Manchin voted against the healthcare repeal and tax cuts. Dems need him. This type of authoritarian mindset on this forum has gotta stop, that only works on the right in this country. He's literally the best senator out of WV you can get and you're all lol don't care. Not smart thinking.

This.

The hatred of Manchin ITT is absurd. Yeah he's not great, but do you people really want Morrisey for the next 6 years?

Unless I'm mistaken, Manchin did not announce his vote for Kavanaugh until after the speech by Collins.

Agree.

Yes, it sucks.

Yep. Let Manchin do whatever he needs to do to win.

Totally fine to hate on Democrats who make dumb votes to try to appeal to centrists in states where it's unnecessary or bad strategy.

But yeah, we're never getting someone better than Manchin in WV. Let him keep doing his thing.

In contrast, I think Bredesen going all in for Rapey McRapeface was a terrible move politically. I don’t care what the polling says, just a terrible unforced error. Dude didn’t have a vote and didn’t have to say anything. In contrast, Manchin.

If you want to hate a Democratic senator, there's at least a dozen to hate before you get to Manchin.

Yup, I posted as soon as he did it that it was likely going to blow up in his face. Just a terrible misunderstanding on his part of where a lot of his support was going to come from. Prior to releasing his statement, he was leading in 3 of the last 6 polls and 14 of the last 21. Since the statement, he's trailed in 9 consecutive polls. (Using the 538 adjusted numbers.)

The worst part, as you pointed out, was that it was an unforced error. The clear and obvious play was to say, "I would never support or oppose all of ANY president's nominees for partisan reasons. I would give each one the consideration they deserve. Since I don't have access to all of the information the senators have, I cannot speak to how I would vote in this particular case. I would weigh all of the information and decide."

But it gets worse than that, he wasn't even ASKED about it. He put out a damn statement just because. A colossal error.

Democrats still don’t understand that the mythical persuadable centrist voter does not exist, and it’s killing them.

They do but they're the 5% of old registered democrats who sometimes vote R.

I think the part they don't understand is appealing to them pisses off a much bigger base that thinks like this forum (I don't agree with so and so 100% so I won't vote, which is a common thought process among young people [we were stupid too at that age...]). Republicans will pull that lever for a guy they only agree with 10% as long as the R is there.

I'm also interested in the polls this week, this is about the time the libertarian polling drops to republican votes but there's been a little dem surge. (in NV (!), but also the opposite in AZ (ugh)).

Bredesen was a longshot anyway in TN--I believe the whole anti democrat thought process among R's and olds on kavanaugh did him in rather than his own silly letter of support (that I also agree was an unforced error)

tl'dr this is gonna be one hell of a ride on election day. fwiw, it looks to me like IN/AZ/NV are all flips so gl with MO on the 53/47 side. (538 doesn't have a flip for IN but that's where I think it really is *shrugs*)

a mcsally +7 came out today--a day after a sienma +4 and a tie, a day after sienma +6, they are all over the place in arizona polls. Where do all the old retirees count? Needs to get warm up here another week I guess so they don't leave yet.

I can only come up with six who could compete.

My list is basically Chuck Schumer 12 times. I guess you could sprinkle in a Feinstein and Menendez.

It seems like Menendez should be at the top of everyone's list.

My prediction's: R's take ND, TN, TX
D's take IN, AZ, NV, FL, MT, WV.
MO will be too close to call on election night.

I think my list of contenders was Schumer, Menendez, Feinstein, Donnelly (recent example of racism), Nelson (for being a gazillion years old, a total milquetoast centrist, and not stepping down for a younger candidate) and Heitkamp (for blowing her last shot with the sexual assault victim ad).

I think the only ones I'd rank ahead of Manchin would be Schumer and Menendez, though.

Yeah, this is a really good point.

Another point that is often overlooked: centrists don't usually hold "moderate" views. They hold extreme views that are ideologically inconsistent, like being pro union but also pro life or whatever.

So the worst kind of mistake you can make is trying to appeal to both sides at the same time with half assed moderate positions. You're not winning over centrists with that. Might as well go all the way over to the other side's position occasionally if you want to project a mavericky image.

Yup, plus there are a lot of people who don't vote because they think both sides are the same, neither party is looking out for them, etc... A lot of these voters exist to the left of the Democratic Party, and are being completely ignored by Dems fighting over the tiny chunk of actual undecided moderates.

Further, a lot of people to the right of the Democratic Party would probably be in favor of Medicare for All within, say, 6-10 years of it passing. Just look at polling in the last couple of years on the ACA. This could impact their future voting decisions, thus shifting the Overton Window on healthcare or creating more "moderate" voters who are actually ideologically inconsistent extremists... but creating them out of former GOP voters.

People keep saying this, but at best it's a self-fulfilling prophecy and at worst it's just hogwash. We can't have a Jon Tester or Doug Jones type candidate in WV, both of whom are far better than Manchin? A Beto-style candidate could never make a run? Sherrod Brown is one of the most liberal senators who got elected in a GOP leaning state. Stop punting the football before you give yourself a chance to throw a pass.

What you guys don't seem to understand is that the most conservative Democrat (and vice-versa) has incredible leverage and power in today's political climate. We have to be really careful to who we give that power to. Joe Manchin literally organized a meeting in order to convince Murkowski and Collins to support Kavanaugh. McCaskill is currently out there talking **** about progressive democrats and Bernie. These people are not our friends and will never contribute anything to left policy goals.

Better to sacrifice the seat and find a better candidate next time than to have to rely on these goons.

Yea but it wasn't a political move. These guys are actually speaking their hearts and minds when they do this. Time to pay attention and listen to them.

Just look how much on-going harm Joe Lieberman has done to the party over the last 20 years.

It's been nearly 20 years since Kentucky has had a democratic senator. I would take a Manchin to be a KY senator if I had to.

Lieberman is a ****ing outlier. **** Joe ****ing Lieberman. Seriously just the worst democrat in modern history.

Think about it from a probability standpoint, though. If you replace Manchin with ANY other Democrat, they are losing 98%+ of the time. Yes, even somebody the caliber of Beto. West Virginia is as red as Alabama, and Doug Jones literally needed his opponent to be a pedo to squeak out a victory there.

Manchin is 87% to win per 538. Incumbency still matters, and whatever he's doing, it's working. I'll take 87% Manchin over 2% Doug Jones. When Manchin is gone, if you want the Democrats to run a better candidate there, great, agreed. For now, not smart to make a big deal about it IMO.

Especially in a situation where having 50 senators, the House and the White House in January 2021 may be necessary to save the republic from gerrymandering, voter suppression, etc, going forward. We're dangerously close to not being able to overcome those and the built in disadvantages in the Senate.

By "the next time" Breyer and RBG will likely be gone one way or the other and you will have a 7-2 conservative majority for the next 25 year if you don't beat Trump or get 51 seats in the Senate soon. Trump isn't going to be simple to beat next time or haven't you guys noticed? You better flip the Senate somehow.

Other than being cute, riding a skateboard, and getting arrested for burglary and DUI, what precisely is the "caliber" of Mr. O'Rourke?

What precisely is his claim to fame other than being a well to do kid who was a ****-up and doesn't care much for border enforcement? This is the guy you want to run for President? Cant do any better than this?

who gives a ****? like what kind of ultimately qualifying answer do you expect to get? the guy is a bog standard progressive who advocates bog standard progressive positions. the DNC **** all over him so he has no special affinity to them and his senate campaign is as grassroots as it gets.
he's tall and handsome, and he's eloquent.

idk jerkoff, probably not- seen the field? got some ideas?

i absolutely LOVE barbara lee and ted lieu. are they better choices?