As someone who has two children I can tell virtually nothing about childcare is open to automation. Children's videos have existed since forever, but evidence shows that they are a poor substitute for one on one interaction, which compared to consumer goods is prohibitively expensive. An amazon Alexa can cost 200 dollars and last a decade but at a bare minimum of 10 dollars an hour 200 dollars will get you half a week of a child's 5 years of pre- kindergarten care's needs. In fact, childcare is nearly the number one expense of a young parents, almost above a mortgage or car payment.

Do i think government economists in multiple countries are faking inflation figures. No.

Things i do think.

1. Economic ortbodoxy is very slow to change.
2. Government economists tend to be behind even this slow curve
3. Being heavily invested on a system built on 30 years of doing the same thing every year makes you less likely to challenge those assumptions.
4. When something is very difficult or impossible to measure (like rapid quality changes in tech or healthcare) and you therefore need to make judgement calls ( that you can dress up however you like) you are not going to land at putcomes that result in a major change to your model. I.e. literally no economist is going to build a model saying GDP per head has gone up 2000% because we now all have the equivalent of an million dollar IBM super computer from the 1990s in our pockets.
5. When things are difficult and complicated, people in general, and governments in particular, are going to choose the simple option. Especially if that means they are hitting target.

Like. We only have to look to 2008 to see multiple government institutions marching off a cliff because things had changed too fast and the reality was not politically palitable.

one weird thing this makes me think of is that in all developed countries 2 children is now above average. I wouldnt rule it out completely but i dont think ill ever have a kid and i think this is a growing phenomenon of our time people having less kids. perhaps because the middle class is being hollowed out. just some thoughts.

I am not a parent, but i did spend three years living with my sister and young nephews.

Just spit balling here. But things like.

1. Changing a nappy.
2. Reading practice.
3. Food prep.
4. Cleaning up, laying out toys and games.
5. Teaching.

Are all open to some kind of automation (although not for many years with current tech). Even more so if you look at multipliers and/or remote interaction.

I.e. some combination of AI for the simpler stuff, trained teachers in a call centre somewhere picking up a bunch of the interaction at a low cost, and a trained professional onsite supported by a bunch of clever robotics doing the physical grunt work, and you could have a much lower teacher to child ratio.

Of course you will probably just see expectations rise and more high value face time will ve required. I.e. childcare got a lot easier with washing machines, vacuum cleaners and microwaves, but people are now spending more time with their kids, not less.

I doubt reading comprehension is your strong suit but rugby never implied Quantitative Easing was a new thing but instead that it would become a new buzzword by pundits on TV. By saying it was something people should "brush up on" he implies it has existed for some time.

Missed the goodwill hunting clip on first read. Amazing. Love that movie.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/econ...ist-explains-1

.

• QE in the US ended in October 2014. (Closer to three than five years...)
• The EU is thinking about ending QE this year, but as of now, seems to be ongoing.
• The UK continued until 2017.
• Japan and Switzerland are (as of a few months ago at least) continuing with QE with no plans to end it.
• The USA has 4.5 trillion in assets from the three QE programs, the UK about 450 billion pounds...

But yeah... this is all old news, nothing that we need to think about here.

--

Smugness, wrongness, and short content free posts are a terrible look for you mate, maybe time to step away for a while.

The last round of QE began in 2012. So my statement is factual. If you cannot even fathom why I am not pulling ~5 years out of thin air, you really should stop and take a look at yourself. You don't bother researching. You call me smug, but all you can do is cherrypick articles to reaffirm your confirmation biases. Seriously, you're being a pissant instead of actually communicating like an adult.

- link

And btw the lag from QE would've already emerged in 2014. Which is going to go on 4 years shortly.

Also, you have whined about orthodoxy in economics, but I guarantee you have fk all clue what actual is being taught in classrooms (you're an illiterate who relies on opinions of people you read) and advancements in theories in the past thirty years. You throw around stupid statements like government agencies have some sort of need to fudge data like a goldbug would say about the Fed, or some other anti-govt conspiracy slinger. That's sure a good look. You're anti-intellectual.

You. QE obviously isnt relevent now. Its five years since the last round.

Me. Um. It ended just over 3 years ago in the US, and is ongoing/more recent in most major economies.

You: ha. Its started 5 years ago. Thats what i meant. You are so dumb.

Me: sigh. Okay.

You know people can actually read the words you write? You are making a fool of yourself.

Thread needs more incorrect adios takes.

Prop bet?

It's all fun and games until the kid has a blowout and your diaper changing robot tracks **** all over the house.

By the time AI can have a productive interaction with a toddler, we'll all be out of work and have plenty of time to raise our own kids.

So much of dealing with children is subtle, contextual, and visual in nature. We're many many decades from nannybots.

Paul D is correct, rugby is wrong and seems to be a little unhinged.

Inflation isn't hard to measure. You select a basket of goods and track prices year to year. There are multiple inflation indices you can pick from. I believe the Fed mostly uses PCEPI (Personal Consumption Expenditures) rather than your run-of-the-mill CPI. It gets much more advanced from there, they don't just google the PCE rate and use that for the backbone of their analysis.

Inflation is like unemployment measurements, the context you're using it in matters. If you think the government is "fudging" the numbers than this conversation is pointless and over.

"technology" isn't included because it's already priced into the PCE. "technology" affects what's included. PC or phone purchases aren't included because they're a very small portion of what you spend your income on.

Forbes, CNBC, etc. aren't valid sources btw.

I for one am shocked that "neoliberal" thinks economics is easy.

I don't recall making that statement.

The richest Americans have been hoarding all the wealth for three generations now. That excess has to go into SOMETHING, so I'd expect we're just going to hop from one speculative bubble to the next for the rest of our lifetimes.

FWIW my Libertarian friend is chicken-littling bigly about inflation these days and is convinced The Crash is just around the corner.

The Fed and a lot of other countries haven't been able to hit their inflation targets for a while.