Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich
Just based on what I've read so far I'd say holding FL's a bigger dog than TN and we're not even into the massive holds needed or needing to flip TX. Even with a giant blue wave, they can still lose say MT/ND or so. *shrugs* Not that I'm an expert it's just Nelson looks like he's getting his ass kicked atm. TN has a R candidate that isn't popular for a R there vs the most popular D ever. That alone can move that needle something like 5 points there (I pulled that number out of my ass but it's non zero) vs general.
In the trump cycle polls don't matter much right now other than seeing where the money is going to go. sometimes the polls do line up from now in nov and sometimes they're pretty far off and in this cycle, **** that op ed is gonna be forgotten about in two weeks because more crazy is gonna happen.
The last two polls out of FL have it tied, despite Scott massively outspending Nelson. Nelson has a lot more cash on hand for the closing stretch.
My personal take is that Nelson is a flip at worst, and Bredesen is a dog.
Ds are big dogs to take the senate but TN is such a red state that if it moves enough to put a D in the senate, even a popular ex governor, then most of those other races have also moved enough for D incumbents to hold and Ds to take AZ and NV.