Rosen has been hit with a big batch of negative ads lately. A lot of them talk about how California donors are trying to buy a Nevada Senate seat.

Since 2010, Nevada polling seems to underestimate Democrats' strength. So, I'm skeptical until Election Day results come in.

Though, Heller has apparently made real effort to get Hispanic voters. And that may be helping him.


Have there been any stories about the hurricane disabling some voting infrastructure in the panhandle? Or are we far enough out from the election that the impact is negligible?

Panhandle has to be mostly deplorables, right?

That’s ****ing it. I’m running for state house in 2020. These milquetoast mother ****ers can’t even handle their dicks properly to piss. Senate in 2030. Tired of this ****.

YOU CAN’T BEAT HELLER? BLACKBURN? YOU WEAK CENTRIST ****S!

Haven't heard anything about that but various groups are suing the state for LDO refusing to extend the voter registration deadline (also the online system broke and was never fixed afaik)

Yes almost exclusively other than Leon and Gadsden counties.

Not up for election until 2020, but



WaPo:

I wonder what would happen if some kid grabbed a senator's phone from his hands

They wonder too!

Yes, but I think there's a pretty high likelihood that this one is a statistical outlier. 538 has 15 polls on this race since the spring, and nine have been within three points, two more were at four points, and four are 5-7 points. Of the bigger gaps, you had Rosen +5 in March, Rosen +6 in April, and Rosen +5 in August. Heller's largest lead all the way had been 3%. It seems extremely unlikely to me that he's up 7%.

I see one major problem with the Emerson method from diving into their documentation on this poll. I'm not a polling expert, so someone feel free to chime in if this is normal. For their likely voters screen, they did not ask if you are likely to vote... They asked how likely are you to vote - not likely, 50/50, somewhat likely, very likely. They only proceeded with "very likely," responses. My guess is this is going to slant their results towards Republicans.

My guess is that Heller got a bump from the Kavanaugh confirmation, and is ahead by 2-4 points right now. Hopefully the bump subsides by 11/6 and we're looking at a toss up.

Yup, this is consistent with recent polling there. My guess is that Beto actually had it close in September, and the GOP poured a bunch of money in and it worked.

Where are you seeing this? I can't find it.

If this midterm doesn't go well, we need a lot of "normal people," to run for office form the state level on up to the House. Primary challenges to sitting Dems, regular primaries, the whole deal.

He should offer not to file any report if the senator will sit down with him for 15 minutes on camera and give real answers to all of his questions.

https://www.bredesen.com/wp-content/...ll-Memos-3.pdf

I wouldn't put much stock in that. They're probably putting that out there to enhance fundraising. The polling firm only works with Democrats, and there are no details on the polling method or cross tabs. They probably ordered some "polls" that made it look close to push their fundraising over the finish line to have a fighting chance.

That said, there's a chance that the independent polling is wrong because voter turnout models are not capturing the "blue wave," but I think that it is best to just assume they're as accurate as can be expected and that this one was manipulated.

If Heller wins then I'll be surprised if McCaskill/Donnelly etc also don't lose. That was the key seat for dems this cycle. They had to win it.

hi i'm here to see the dems blow it 2 weeks out

oh wow i see we're starting early

Blackburn is going HAM with "Bredesen LURED illegals to Tennessee with free drivers licenses" ads and Bredesen has to do a bunch of dumb "I wasn't even governor when that law was passed" ads. And these aren't even PAC ads, they're real "I'm marsha blackburn and I approve this message" ads.

it's basically like the Fairsley Difference in real life.

Nice state you got there.

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1051997152405118976

McSally really flailing at the end there to get in her canned attack lines. Didn’t come across well.

If they lose 2+ seats, it's a wrap for a long time - even if they take the White House in 2020 they'd be unlikely to take back the Senate, leaving a stalemate that would likely be followed by a red wave midterm in 2022, and leaving the next chance to have all three levers of power in 2024 when they'd be back on this lovely Senate map again and probably with a lot less enthusiasm/energy on the left.

Lol that one's even better than the first. "Maybe up in Canada." Too good. I want that guy's take on Trump in 2020.

Just play the “Donald you’re a snivelling coward, don’t mess with my family!” clip followed by the “Hi I’m Ted Cruz and I’d like to encourage you to vote for Donald Trump” phonebanking clip on loop

Lol, poor White Castle can't catch a break. Imagine if the only famous person who publicly admits to frequenting your restaurants is Ted ****ing Cruz.

man that ad is straight fire on so many levels

Congratulations to the next U.S. Senator from North Dakota, Kevin Cramer.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...ut-permission/

The Democrats really suck at everything. Cramer called the allegations against Kavanaugh absurd, and suggested that maybe he should be confirmed even if they were true, and Heitkamp's campaign couldn't find a way not to **** that up.

Can't believe I just clicked on and linked to Breitbart without realizing it. Saw it on CNN, and that was the first Google News result that wasn't about Heitkamp's apology but rather the original ad.

Liberal biased Google for the win!