A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread - Page 7 - Politics and Economics

How the special elections could predict the midterms

interactive graphic for the house not senate

cliffs: if the midterms reflect the special elections, republicans would likely lose 100 seats

Literally rock hard if true.

08-20-2018 , 07:54 AM

#152

Elbow Jobertski

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 1,092

Don Blankenship is gearing up to sue to challenge the sort loser law and get on the WV senate ballot as the Constitutional Party candidate.

The thing that makes this really interesting is that WV doesn't have a state supreme court right now because two justices resigned in disgrace and the other three have all been impeached and are awaiting trial in the senate.

08-22-2018 , 11:41 PM

#153

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 74,260

Wow, this is one impressive response:

08-23-2018 , 05:01 PM

#154

cuserounder

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Speaking of Beto, the latest Marist/NBC poll has him down 49-45 among registered voters with a MOE of +/- 3.8.

08-27-2018 , 12:22 PM

#155

Jack Bando

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

Speaking of Beto, the latest Marist/NBC poll has him down 49-45 among registered voters with a MOE of +/- 3.8.

Emerson has Beto -1 with 4.4 MOE today.

08-27-2018 , 03:56 PM

#156

ScreaminAsian

For President

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 33,333

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/defaul...aug2018-pr.pdf

cruz 38

beto 37

undecided 21

other 4

08-27-2018 , 04:06 PM

#157

AllTheCheese

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That's a bad poll imo. Never trust a poll that has 25% of people not committed to voting for either the D or R two months before an election.

08-27-2018 , 05:26 PM

#158

cuserounder

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

That's a bad poll imo. Never trust a poll that has 25% of people not committed to voting for either the D or R two months before an election.

Yeah, I agree. All the undecided/other seems way too high. One interesting thing is that poll has him winning 35-54 year olds pretty handily, which I'm guessing is a huge deal for a Democrat in Texas.

08-27-2018 , 06:12 PM

#159

Trolly McTrollson

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Cruz still at 68% on Predictit.

08-28-2018 , 12:23 PM

#160

ecriture d'adulte

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 5,912

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

Yeah, I agree. All the undecided/other seems way too high. One interesting thing is that poll has him winning 35-54 year olds pretty handily, which I'm guessing is a huge deal for a Democrat in Texas.

I think it’s pretty standard. My dad says he hasn’t seen a single ad yet and he lives in the type of suburban district outside one of the 3 big metro areas that will be crucial for whatever side wins. The bad news for Beto is that the undecided are probably 55%+ conservative or lean conservative. If he can keep the margin under 5 as the undecideds shrink to single digits he has a shot. But that’s gonna be really hard.

Last edited by ecriture d'adulte; 08-28-2018 at 12:33 PM.

08-28-2018 , 12:33 PM

#161

AllTheCheese

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All other polls of that race have a much higher commitment level than 75%, so no, not standard. Even polls from May and June have more voters stating a clear preference.

08-28-2018 , 01:10 PM

#162

Namath12

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It's going to tilt me over the ****ing edge if Rick Scott becomes our next senator

08-28-2018 , 01:21 PM

#163

ecriture d'adulte

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 5,912

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

All other polls of that race have a much higher commitment level than 75%, so no, not standard. Even polls from May and June have more voters stating a clear preference.

Nah, those polls are misleading because they are still just of registered voters and count leaners for one of the candidates. I just looked at one and it had language basically saying pick one even if you aren’t committed. This is especially bad in Texas because voter turn out is very low and it probably leads the nation in shift to one party when you go from registered voters to actual voters.

The polls with high undecideds are actually better in terms of showing what is going to happen as we go from registered voter polls to likely voter polls.

08-28-2018 , 03:49 PM

#164

goofyballer

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Ted Cruz trying to make it a referendum on standing for the anthem

This ad is actually moderately fair to Beto's remarks, and doesn't trigger me at all, which tells me it's probably not very effective

08-28-2018 , 07:08 PM

#165

m_reed05

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Namath12

It's going to tilt me over the ****ing edge if Rick Scott becomes our next senator

Rick Scott has raised $31m, $21m of his own money. And spent $28m so far as a blitz. He has $3m on hand.

Nelson has raised $20m, spent $6m, and has $14m on hand.

There isn't a chance in hell this race gets to be out of hand to the point democrats give up on it.

It's going to be a close race. Scott opted for a blitz strategy. Nelson playing a little longer game. I have no idea which is better. It probably depends on how much more of his own money Scott is willing to plow into the race.

I still think Nelson is a slight favorite despite polls.

08-29-2018 , 01:13 AM

#166

cuserounder

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The fact that Rick Scott is ahead is terrifying. I thought Nelson would have a pretty easy time of it, given the national climate and incumbency in a swing state.

Rick Scott is 65 years old. If he wins, there's a pretty high likelihood that we're looking at 3-4 terms of Rick Scott as a US Senator (given the strength of incumbency), along with a strong presidential run in 2024.

This mother****er turned the water green.

08-29-2018 , 05:22 PM

#167

goofyballer

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Sound on:

08-31-2018 , 05:22 PM

#168

goofyballer

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09-01-2018 , 10:54 PM

#169

aarono2690

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Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,870

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

What is causing this?

Was he a popular governor? Latino voters dropping the ball, as usual, on us? Did Bill Nelson finger blast a young boy?

Someone explain this. In b4 "money". People actually see political ads and go, "I had no idea who to vote for, but this Rick guy has a TON of ads. Gotta vote for him!"

09-01-2018 , 11:50 PM

#170

AllTheCheese

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He is a popular governor. Net approval around +20 iirc. Also, ~100% name recognition in FL. And yes, money. Why do you think people buy ads, just for the lulz?

09-02-2018 , 12:36 AM

#171

cuserounder

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Scott polls at 82% favorability among Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida after the hurricane. He visited there a lot and has courted their votes more than Nelson.

He has better name recognition and he's been a popular governor for most of his tenure. He's created a lot of jobs, and I guess a lot of Florida voters don't care about the environment or his grifting.

Last edited by cuserounder; 09-02-2018 at 01:04 AM. Reason: Clarified that it's 82% favorability, not 82-18 over Nelson.

09-02-2018 , 12:49 AM

#172

chuckleslovakian

LYNCH DURRON597

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 35,894

Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

Scott polls at 82% among Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida after the hurricane. He visited there a lot and has courted their votes more than Nelson.

He has better name recognition and he's been a popular governor for most of his tenure. He's created a lot of jobs, and I guess a lot of Florida voters don't care about the environment or his grifting.

WAAF

09-02-2018 , 01:11 AM

#173

d10

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Quote:

Originally Posted by cuserounder

Scott polls at 82% favorability among Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida after the hurricane. He visited there a lot and has courted their votes more than Nelson.

He has better name recognition and he's been a popular governor for most of his tenure. He's created a lot of jobs, and I guess a lot of Florida voters don't care about the environment or his grifting.

I've courted more PR votes than Nelson. His complete disinterest in PR and Hispanic voters in general is mindblowing for a FL Democrat.

09-02-2018 , 01:14 AM

#174

aarono2690

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,870

[PHP][/PHP]

Quote:

Originally Posted by AllTheCheese

He is a popular governor. Net approval around +20 iirc. Also, ~100% name recognition in FL. And yes, money. Why do you think people buy ads, just for the lulz?

Just blows my mind there are brain dead voters who are not alligned with a party/philosophy and who are pulled to vote for a candidate due to sheer number of ads.

Who the phuck has no opinion on any issue and also does not understand where the two parties stand on the issue? Political ads SHOULD be useless imo, but this would require an informed citizenry.

Again, blows my mind that Carl from Florida would be swayed to vote for Rick Scott simply due to name recognition and ads. If that is the primary reason for your vote then you are a mouth breather.

09-02-2018 , 01:39 AM

#175

StimAbuser

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Quote:

Originally Posted by aarono2690

[PHP][/PHP]

Just blows my mind there are brain dead voters who are not alligned with a party/philosophy and who are pulled to vote for a candidate due to sheer number of ads.

Who the phuck has no opinion on any issue and also does not understand where the two parties stand on the issue? Political ads SHOULD be useless imo, but this would require an informed citizenry.

Again, blows my mind that Carl from Florida would be swayed to vote for Rick Scott simply due to name recognition and ads. If that is the primary reason for your vote then you are a mouth breather.

I don't think the point is to make up anyones mind, its to hammer it into people to turn out to vote. Similar reason McDonalds still runs ads constantly.

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