Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Politics political discourse

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-30-2018, 04:14 AM   #26
Former DJ
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Southern USA
Posts: 917
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

d10:

I want to add my compliments for a really great OP. Well done, sir!

This is a "macro" factor which is hard to quantify, but I wonder how much of an effect President Trump's favorability/unfavorability ratings might have on these Senate elections?

I'm here in "deep red" Alabama. (I like to joke with out-of-state friends telling them that I'm an endangered species - the only "librul" in the reddest red state in the country!) Admittedly, the election of Democrat Doug Jones over Republican Roy Moore was a bit of a fluke. It was more than a fluke ... If Alabama Republicans had nominated anybody other than Moore - like, for instance, 5th District Congressman Mo Brooks - Doug Jones would (very likely) not have won. (Even with all of Moore's "baggage" the race was pretty close.) So I'm happy with the result, but it was still a fluke. (I suspect when Mr. Jones runs for a full term in 2020, the Alabama GOP will go to great lengths to make sure they don't repeat the mistake they made in nominating a candidate like Roy Moore - even though he has threatened to run again ...)

Trump injected himself into the race. In the closing days of the campaign he publicly announced his support for Mr. Moore - he made no bones about it. He even made a stop in Pensacola, Florida the weekend before the election in order to stump for Moore. Despite Trump's explicit backing, Moore lost anyway. A key factor in Democrat Jones victory turned out to be the heavily African-American vote from the central (so-called "Black Belt") area of the state. Although African-American voters in Alabama make up only a quarter of the registered voters in the state, their vote went heavily for Doug Jones. (Don't know this for absolute certainty, but I seem to recall reading that over 90 percent of Alabama's African-American vote went for Doug Jones.) With a (slim?) majority of the "white" vote probably going to Moore, it can be argued that African-American voters were the deciding factor in putting Doug Jones over the top.

The thing I wonder is how much of that heavy African-American turnout was really an "anti-Trump" vote? Nate Silver and his crew over at Five-Thirty-Eight keep pointing out Trump's approval/disapproval rating. For some time Trump has been running consistently around a 40 percent approval rating and a disapproval rating above 50 percent. (Right now Trump's disapproval rating is 53 percent - according to Nate Silver.) This is a record low approval rating for a President - with the possible exception of Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal. Even at his most unpopular, I don't believe President Obama - or any other President - had numbers that bad going into a mid-term election. A significant proportion of minority voters may have sat out the 2016 election as they weren't as appreciative of Hillary Clinton as they were of President Obama. This is subjective on my part, but after Charlottesville and the comments he's made about NFL players taking the knee during the national anthem, I get the feeling that African-American voters across the country won't be sitting out this election ... they may be highly motivated to go vote against Republican candidates as a way of expressing their disgust with Trump.

So the question boils down to this ... What effect, if any, is Trump's favorable/unfavorable rating having on these Senate races? Are any pollsters in these Senate contests trying to gauge whether or not there is a measurable "anti-Trump" sentiment at play? Expressing it another way, was what happened in Alabama really a fluke - or a not-so-subtle repudiation of Trump?
Former DJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 09:13 AM   #27
Namath12
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Namath12's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Verystable Geniusville
Posts: 50,140
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Field in Minny getting deeper

Namath12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 09:18 AM   #28
eyebooger

 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 38,735
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

An ethics lawyer for the GWB administration? **** off.
eyebooger is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 09:22 AM   #29
dth123451
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 5,872
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

My god that woman in Tennessee. She apparently has been peddling "planned parenthood has a mail order baby parts business" derp for years?
dth123451 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 09:22 AM   #30
Trolly McTrollson
Under your bridges
 
Trolly McTrollson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Winesburg, Ohio
Posts: 23,849
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

G W Bush underling trying to primary the Dems? DNCCC is probably jizzing itself over this.
Trolly McTrollson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 10:46 AM   #31
simplicitus
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
simplicitus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Getting Schwifty
Posts: 9,236
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

I'm sure I disagree with many of his policies, but Richard Painter is a mensch and great Trump critic.




(He wears the same tie because he's a law prof at Univ. of Minnesota)
simplicitus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 11:01 AM   #32
dth123451
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 5,872
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

He was an "ethics lawyer" for GWB and apparently didn't quit. **** that guy
dth123451 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 12:11 PM   #33
ScreaminAsian
For President
 
ScreaminAsian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: DO NOT CONGRATULATE
Posts: 27,404
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

richard painter would be a welcome democratic senator from texas, but for minnesota i think we can do better
ScreaminAsian is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 12:23 PM   #34
eyebooger

 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 38,735
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

It's good that he's speaking out against Trump, but what are his other views? Did he have a sudden 180 in the last 10 years on almost every position?

Even if so, you can't **** up for so long and then have a change of heart and instantly become the face of the opposition. Especially when he's effectively primarying (by my admittedly quick look at her record) a reasonably good senator.

Painter can be an adviser or something like that. Offices like senator should be off-limits to him. Forever.
eyebooger is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 12:27 PM   #35
dth123451
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 5,872
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

As a reminder, the "ethics" within the Bush White House included allowing Dick Cheney to wage war for profit.
dth123451 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 12:31 PM   #36
Trolly McTrollson
Under your bridges
 
Trolly McTrollson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Winesburg, Ohio
Posts: 23,849
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

This is like the Samuel L Jackson character from Django Unchained trying to switch sides at the end.
Trolly McTrollson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 01:21 PM   #37
vaya
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
vaya's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Possible Kill Screen
Posts: 14,819
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Lol any Democrat who wanted to run Franken out of the Senate
vaya is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 09:50 PM   #38
wheatrich
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,559
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Klobuchar isn't safe at all. I think McDaniel is running against Wicker atm but obv could flip or whatever.
wheatrich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 09:56 PM   #39
chuckleslovakian
LYNCH DURRON597
 
chuckleslovakian's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Saving Sinners
Posts: 33,833
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by vaya View Post
Lol any Democrat who wanted to run Franken out of the Senate
When they go low, we go high!
chuckleslovakian is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 10:06 PM   #40
dth123451
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 5,872
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Democrats: gleefully giving the GOP free rolls since forever
dth123451 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 11:16 PM   #41
aarono2690
Pooh-Bah
 
aarono2690's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: "janitor and restroom attendant" MN
Posts: 3,586
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich View Post
Klobuchar isn't safe at all. I think McDaniel is running against Wicker atm but obv could flip or whatever.
Dude, I live in Minnesota. She's safe. She runs the table and spits in your mouth after stepping on your balls every election. Look up prior election maps. She absolutely crushes the state.
aarono2690 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2018, 11:19 PM   #42
aarono2690
Pooh-Bah
 
aarono2690's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: "janitor and restroom attendant" MN
Posts: 3,586
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by eyebooger View Post
It's good that he's speaking out against Trump, but what are his other views? Did he have a sudden 180 in the last 10 years on almost every position?

Even if so, you can't **** up for so long and then have a change of heart and instantly become the face of the opposition. Especially when he's effectively primarying (by my admittedly quick look at her record) a reasonably good senator.

Painter can be an adviser or something like that. Offices like senator should be off-limits to him. Forever.
I want to see his policy positions. I like him as a commentator and Trump ball-buster, but I'll pass on a corporate Dem who is essentially the GOP without "muh Bible" and hating gays.
aarono2690 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2018, 06:59 AM   #43
Former DJ
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Southern USA
Posts: 917
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Here's a really deep dive into the 2018 Senate election courtesy of Nate Silver's Five-Thirty-Eight web site.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...a-better-time/

Democrats are going to need more than a "wave" election to take control of the Senate - they'll need more like a tsunami.
Former DJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2018, 08:52 AM   #44
+rep_lol
El Guapo
 
+rep_lol's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 11,903
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

wow d10 actually made a good post which i read in full

subbed, and going to be volunteering for beto in the dallas area starting next month
+rep_lol is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2018, 03:56 PM   #45
gobbo
Trust the fat man.
 
gobbo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Eating Vegas.
Posts: 15,476
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Depending on how this startup I'm doing is going I may volunteer time or money to jackie rosen.
gobbo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2018, 12:29 AM   #46
d10
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
d10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: I fly better than I drive
Posts: 7,058
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Former DJ View Post
Here's a really deep dive into the 2018 Senate election courtesy of Nate Silver's Five-Thirty-Eight web site.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...a-better-time/

Democrats are going to need more than a "wave" election to take control of the Senate - they'll need more like a tsunami.
I don't like the methodology they used to conclude Democrats need a tsunami. The results since 1992 aren't totally relevant to what will happen in 2018. The candidates are different and the political climate is obviously much different. Whatever correlation does exist isn't going to be very predictive due to the small sample size. It's important to know that it's mostly Democrat seats at risk this election and many of those seats are in red states, but we knew that already.

It's not necessary to bring that into prediction models though. The races in each state are set enough to where you can assign reasonable odds to each and figure out the odds of flipping the Senate from there. I haven't done anything like that yet but considering most races the Democrats need to win are tossups at worst, and a wave that drives out an extra 10% of Democrats in each state would make those tossups near locks, you don't need a tsunami to flip, just a decent strength wave that touches every state. The wave we've seen in special elections is more than strong enough, but still unknown is whether it will hold another 6 months, whether it will apply on a more common election day, and whether it will affect every state.
d10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2018, 04:37 AM   #47
wheatrich
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,559
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aarono2690 View Post
Dude, I live in Minnesota. She's safe. She runs the table and spits in your mouth after stepping on your balls every election. Look up prior election maps. She absolutely crushes the state.
Hillary only beat Trump by +1.5% in 2016. Evan McMullin got 1.8%.

Favored sure, safe = hell no.

fwiw--I still have R 53. Even with the wave it's kinda hard to see 3 of Tester/Mccaskill/Manchin/Heitkamp/Donnelly winning. Obviously Nevada is a must win.

TN race probably the most interesting.

Last edited by wheatrich; 05-02-2018 at 05:06 AM.
wheatrich is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2018, 07:15 AM   #48
eyebooger

 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 38,735
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich View Post
Even with the wave it's kinda hard to see 3 of Tester/Mccaskill/Manchin/Heitkamp/Donnelly winning.
If it's truly "a wave", all 5 of those are winning. If 3 or more of them lose, there is no wave, Ds lose the house too and we are ****ed.
eyebooger is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2018, 09:04 AM   #49
d10
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
d10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: I fly better than I drive
Posts: 7,058
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by wheatrich View Post
Hillary only beat Trump by +1.5% in 2016. Evan McMullin got 1.8%.

Favored sure, safe = hell no.

fwiw--I still have R 53. Even with the wave it's kinda hard to see 3 of Tester/Mccaskill/Manchin/Heitkamp/Donnelly winning. Obviously Nevada is a must win.

TN race probably the most interesting.
Klobuchar is not HRC. HRC ignored Minnesota, Klobuchar lives there. The state likes her and the competition is targeting Franken's seat instead of her obviously locked in seat. I'll offer 10:1 on her reelection if you're confident it's closer to 50:50 though. Up to $5k:$500. Push if she drops out of the race before 11/6.
d10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-05-2018, 03:49 AM   #50
aarono2690
Pooh-Bah
 
aarono2690's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: "janitor and restroom attendant" MN
Posts: 3,586
Re: A Proper 2018 Senate Elections Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by d10 View Post
Klobuchar is not HRC. HRC ignored Minnesota, Klobuchar lives there. The state likes her and the competition is targeting Franken's seat instead of her obviously locked in seat. I'll offer 10:1 on her reelection if you're confident it's closer to 50:50 though. Up to $5k:$500. Push if she drops out of the race before 11/6.

Lol thank you!

Again, Klobochar is safe. If you disagree, you're wrong. Simple as that.
aarono2690 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:40 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ę 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online