The "bunch of polls" was one firm releasing three different polls from the last few weeks, each of which have had Braun at +4. Obviously you don't like to see him behind in any, but it being one firm is a significant clarification I think, particularly as Donnelly has led in most recent polling. There was also a Donnelly +1 today from another firm.

The Donnely -4 poll is adjusted up to Donnely +1.7 on FiveThirtyEight because of the historical partisan lean of the pollster. Imo, one should never read election poll press releases, unless you're familiar with the pollster's bias.

I honestly just look at this page: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...idterms-header

I guess you have to click through to see the adjustment, I see that now. Good to know.

Seems like 20% is too high. I think they're covering themselves for a possibility of a wave that polls aren't counting (since gillum hit well over his poll in the primary) as some polls really don't take new voters into account.

That said, AZ actually looks okay, TX looks very dead. FL has either scott +1 or nelson +5 polls so which is it.

The other issue with a bunch of polls saying R+whatever is that even if they're skewed, you think their supporters are gonna believe anything other than election rigged for D's b/c polls said R's were gonna win. Sure that's a hell of a difference from 2 years ago when they won with Hillary ahead in the polls but R's don't think like logical people.

The same polling people on the same day of that +16 cramer poll had manchin +16 too. Those seem a little off though I do agree she seems very dead in North Dakota. I think she loses anyway but a yes vote on kav would've made it a fair bit closer at least.

At least it looks like tester's gonna hold even though Gianforte's gonna win that house race. (unless you believe the university of montana poll--which has the biggest blue tsunami ever)

not as good as the first two

Cmon, Ted.

That should be an ad. Trump on Heidi. Cruz on not being a servile puppy for Trump. That picture. C'mon, Ted.

yeah i know, but that was months ago, before gillum pivoted from medicare for all to "healthcare" and breaking his promise of not accepting big donor pac money. bernie showed dems how to fill stadiums in 2016 but they reject it in favor of a handful of billionaires who are the very class of people responsible for trump.

Thing is, Ted is crazy but he's kind of honest. In that lying doesn't come naturally to him and he has like 15 tells when he lies. Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker. When he decides something would benfit him if it were true, it's as good as done in his little three-second window of consciousness. Benefits Trump=true in his mind.

"kind of honest" rofl what the **** did i just read

"trump is a pro at lying and would be great at bluffing" is really just too much

so adept

donald trump is the ****ing jamie gold of poker ainec, lol all the way down to scamming his business partner

Pretty sure Jamie Gold is the Jamie Gold of poker.

you know what i meant

I kinda respect the shame Ted wears whenever he's around Trump. He doesn't hide his beta status.

Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker
Trump is a pro at lying and would be a great bluffer in poker

regarding the last few days of polls

good news is manchin seems reasonably safe, tester still up.

everything else is not good news R's gaining 4 well in play.

This is pretty dumb/misleading phrasing, 538 has Dems gaining 3 (so, 52 D total, taking control with one to spare) at a higher chance than Rs gaining 4

Dems winning TX and TN and everything else vs R's taking down MO/FL/IN/ND and holding everything else odds wise looks like just plain nonsense or there is a HELL of a blue wave coming that hasn't been polled. That R scenario is well within poll margin--that D odds has to go well beyond it.

tl;dr 538 is adding odds assuming that possibility given it's an opposite party election cycle--but it's hard to agree with that assumption given R's are going to show up this year.

I'd appreciate it if you stopped calling me dumb when my statements make more sense based on the data we have, thanks.

You're doing the political punditry HOT TAKE thing, just stop.

Oh, data?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

Go nuts bro, tell us about the data. What you're actually telling us is how the probability of these events feel to you.

Oh I agree, but that’s politics. Desantis similarly doesn’t run that ad showing his kid building a pretend wall anymore and isnt out on the trail stumping with Trump.

If you show up expecting purity you’re gonna be disappointed every single time.

Polls looking good for Nelson

People who don’t vote need their asses beat. I have a few friends who ***** about Trump constantly. I asked them if they plan to vote early this year because it is so easyand their response was they are too busy to vote.

Suck. My. Cock.

I wouldn’t get too worried about polling. Make last minute donations and volunteer, but there’s not much else you can do. Just remember this mood was felt in the VA governor race prior to the election. Everyone thought Ed G. was making this miracle comeback with all that racist bull**** and DEMS were pissed at Ralph for not being able to combat this Republican miracle. Ralph pegged Ed over the table and spit in his face winning by ~9%. I remember feeling hopeless prior to the election too - all this energy for nothing.

Polling can’t capture everything and if fighting to keep a lying rapist off the Supreme Court destroyed our chances then **** it. We went down doing what was right. I just feel like polling is weighted naturally to olds who have time and energy to answer a 10-15 minute phone poll. I can’t think of anyone under 35 who wouldn’t hang up on a pollster.

sigh

538's odds incorporate things other than the polls to calculate odds and my post is purely based on after adjusted polls, from ironically enough 538. There is no poll that says beto will win TX (which has to happen for dems to take the senate), there are many polls that have those R's winning those other races I mentioned. It is a simple conclusion from those polls that means that R's gaining 4 is more likely than Dems taking the senate.

Obviously you FEEL like the odds that the polls are just way wrong is greater than the odds R gain 4 and so does 538's model. You've called me dumb and insisted I was using feelings when I used actual facts so when you don't understand something next time perhaps ask for clarification instead.