nonsense, but if prices are affected, then that's all that matters. Are you denying that prices can move up first only to have the increase in M0 to follow? Isn't this exactly what happened during the 2003-2010? Growth in asset prices and effective money supply, a collapse in leverage, followed by massive M0 growth to support prices that were based on previous growth in effective money supply. In short, prices moved ahead of M0 growth.


Quote:
if you think about it, the reason the highers m's get destroyed, is because they are attempting to actualize this money. it cant really be spent.
Sure they can - they can use the debt instrument itself to pay for things, instead of converting it to cash first! And the money can move around around much faster to pay for things. And everyone can keep a lower cash balance!


Quote:
since banks are forced to draw against scarce reserves, it is really these reserves that determine the ultimate level of spending.
Why can't this level of fear change? Here's one way to think about this: M0 at any point in time is actually unbounded, because we can imagine that the Fed has alreaday printed, say, 1 gazillion dollars, only they just haven't bothered to spend it to acquire assets. But whatever the Fed hasn't used cannot affect prices, correct? So even though the total amount of money in the system is 1 gazillion dollars more in one system, as opposed to the other, economically, they are equivalent.

So M0 is not really the total amount of money in the system, but the total amount of money in the system MINUS whatever the Fed has. But what stops other agents from acting the same way with cash they have? Obviously they can't print money, but they can withdraw it. So if I withdraw, say 200 billion dollars from the system, and the Fed doesn't print money to compensate for this, M0 remains constant, yet there's a lot less money to go around and prices will drop! Conversely, if I go from having withdrawn this money to injecting it back into the system, the system has more money to go around, even though M0 remains constant. So prices and spending can move dramatically without any change in M0.

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1
Also lol again at Flywtf snuggeling up to PB which just proves he is afflicted by anti AC ideological knee jerk blindness because PBs position is just as if not more so antithetic to FLWwtf's views but he cant see it just because PB is arguing against an AC poster boy.
I don't think Fly's and my views on most things are very far apart at all. Maybe if you get into something like role of religion in society, but definitely not on economic policy.
10-06-2010 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
I'm a dick to them because they think they've figured it out(enough to be patronizing to PB!) when they have absolutely no grasp of the situation, I wouldn't be a dick to someone who admits they don't know. Why would you know? This is complex, high level stuff, and it's boring. I didn't know about this stuff until I took like a 400 level undergraduate economics class.

It's too complicated to easily explain in forum posts intermingled with people arguing about the definition of rich. I imagine Wikipedia or some college has some websites about it, "money supply" is an economics term of art so Googling for that will prove valuable.

It's not going to be a snap understanding situation, though, but essentially Zygote's "banks force the Fed to increase the money supply" theory betrays like a fundamental misunderstanding of the terms being used. The banks increase the money supply by themselves. The "Austrians" time frame usage in this thread(the fed creates money AFTER banks make them, spenders of that new money have a window BEFORE inflation is priced into assets) is bizarre and very confusing to me.
it is confusing for you, that is true.

here is a portion of something i wrote on the topic:

Quote:
The Myth of Private Money

In addition to money created via the central bank, monetary economics usually extends the discussion to the private money supply or shadow money supply, otherwise known as “broad money”. The typical explanation of this extended form of money surrounds fractional reserve banking and how this enables banks and other similar functioning institutions to expand the money supply. In essence, this tacitly deems everyone able to expand the money supply, should they extend credit beyond their reserves. Under this view, commercial banks are usually considered the best tamed of all capable to expand credit because of uniquely tight credit-extension government and central bank oversight, the presence of reserve requirements, and other regulatory influences. In particular it has been argued throughout the current credit crisis that private unregulated firms, especially those in the shadow banking system, were responsible for the overt money creation, not the government run central bank or even, for the most part, not the highly scrutinized commercial banks either. This is the prevailing view, or myth as we shall see, that must be dispelled to solve the problems of understanding money and its effects.

To expose the myth of the private money supply we must first think about how private firms are supposedly enabled to expand credit and money in the first place.

Fractional reserve banking

The banking practice of loaning deposited funds, which are not adequately reserved in kind by another source, is knows as fractional reserve banking. This is normally discussed as the culprit of private money creation and is used by central banks and economists globally via broad money measures in research and policy implementation.[] Contrary to the idea that this process expands the actual money supply, this paper argues rather that fractional reserve banking leads to what I call an expansion in the superficial money supply or fraudulent money supply. Let see why:

Situation

Assume Bank A has a deposit from Joe for $100 and holds $10 on reserve while loaning the remaining $90 to Sam. In this case we have seemingly created a $90 expansion of the money supply relative to the start of the example. This is because Joe has an unlimited demand to $100 in the form of a deposit receipt while Sam has an equally unlimited but more direct claim to the $90 cash he has been lent. As a result, we see the initial $100 deposit balloon to money claims as large as $190, assuming a 10% reserve.

Analysis

Here is the difficulty with this supposed private expansion story, however. What if Joe and Sam attempt to spend their claims to money in full simultaneously, in effect forcing their outstanding claims to be realized? We now realize a $10 reserve simply cannot cover the full $100 in claims against the bank from Joe while the other $90 is invested in an outstanding loan. As a result, the bank will be forced into bankruptcy causing the claims against it to be reduced in proportion to the initial money supply in order to return solvency.

Another way of seeing the need for the money supply to return to its base is to assume Sam takes the $90 he is lent and deposits it back in the bank. Sam now has a $90 receipt for claims to money while Joe retains a $100 receipt for money and the bank provisions $100 on reserve given their new $90 deposit being added to their already $10 sitting in reserve. Now, the bank can lend 90% of their new deposit out again and keep expanding to the technical limit of 10 times the initial amount, per the money multiplier, but this is beyond the point of this paper. What is important is if both try spending their money simultaneously there is only a $100 proverbial pie for them to get pieces of. No more than $100 can ever be spent. Or, in other words, no more than the initial real money funds can ever be spent. This remains unchanged regardless how much expansion the bank takes on. If more spending than this initial amount is attempted the bank will go bankrupt and claims are reduced until the initial money supply is restored. There is no period in time where this so-called private money expansion can work as effective money and this is why it is only superficial or fraudulent in nature.

What makes “private money creators” different from their public counterparts is the government central bank can literally write and fill cheques directly against themselves. These injections are easily accepted as they are legal tender for bank reserves, payments of debts within the nation, among other incentives that influence the acceptance of Federal Reserve obligations in exchange for securities and assets.[] Neither commercial banks, nor any other private institution has the legal privilege of filling cheques against themselves, which is an essential feature for real new money creation. The cheques commercial banks seemingly write against themselves to expand money are, somewhat transparently, really cheques against other money deposits, not themselves. They draw down on existing money, rather than creating new money. This creates a unique problem for private institutions in terms of money creation by exposing them to the risk of failure which a central bank never faces. The money a private bank creates, unlike a central bank, can never really take effect because its realization will simultaneously draw the bank to failure and the destruction of the superficial private money expansion. A central bank, on the other hand, never faces structural failures so its money can successfully enter the system without a feedback problem.

Those who claim to discover a shadow money supply created by private entities forget to ask: what makes the debt/obligations of certain institutions capable of trading at or near par with Federal Reserve notes? The answer is simply the implicit or explicit guarantee of such debt from the central bank. Therefore, the private debts are not really money themselves, it is only because they are proxy debts of the central bank or likely to be so, that makes them tradable at or near par with Federal Reserve notes.
from another part

Quote:
Subsidizing Fractional Reserve Banking

In practice we seem to witness fractional reserve banking proceeding over long periods of time without much failure and it certainly appears from some points of view like the expansion of banks has had meaningful economic effects without bringing about their failure. In short, while this is true, it’s only made possible from public subsidization of the fractional reserve banking system. The robust banking system this fosters has some self-fulfilling characteristics, but without subsidization the fabric could not sustain over extended time in an actively fluctuating economy. To delve further, this subsidization comes in two meaningful manners: federal deposit insurance and central bank facilities.

FDI

Federal deposit insurance is a program issued from the FDIC that provides subsidized insurance rates to banks in exchange for the federal government standing behind their deposits up to a limit. This insurance is used to keep depositors at ease and deter them from exercising their demand receipts to move money from less safe banks to more safe banks. A bank with federal deposit insurance is not significantly different than another with the same federal deposit insurance, regardless of their respective safety independent of the insurance, from the perspective of a depositor’s safety. In this way banks are freed from the check and balance of depositor flows moving to more safe banks while punishing the less safe group as withdrawals pile on them. In all, depositors become uninterested in scrutinizing bank behavior because they can always stand behind their insurance safety. Depositors will rationally hold demand receipts from any insured institution at par with any other and with cash.

CB Facilities

Central bank facilities are created to improve the flow of funds in banking business practice by subsidizing the maturity mismatch banks make a business of participating in. Basically banks borrow short and liquid from depositors, i.e. depositors can take claim as they please, and invest long, long-term and illiquid to earn an interest rate spread. The central bank is seen as an essential feature to keep this process alive by making this maturity and liquidity mismatch disappear somewhat. The central bank accomplishes this by providing meta-market liquidity financing against the bank’s less liquid assets, and ensuring reserve levels are adequate for overnight bank funding enabling banks to meet redemption claims, by pumping new money into reserves during the presence of any funding shortfall. For the most part, this prevents commercial banks from experiencing general cash flow problems and allows their business model to succeed over long periods despite the solvency risks they structurally expose themselves to.

As an example, the shadow banking system collapse in the recent economic crisis occurred largely because of a lack of these central bank support mechanisms which forced the remains of this system to convert to commercial banks and for central bank support to extend beyond traditional players to include parts of the shadow system. []
In these senses, fractional reserve banking that extends for long term periods always does so with the cooperation of the public authorities. The private firms don’t create money; rather they create the temptation for the central bank to create money in response or anticipation to the crisis that can otherwise be expected to follow.

Government’s Implied Backstop

When commercial banks or shadow banks expand their balance sheet via fractional reserve loans under the presence of government support, whether explicit or implicit, they are in effect indirectly expanding real money to some degree. This occurs because the increase in private money increases the magnitude of the implied government backing of the gap between required reserves and outstanding uninsured deposits or other liabilities and/or the explicit guarantee of the gap between required reserves and the amount owed to insured deposits less the amount the government reserves for this backing. In addition to depositors, short term creditors of large internetworked institutions, among other politically sensitive creditors, are also often priced into this group via the implied government guarantee.
The fact of an increasing support from government to back stop new private endeavors is obvious in the explicit government backing of the gap between required reserves and outstanding insured deposits, but, less clearly, holds true most often even for expansion into non-government-insured territory due to the strength of implied guarantees which emerge. We have seen this in practice during the present crisis as deposit insurance has expanded to include formerly uninsured deposits, and creditors of politically important institutions have been made whole. Overall, the increase in these government backstops is the only sense in which we can say real money has effectively expanded when private firms choose to expand superficial money. Therefore, focusing on private firms is an indirect means to the true source; extensions in net government liabilities.

To appreciate the strength of these backings, we must realize there is no coincidence that central banks support the initial expansion from private institutions they oversee, whether outright or via neglect, and always come to the rescue of collapsing superficial money by introducing fresh real money to fill the gap necessary for bank survival. The central bank, its board of governors, and its monetary policy setting board, the FOMC, has the intrinsic function of maintaining fractional reserve banking against the inherent crisis that can be faced and this is the board responsible for the fractional reserve entitlement in the first place, albeit to a limit. In the case of bank-like institutions which the Federal Reserve does not directly oversee, shadow banks, their rescue is highly likely to come about as well in order to protect the non-shadow system from the negative corollary effects that typically arise. Even if the protection is granted by creating more reserves for the traditional commercial banks rather than directly towards the shadow system, the net effect of shadow bank superficial money expansion is the creation of more real money.

In addition to the underemployment risks the Federal Reserve attempts to mitigate, price stability is the other aspect of the dual-mandates of the central bank’s board, and one might argue the central bank will put aside systemic risks to full employment when price stability is threatened. However, anytime superficial money is being destroyed, price stability is said to have deflationary pressures, giving room and guidance for the central bank to increase money proper to fill the destroyed money’s place and maintain systemic and price stability with a single stone. Any time the needs rise for real money to cover superficial money holdings, demand for base money is said to increase, so the central bank supplying new funds is considered a mechanism to provide the funds necessary to meet the new demands and thereby maintain overall stability. This is not actually a benign process, however, as will be seen in the upcoming section on inflation and deflation.
10-06-2010 , 05:18 PM
I'd point out that despite what you guys really, really, really want to have(a discussion about how a shadowy cabal runs the Fed and screws regular 'mericans out of their hard earned wages, p.s. any resemblance between this and the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory that is EXACTLY THE SAME is pure coincidence, you read about your theory on the most trustworthy of paleoconservative blogs), PB and I are talking descriptive finance and economics.

We don't have "views" on this, like I have my own personal idiosyncratic definition of M2 and I think most of California uses bottle caps for currency and others disagree. There's the way it actually works, and people can either understand that or be wrong.
10-06-2010 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
So if I was a shareholder of Citi from 2006 to 2010, given this blessing, what could I have done to avoid this thing that kills me, while retaining the blessing?
there is no universal or objective answer to this. each case is different.

Quote:
There's one market, so you can be a direct seller if you wanted to! You're the earlier receiver of the money. If you looked at everyone's balance sheet at the end of the day, the money went from the fed's account to your bank account.
this is just patently false.

also what are you arguing here? that inflation does not have redistributive effects as money is seen by me as non-neutral in practice? Or even it does, anyone can take advantage of it?

Quote:
This is complete nonsense, but if prices are affected, then that's all that matters. Are you denying that prices can move up first only to have the increase in M0 to follow? Isn't this exactly what happened during the 2003-2010? Growth in asset prices and effective money supply, a collapse in leverage, followed by massive M0 growth to support prices that were based on previous growth in effective money supply. In short, prices moved ahead of M0 growth.
ya i agree with this i dont know why you think what i said is complete non sense though. what your saying fits perfectly well with what i said.

Quote:
Sure they can - they can use the debt instrument itself to pay for things, instead of converting it to cash first! And the money can move around around much faster to pay for things. And everyone can keep a lower cash balance!
the debt instruments pays a balance out of the banks assets/reserves. they can only pay out as much as they have to pay out. they can't issue infinite debt with finite reserves. their ability to avoid default implies that can only spend what they have. if they spend anywhere outside of their bank, others will want to be transfered the underlying reserves.

Quote:
Why can't this level of fear change? Here's one way to think about this: M0 at any point in time is actually unbounded, because we can imagine that the Fed has alreaday printed, say, 1 gazillion dollars, only they just haven't bothered to spend it to acquire assets. But whatever the Fed hasn't used cannot affect prices, correct? So even though the total amount of money in the system is 1 gazillion dollars more in one system, as opposed to the other, economically, they are equivalent.
the likelihood of the money being released does effect the system's pricing.

Quote:
So M0 is not really the total amount of money in the system, but the total amount of money in the system MINUS whatever the Fed has. But what stops other agents from acting the same way with cash they have? Obviously they can't print money, but they can withdraw it. So if I withdraw, say 200 billion dollars from the system, and the Fed doesn't print money to compensate for this, M0 remains constant, yet there's a lot less money to go around and prices will drop! Conversely, if I go from having withdrawn this money to injecting it back into the system, the system has more money to go around, even though M0 remains constant. So prices and spending can move dramatically without any change in M0.
i agree prices can be effected without changes in m0. mostly because the higher m's change behavior and perceptions. i dont deny this. but the actual facts of the full mobilization of spending change only with m0 for the most part.
10-06-2010 , 06:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zygote
there is no universal or objective answer to this. each case is different.
So there's no universal answer to who benefits from inflation and who doesn't and each case is different?


Quote:
this is just patently false.

also what are you arguing here? that inflation does not have redistributive effects as money is seen by me as non-neutral in practice? Or even it does, anyone can take advantage of it?
Explain? If the Fed buy t-bills from a dealer and to balance this out, the dealer buys t-bills from you, didn't you effectively sell the treasury to the Fed and get the fresh taste of that newly minted money? In fact this is all that the dealer does - make a market by being a buyer to prospective sellers and a seller to prospective buyers, while keeping a balanced book and charging nominal fees as well as bid-ask spreads.


Quote:
ya i agree with this i dont know why you think what i said is complete non sense though. what your saying fits perfectly well with what i said.
Then your idea that price inflation cannot happen ahead of M0 growth is nonsense. You were trying to refute this "prices in various sectors can under/over-adjust to fed-induced inflation ahead of time, making it difficult to pinpoint who benefits" with this bizarre idea that M0 growth precedes all price adjustments. But if price adjustments can happen in all sorts of directions ahead of fed action, then even those who get the fresh taste of the newly minted money may use the money to buy something at an already-adjusted price! In fact, on average, all prices (of durable goods and investment assets) are adjusted. Why wouldn't they be?


Quote:
i agree prices can be effected without changes in m0. mostly because the higher m's change behavior and perceptions. i dont deny this. but the actual facts of the full mobilization of spending change only with m0 for the most part.
What on earth do actual facts of the full mobilization of spending changes mean?
10-06-2010 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
I'd point out that despite what you guys really, really, really want to have(a discussion about how a shadowy cabal runs the Fed and screws regular 'mericans out of their hard earned wages, p.s. any resemblance between this and the anti-Semitic conspiracy theory that is EXACTLY THE SAME is pure coincidence, you read about your theory on the most trustworthy of paleoconservative blogs), PB and I are talking descriptive finance and economics.

We don't have "views" on this, like I have my own personal idiosyncratic definition of M2 and I think most of California uses bottle caps for currency and others disagree. There's the way it actually works, and people can either understand that or be wrong.
"I think when it gets confused, it kind of runs home to Mama."

Nobody is disputing what the definition of M2 is. But I will admit, the "I'm not actually going to call you antisemitic but I'm just going to make some vague points about some tinfoil hat wearers who hate jews" bit is a nice touch. Kudos.
10-06-2010 , 06:27 PM
pvn, what is the definition of M2?
10-06-2010 , 06:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
pvn, what is the definition of M2?
What I'm somewhat curious about is - I mean I have my explanations, but still - deep inside, do you guys (that is, Zygote, pvn, not Fly) not understand that you simply don't know what you're talking about? You guys are struggling to comprehend the very basic mechanics, let alone higher-level stuff. It's like some guy who doesn't even quite know the basic rules of hold'em trying to lecture a long-time pro about strategy. You guys seem to be so deep in the dark that you almost believe that the level of understanding you have (word-association, vague metaphors and random stuff you made up to fill in the gaps in understanding) is the only kind of understanding anyone can have. I mean, there are actual people who actually work in these things. There are actual people who work at the Fed, at Treasury desks, etc. Has it occurred to you that these people may have a slightly better understanding of what's going on?
10-06-2010 , 07:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
So there's no universal answer to who benefits from inflation and who doesn't and each case is different?
there is a universal dimension i outlined before. in that the early receiver benefit blah blah blah

Quote:
Explain? If the Fed buy t-bills from a dealer and to balance this out, the dealer buys t-bills from you, didn't you effectively sell the treasury to the Fed and get the fresh taste of that newly minted money? In fact this is all that the dealer does - make a market by being a buyer to prospective sellers and a seller to prospective buyers, while keeping a balanced book and charging nominal fees as well as bid-ask spreads.
certainly not directly. clearly the dealer was an intermediary. but yes, if i bought a treasury and i am able to sell it to the fed, even through a dealer, then the treasury sellers are getting more action than it deserved at the particular time and fetching a higher price than it would have had the demand been lower. i might still lose though overall if i bought the tresaury at too a high a price from the get go. had the fed decided to reneg and not buy the treasury i would have been in a bad situation too.

Quote:
Then your idea that price inflation cannot happen ahead of M0 growth is nonsense. You were trying to refute this "prices in various sectors can under/over-adjust to fed-induced inflation ahead of time, making it difficult to pinpoint who benefits" with this bizarre idea that M0 growth precedes all price adjustments. But if price adjustments can happen in all sorts of directions ahead of fed action, then even those who get the fresh taste of the newly minted money may use the money to buy something at an already-adjusted price! In fact, on average, all prices (of durable goods and investment assets) are adjusted. Why wouldn't they be?
prices adjust because people mistakenly take bank credit at par with cash but forget to realize it is subject to discounting in the future (unless the fed intervenes). fiduciary media cannot be spent in excess of reserves so reserves condition the quantity of spending possible. the existence of fiduciary media allows some to believe their balances are higher than otherwise so it changes their spending patterns. in this way it can effect prices by changing the distribution of funds. there are limits to what can be done here and the prices can only change within peoples capacity. this capacity as whole, for the most part, grows only from the fed though. people are limited in their ability to adjust the whole growth of the money supply into prices. only the money holder can do so by mobilizing it.

Quote:
What on earth do actual facts of the full mobilization of spending changes mean?
see above

      
m