verifiable facts and strong gut feelings are things conservatives really seem to struggle differentiating

like he's got a great memory for his feelings on election night, but he's super fuzzy on the numbers he wants to use

I know this is a sore subject for you guys, but probability numbers in the high 90s were scattered all over reputable news agencies leading up to and on election day.

I said 97% only to parrot his post, but here's one that covers that number (98.2, close enough): https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b0e80b02cc2a94

I never mentioned 538, though I'm glad Nate Silver was able to avoid looking like as much of a fool as everyone else did during that election.

I'd say you know better not to compare a 97% on 538 now with a 97% in some other model then and conclude that the 97% now is unreliable, but I'm not actually 97% sure that's true

*poker commentators talk about how big a favorite aces are against kings preflop*

*kings win*

Dude, you suck at this. Nate Silver looked like the polar opposite of a fool. He had Trump at something like 32% to win the night of the election when the betting markets had him at 4-1.

You are obviously terrible at understanding probabilities so I will spell this out: if you had followed Nate's model as gospel, you would have bet Trump at 15% Kelly, and would have increased your bankroll by 60% on the Trump win.

Also, you can go back and look at my post history, I was pretty vocal in calling the "Hillary 98%" people morons before the election.

i was a "hillary 98%" person because i had built up a bunch of undeserved faith in america and humanity in general the previous years

lol that's all gone now, to the delight of inso and awval

lol scaredyted

You were responding to a post in which someone stated that there was a 97 percent chance of that candidate winning on the 538 model.

If it makes you feel any better, I got a guy to give me 15-1 on Trump for $100, then I totally forgot about it and never confirmed, so my idiocy cost me $1500.

At this point I'm dreading going into that booth and voting for Manchin. I may actually vomit, but the alternative is somehow worse on every level. The Mountain Party isn't running a candidate, which is just as well as voting for some Taylor County schmuck who collects granola for a hobby wouldn't do much to stem my rage.

If I wind up having to shake his hand at some pissant local party thing again it's going to be right after my hand has spent a bit of time between the cheeks of my sweaty fat ass. Maybe if he has a reaction he can buy one of those $500 epi-pens from his daughter. **** that guy.

It takes a strong man to rise above pettiness. I'm not a strong man.

xxxxx

I'm just going to say this so maybe I'll stop thinking about it:

I had a weird dream about him back when he was governor. I was in a poker room and was looking for my table and I came across a woman holding a crying baby. So I'm walking past her and I bump into him. He tells me he has some important life advice for me.

"Never hold a baby when you are on tilt."

That one is seared into my memory for some reason. Hopefully if I have another dream about him it will involve zombie Robert Byrd eating his brains.

**** off with your attacks on beto

i'm gonna eat a ****ing ban if i gotta really let words fly

This is a good point, latest polls have TX/TN pretty much dead for dems and NV/MO as tight races but the left keeps talking about Beto who was always a longshot and not enough attention to NV/MO. Or IN or whatever else.

bad polls out today

Cruz +8 (even with the news that Beto had the largest donation quarter for a Senate race ever)
Blackburn +14

these both seem to be dead barring some huge change in the next few weeks

yeah, beto has been fundraising like crazy

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10...inst-ted-cruz/

still a fight well worth fighting even if he loses

Marsha Blackburn winning is just such a disaster. She is absolutely ****ing disgraceful in every way possible. Nice state you’ve got there, the ****ing DEMOCRAT, who didn’t even have a vote, announced for no imaginable reason he’s on team Rapey McDrunk.

I wouldn't be surprised if coming out for Bart actually hurt Bredesen by increasing the likelihood that some of the liberal base just stays home. It's not like they're going to stop calling him a liberal Schumer-Pelosi-Obama-Clinton-Spawn of Satan Democrat because he came out for Boofing Bart.

He's behind and had to throw a hail mary to try to win conservative votes in TN who don't like Marsha/Trump all that much (not a significant % but they do exist and he does need them to win), though I agree with cuse that it probably backfired.

2020 isn't gonna do much either, only 3 seats are winnable for dems and that AL seat is obviously toast. The left is increasing their demands and they aren't going to be happy when it's impossible for them to get them and they are too dumb to know that.

The Senate is going to be Republican pretty much forever until Puerto Rico/DC are admitted as states, unfortunately. It's important to recognize this.

Today's polls:

Heller +7. This is really bad.
Cruz +9. Expected
Bredesen +2. Outlier?

Hurricane Michael has to be killing Bill Nelson in FL. Scott is all over TV constantly, looking like he's getting **** done, Nelson has done a couple of weak phone-in interviews where he does dumb stuff like remind people not to go outside when the eye passes over, thanks grandpa.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this one swing back and forth. It's tight and people generally don't like Blackburn at all, even deplorables.

TN is weird. On the Gubernatorial side, the GOP primary was contested by two people who did nothing but campaign on how much they were just like TRUMP and one guy who was basically a standard pre-TRUMP-era replacement-level GOP rich guy businessman. The old-style republican guy won that race, yet Blackburn has chosen to go super-HAM campaigning on her TRUMPy bonafides.

The Tennesseean (local Nashville paper) is reporting Blackburn +14!

https://www.tennessean.com/story/new...ll/1646568002/